Bob Chill
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Everything posted by Bob Chill
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Man, you guys gotta be lovin the 12z gefs. Really upped the odds of a SE frozen event. Considering how far out in time the window is it's remarkable how many member solutions drop snow/ice/sleet in the SE. Hurry up and wait for now but at least there's reason for some optimism
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We need another Sandy type of event in Nov with a Cat 5 up the bay that drops a foot of ice topped with foot of snow with 80mph inland wind gusts.
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Heather Archambault. Science behind big east coast storms that happen between phase changes of the NAO. Ours usually happen when the NAO flips neg to pos. One of the reasons it gets warm after big coastals because the NAO relaxes and cold retreats.
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I do like seeing the gefs and eps picking up on numerous solutions that dump frozen in NC. One of the clues I look for when assessing bigger storm risk. 12z gefs continues its weenie streak. Another very wintry and good looking run.
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Yea, we're 2 synoptic events away from that window. No chance models have anything nailed down. Gut says mixed event likely as it's a bread and butter type of setup and we have a lot of experience with these kinds of deals. If it breaks wrong and is all rain then disappointment won't last long me thinks
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12z gefs looks half decent next weekend. Majority have some sort of front end thump. Acceptable/good out numbers bad/total fail. 3-4 big frozen events this run
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Just havin fun. I know u know. Very abrupt stuff going on compared to what we wete looking at 7-10 days ago. There's not a computer or person who knows how all this is going to shake out. Could be epic or could be abject failure. The good thing is we can just about rule out abject failure as a lock. Fun times figuring this out. Like most of everything I see
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Lol. And a cutter at the same time. Neat panel tho...
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@frd iirc that period was a nothingburger. Big storm hit on the 13th-14th and that was the only notable period of Jan that I can remember.
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ICON just layed an egg for next weekend. Slightly different progression from 0z. Lol
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Nice truck man! My next is a 3/4 or 1 ton diesel. Might go Ram/cummins. Love powerstrokes but g damn they are pricey.
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We should celebrate any prog that shows it's possible to snow going forward. The current ugly period looks like it will end up being a full month of a garbage winter pattern. We got lucky and snuck an event in but imagine if that didnt happen. A full month of met winter with a disasterous pattern... At this point I just want to be in the game again...
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We have no way to know how stout or weak that cold airmass will be. If it trends into a piece of crap shallow cold then I'll punt. Nothing is resolved other than some sort of precip event is likely and there might be some cold in the vicinity.
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I don't disagree except for towing through a LES blizzard. It has decent insulation and a propane furnace so we wouldn't freeze to death. Just might get stuck for a day or month or so
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0z EPS was a notable step towards a favorable outcome (not all rain) next weekend. I don't disagree with anyone about the flaws but spiking the all rain football can come back and bite. There is a deep/cold airmass in advance that needs to be scoured. The whole setup to me looks like a common front end thump/mix/rain or dryslot. It's not convoluted or unusual. It's a bread and butter setup that can break good or bad.
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Yep, I booked a week with our RV at Myrtle first full week of April. Hope it's 80 that week. I'm quickly learning the most stressful part of owning an RV is planning ahead and booking sites. Maintenance and towing is simple compared to reserving. Some have to be booked a year in advance. Others you have to compete as sites are released on a rolling basis.
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Gefs is pretty gung ho on the snow/ice/rain deal next weekend. The run should be age restricted too cuz this is straight porn
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@psuhoffman there's some irony with the aleutian/npac ridge that's been terrorizing our weenies for the last week ends up becoming a -NAO. The h5 loop is comical if it goes down like that.
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Gfs and icon have the same idea at the same general time. Getting that extra confluence going is keep hp anchored and sfc winds are out of the north until precip starts. Cold dry air too. This is becoming a good ice setup
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Lol. This would be an epic snow to ice
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This could be a long track where models lock in on some sort of CAD with a juicy slug of qpf and not waver that much. Maybe by D5 we see globals all agree and not change much from there. Let's hope it tracks under us...
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Nice improvement in the Atl for next weekend on 0z gfs. Solid mids too. All CAD'd up
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Hypothetically... if the -EPO digs in through Feb we could end up with a respectable winter (non disaster) and potentially above climo. One thing about big blocking is it slows everything down to where chances are far between. Blocking would up the odds of a big event but lower the odds of a lot of events. I'm fine with amplified progressive flow during prime climo. If everything gets all blocked up then we better get a big event.
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Brutal news.... Dog walk tonight will be 2112. Greatest album side of all time imo
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I'll take the under on too much blocking every single time. Lol Gefs obviously continues the theme. We're pretty much locked in for a -EPO period and a return to colder temps. The storm next weekend is unlikely to be all snow. Beyond that everything and anything is possible
