Bob Chill

I've been in MD since 72. I remember A LOT of dry cold. Feb 79 is when I became afflicted. First blizzards will do that to a young kid's mind. Our area always has and always will have really sh!tty multi year periods of low snow and high warmth. Periods of the 80s sucked, same eith the 90s and 2000s and 2010s... It's just how we roll. Increased frequency of big storms actually makes the last 20 years pretty damn good. Plentiful 10"+ storms compared to any previous period since I've been alive. Frustration is engraved in the MA DNA but big storms are more frequent. Cold/dry 70s weather sucked in comparison to warmer/bigger storm times we're in now.

Lol poor Loudon. I'll cherish my .1"

Agree. Writing something off this far away is dumb. These all or none everything perfect setups are getting tiresome though. No wiggle room ever this year. The gfs just repo'd the 36 hour storm to add more salt to our wounds

What a mess. Had this come together....probably a nice wet snow Gfs didn't think 1 whiff was bad enough so it tossed in a quick second one just for fun

I'm not talking about the op as 18z only goes out 90 hrs. Eps goes out to 144

EPS is keeping the streams separate so the solutions with a storm climbing the coast are very compact and warm with no big shield to the nw of the low. I'll post the control run in a minute. It's a good example

It's actually worse than 12z. It's an ugly run

Low location plot looks good but under the hood sucks... lots and lots of rainstorms and half of them are sliders. Not a good run at all imo

PSU's infamous Jan 2011 storm is the high bar

The thing that really sucks about the 18z gfs is that if 72-96 hours of snowfall dropping 1-2' doesn't verify we have to listen to Ji implode daily for weeks.... oh wait, he already does that. We good

Marginal temps. Still .75 qpf

Reminds me of JFM 2014. Not a perfect match in the upper levels but waves running along a pretty strong thermal boundary isn't complicated. Just need "the hose" pointed in the right direction. The gfs solution fits the ens for the period. What's another 10 days of waiting? Easy peezy

Lol. Gfs with the back to back vorts and a 36 hour snowstorm. I won't complain but skeptical would be an understatement

The d11-12 deal on the gfs actually has a legit block. Numerically the NAO would be in the vicinity of -2sd

Don't have enough evidence with the FV3 version yet but the old gfs did school the euro fairly often with handling the northern stream.

Gfs and euro are really far apart with the NS. Gfs is dead set on amplifying and bringing it north.

Kobe news is really digging into me. I loved him as a player. Not even a lakers fan and I'd watch any televised game just to see him play. 13 year old daughter was the second oldest. The other 3 are 17, 3, and 7 months. Just devastating news...

We've already waited 50+. Another 10-15 is a cakewalk

Me too and I've done some crazy S in my life like skydiving, launching cliffs into water or snow, tearing it up on dirtbikes, etc but some some reason I'm terrified of flying in a helicopter. At least in a plane you have a chance. Even with the Capt Sully miracle. They all lived. Helicopters are scary AF

Looking at all guidance as a whole there is growing evidence making the case that next weekend is a phantom irt a big snowstorm (or any decent snow event). I'm not writing it off yet but I've lost most of my interest in it for now. Gut instinct is telling me the cmc/gfs/icon ops are going to lose the big snowy coastal solutions in the near future. It's very complicated so run over run volatility will remain. I've seen this happen a number of times in the past. When ens completely disagree with their ops in the medium range the ops usually cave. Maybe it will break the other way for once. We'll see.

Starting wondering if we're tracking a phantom with the 0z suite last night. 12z points in that direction overall. GFS/CMC ops against their own ensembles and now the euro op joins the no storm party. Time to save the GFS/CMC snow maps from 12z because that may be all she wrote here. lol

GEPS agrees with the GEFS with no southern storm next weekend. Both 12z ops showed a big hit but their ensembles strongly disagree.

Gefs has not been good this year overall. Very untrustworthy with just about everything. I look at it regularly of course but I have zero confidence with anything it puts out unless another ens looks similar. Sometimes I wonder if the times it gets it right D15 is an illusion of accuracy and is more a byproduct of coincidence than anything else. EPS has been very good this year. Some folks around here hate the EPS and call others model huggers. Which is silly because my only motivation is to try and be accurate and to do so you should weight the model with the best verification scores over the others.

Agree. It sure looks like next weekend is the beginning of an active period with both the NS and SS. We need less to go right for 2-3 weeks. Pile up the chances and see what happens. All 3 global ens looks similar too so we're not trying to ignore disaster by hugging outlier solutions. We do that well tho

Appears the reason the gefs looks crappy next weekend isn't because of rain anymore. Its due the majority of members not having the southern wave come north. Similar to last night's euro. Beyond that looks very intriguing. A lot of big storms of all flavors. Cluster stripes NC and S VA. I always like seeing that in the mix. It's a clue we may not need perfection with temps. Long way away and wtf knows where all this is going