Bob Chill

Yep, we'll prob see numerous versions of what the GFS just spit out. Perfectly fits the lr pattern on the ens. All options on the table of course but if there is a precip event during the d9-12 period it will likely not be all snow but could still be plenty of frozen. Beyond that (and way out there in fantasyland) things could evolve towards a clean snow setup. So far everything remains on track for a return to winter sometime around the 18th.

I'm sure you onky like 1 of these solutions but it's a bit of an eye opener seeing how many members have 2 frozen events between the 18th-24th. Best GEFS run yet for activity. Maybe we get a region wide 2-4" with a layer of sleet and ice on top to build a concrete base and then get a big all snow storm on top of that. That's exactly what P3 is. Lol

Looks like we won't be getting much sleep beginning in about a week. Anyone who's insane like us and stays up for the euro when things are ripe needs to plan accordingly

18z gefs says tune up your ice scraper. I've never seen so many long range snow to ice storms on an ens run. There are some big snows in the mix but the theme of the run is snow to ice or just ice starting around 1/16 but gets really busy from the 19th onward.

Blocking? Dude, I gave up on that a month ago. A -NAO could pop out of nowhere but the AO is likely to stay + imo.

Starting around d9 on both the GEFS and EPS there are a number of mixed precip solutions and it makes sense given the mean h5 look. I know everyone is dying for a clean coastal with perfect conditions (who wouldn't) but that won't come easy from what I'm seeing. We have at least 8 days of shutout to discuss. So far so good imo

Yea, it was definitely a "wintry winter" but ice/mix/mess was far more common that clean snow iirc. I could be wrong cuz that's a loooong time ago.

Yep, but man did we have some luck on our side during those periods. Ridge/trough axis kept lining up. Don't forget 93-94 as that was a very similar pattern with much different results.

I kept seeing the CFS weeklies going in that direction and it made sense that we could *potentially* end up in that type of regime so nice to see it showing inside of 15 days now. I think the -EPO is going to be legit and not a fantasy. How everything else breaks is hard to say. Assuming we do enter a +PNA/-EPO/+NAO regime we should all know what to expect as we have a lot of practice. 2014&15 had a bunch of luck on top of a decent pattern. 93-94 has almost no luck unless you like ice. Cold at times is a lock with a hemispheric pattern like that. Ptype is at the mercy of luck/timing.

EPS says welcome back Jan/Feb 2014 and Feb 2015. EPO starts building d6 and much faster with that feature compared to any recent run.

@psuhoffman EPS is going Feb 2014/15 down the line. lol. I may score a lucky guess with that if it happens. Looks pretty cold d10+. Not just here but the eastern 2/3rds of the conus.

Take a look at the run over run h5 delta on the EPS. Marked improvement building the EPO ridge

Another promising EPS run coming out. Speeds up building the -EPO ridge and is decidedly colder in the east d9+ than the 0z run. Looks like a messy gradient pattern begins around d9 that continues to improve after.

GEPS looks like the GEFS but quicker. Half decent by d10 but this is nice to see. Just like the GEFS but quicker/better. -EPO/-NAO/+PNA and with the trough near Hawaii the STJ may be a player down the line.

We're at least 5-7 days away from any shot at a d5 event so you may want to take a break for a while. The only things that will be discussed here are outside of your range.

Don't waste your time. The fact that the response was meh tells you that you are dealing with an irrational person so trying to be rational is futile. The fact that we're consistently seeing an uptick in activity as we move forward is good. Expecting any type of consensus on a discrete event d10+ is silly.

Is it?

I looped the members. BUSY is a good word. Quite a few mixed/ice events during the period but some legit coastal shellackings in the mix. Best GEFS I've seen d10-15 all winter. Similar to what the EPS is doing. Seeing the legit coastals on the run was nice because they have been few and far between on the GEFS for basically the entire winter.

All in. GEFS is hinting at a transition towards a legit storm look for these parts. This panel is only a couple small adjustments away to put the MA in a good spot for a decent storm. No idea if it's right but between all ens guidance I'm not worried about being stuck in a shutout pattern for too long here.

12z gfs spit out exactly what we were just talking about. lol. As long as we get a foot of it I'm good with ice.

This is what I'm thinking too. Ens are active with cold around but it's not a good/classic setup so mixy/messy is the most likely outcome unless we time something well again. No way to know anything irt timing d10+ of course. All signs are slowly pointing towards a period where we won't be torching and it won't be dry.

It's been that way since thanksgiving. Windows opening and closing. Today wasn't even much of a window but worked out anyways. Would be nice if our next event is all snow with cold surface to start

Appears ens guidance is moving towards the idea that we may get another event inside of 2 weeks. Gefs has looked like utter crap for the 18th-22nd until 18z today. Long leads are always muddy and scattered witn discrete events so I don't focus on any single solution. I like using the meteos for activity in general. For d10-15 this is pretty busy. Epsecially considering how lame the previous 4 runs have been. I would feel more confident if the gefs and eps looked more similar in the upper levels. Maybe we see the gap close within a couple days. EPS has had 3 good/steady runs in a row. Get another 3-4 that stay busy with the same general pattern and it's prob going to be right. I'm not hyping the period at all as it can go poof in an instant so I'm just looking fpr consistently at this stage. So far I like most of what I'm seeing for another chance this month with the caveat being the prog'd upper level pattern is decent but not great and not a big storm look.

Even with the large upper level differences between the EPS and GEFS the 18z GEFS is pretty busy d10-15. Majority of members drop frozen and a handful are pretty good. The 18-21st window keeps looking better. We have 10 days of deadspace to get through first so patience pills will be needed

Back to back powerful north altantic ulls moving through the 50/50 region and create a pretty stout -nao ridge in their wake. Looks like it's a byproduct of the NA weather pattern and not from europe. Sick d15 panel to enjoy for another 6 hours or so