Bob Chill

Lol what do you see in February? Just general ideas of a having a -epo and/or +pna more often than the opposite. It's unusual how things are failing over the next week. Ens almost got it right but the Canadian ridge is in the way of getting deep cold int the mid latitudes. I saw a cluster of ens members showing warmish/rainish potential a week ago but it was a minority and the clear majority said amplified and cold was likely. Go figure... the minority fail solutions are right this time when the majority has been winning over the last month. It's like a hex... Feb just looks ok imo. Nothing discrete or specific. Just that we could get a couple breaks for the first time all winter

Anything is possible during prime climo but it's not looking good until Feb from what I see. No blocking, no deep cold, and an overall lame h5 pattern for the next 10 days is all I see. If something pops in the mid range it will grab my attention but I'm pretty much uninterested. Tired of chasing ghosts in a stacked against pattern

Snowing in rockville. I'll shelter in place for now

Feb 15 squall was like that for 9.5 minutes

I've scanned models last few days but haven't taken a close look until just now. Long range is suckin. Lol. No way to sugarcoat. Maybe we can squeeze something in this month but it's sure not going to come easy. Unless things trend better quickly, I'm not seeing much of a chance until the last couple days of the month. Things trended from pretty good to pretty bad in 5 days so maybe in 5 days it looks good again

Bingo. Getting crushed this week. I've passed the torch until further notice. As much as I like snow... I like making money better...

The trouble is above 850. Use soundings and look at the 800mb level. Warm nose isn't strong but it's there. We can get lots of sleet with 850s below zero

0z NAM and ICON are almost identical with temps/qpf through 0z Sun. Temps aren't even iffy over a large area. That's not common with storms like this. Might be a red flag. Gfs is almost 10 degrees warmer but gfs is bad with CAD

Nothing will top the Feb 07 sleetstorm that turned into a glacier. My friend was an xray tech and she worked two 18 hour days from slips and sled accidents. Lol ICON is .5 qpf all frozen. I'm sure some is sleet. Models agree most of the area is below freezing for most of the precip. Mid 20s the night before will freeze the ground. Could be an interesting storm for not much snow

Deform Porn starring Highratio Rippage

Extrapolating ensembles is a sure sign winter is a raging dumpster fire.

Haven't seen many good h5 setups lately. This is a really good one. Keep em coming

Scratch my last post. All in 18z gfs.

Been busy AF last few days and haven't really looked at anything in detail. @psuhoffman covered everything but I wanted to post something about the d10 window. Seems crazy that odds favor rain but they do for now so it is what it is. The 12z EPS qpf and snow meteos show just how low our odds are for now. This can change in a blink as it's far out there in time. Some of the rain solutions are surely ice but snowfall is meager considering near unanimous support for precip. QPF Snowfall This comparison will be something I'm watching closely this week. Especially after the 18z gfs showed a path to victory

Following the op but it was an incremental run over run improvement. 18z was friendly. No big shifts or anything but the bleeding stopped... for now

18z euro is souther/colder. Small change but every inch makes a diference in these parts. Run ends at hr90 so don't know if it made any difference.

Radar is an instantaneous snapshot of precipitation. The MSLP panel includes 6 hours of precip

Gfs finally has a more classic setup. That's the good news. Bad news is it's 13 days away and will be gone in 6 hours.

Exactly right. A northern stream shortwave/low draws mild air on return flow. Thing is... models can't get the NS right 3-5 days in advance. Last thing I'm worried about on fantasy op panels is a NS shortwave. It may end up happening but no f'n way the gfs just "figured it out"

Dec 09 was in doubt all the way to hr72 and even then there was plenty of doubt. The second Feb storm was similar. However, first Feb was a long distance telegraphing as was Jan 16. Those 2 storms are the longest lead big dogs I've ever seen.

Unfortunately it's pretty common until inside of 72 hours. The vast majority of our events aren't figured out until inside of 3 days.

You're exactly right. This weekend was a "surprise" chance at something. It was never a classic or good track. Just one of the ways we do flawed around here pretty regularly. The potentially longer window starts after this weekend and that has been the case since we caught wind of a change for the better. Expectations go through the roof the second an op shows a good snow event 5-10 days away.

Yea, I woke up and checked out the 0z and 6z runs and knew right away some of the top end solutions were off the table for good. I'm kinda out on this event unless we get some incremental steps back. By "out" I mean writing off a respectable snowfall. I'll still track and hopefully I get at least an inch. You can still do well but the battle is climbing a hill.

18z eps not impressive and a little worse than 12z. Still high chance of some snow but nothing like the gfs/gefs. Couple inches tops for the most part. 18z eps also followed the slower trend. It negates the positive of colder/stronger high leading in.

No biggie. Euro weeklies are cold to very cold in early Feb and AN qpf. We should be over climo by Valentine's day