Bob Chill

I've raised the white flag for any type of long duration good regime this winter. Base state is hostile and time is just about up on turning that around. Doesn't mean we're doomed. Just need to treat every possible window/event in isolation as they present themselves and not forget the general base state isn't good. Is what it is. I'm not even bummed anymore. I'm ready for spring. I'd love a storm or 2 or 3 of course but if nothing breaks right then so be it. Can force a circle in a square or whatever the saying is.

Human nature is to find reasons/explanations for everything. With weather we can "make a case" for just about anything but in reality weather does whatever the F it wants. I don't use any type of "streak" except maybe the PDO and AO/NAO. They do follow some sort of multi-decadal pattern where a bias towards + or - does prevail for a time. Even then, any given year can break out from whatever it's "supposed to do". I honestly think the closest analog to weather is the stock market. The absolute best in the business with the most powerful computers and endless data still only hit 50-60% of the time. That can be offset with risk mitigation because you actually have control over keeping your losses small and let your winners run. Weather cannot be controlled AT ALL. We could get 3 blizzards between now and the end of March and the only explanation is luck and chaos.

Actually it's been the opposite this year on average. Control has been stingy AF. The only time it's posted is when it's good. That's not very often....

A lot of evidence showing up that says the GFS slider solution is on crack but it has the CMC in its corner. Euro has the Ukie. Cage Match: Europe against North America

Euro still sucks but a nice step in the right direction in the upper levels. Little more confluence and it's at least partially snow. I'll take it as a win.

GEFS has been really sh!tty this year. Jumpy AF and gets reasonable ens range stuff wrong regularly. I really don't trust it at all anymore. It's no different than just guessing yourself unless the pattern is really stable. Any model should get that right though.

I have a gut feeling it will be quite different than 0z but still suck eggs

12z gefs doesn't support the suppressed solution much at all. A mix of ok hits and/or rain for the most part. Decent agreement that the shortwave/ULL makes a run at us. Some west tracks in there for sure. ETA: after looping the member solutions there is a cluster with a slider. Pretty much an equal mix of slider, snow, mixed, and rain. Basically the GEFS says all options on the table and the model has no idea what will happen yet.

Just drink 18 coronas the night before and call in the morning and just say I'm sick from Corona. Perfectly truthful and 100% chance of getting off work.

I didn't. The 0z euro control did. Each weenie must decide for themselves if they believe a control ens member 330 hours in advance. La la lockitup

Link?

I'd have to review Jan 2016 again because my detailed memory of the upper levels is lacking but there are structural similarities. Unusual west based block moving lock step with the ULL and a beast 50/50 in place. If it's going to be a one and done year let's do it this way...

At least look at the multi param panels starting at hr330. It even reminds me of Jan 16... When you only have fantasy digital snow it's nice to see a really big fantasy storm even if the odds are terrible.

Did you look at the euro control from 0z? MA special. Just like the 09-10 storms. Big hit with WAA followed by a CCB shellacking. You get almost 2 feet. The only issue is it's d13-14. Big ones are sniffed out early and we're due and it's Feb and blah blah blah.... ETA: lol- it's a blocked 36-48 hour storm. dropping 1.5 - 3"+ of QPF region wide. Did someone mention the 0z control last night? One of the best digital storms of the year.

I didn't like 0z ens suite. If anything the 0z runs strengthen the case for a nothingburger more than showing promise. We'll see if that flips here over the next few hours.

lol- I gotta stop talking about kicking bunnies and stuff. I'm making someone angry

Yea, Aspen isn't favored with NW flow. W or SW is money for the central rockies. Abasin added another 6" to the 14" at 5am so sitting at 20" and is expecting another foot. My buddy is sending me texts every couple hours... in a very antagonizing but funny way. lol. JH will be money though. HUGE base mid and upper mountain with massive new snow. Hope you brought a snorkel.

Ukie is sweet. Rippin STJ underneath the ULL.

As long as we can time a slow moving ULL to turn the corner right into transient confluence we're good. Can't really think of anything that can go wrong.

Cmc looks a lot like the ICON at 108

Nothing to hold the 50/50 in place and that's unlikely to change. It's a 3-4 day window tops before winds turn southerly in mids and surface

The modeling for next week ...starting about 5 days ago has been wild...snowstorms to cutters and 70...to sleet to rain...pretty much everything possible Yea, I've been mostly skipping looking too much. Really bouncy. Go to gfs @ hr126 and click previous run 8 times. That's not that far out in time. Models are all over the place for this timeframe

The modeling for next week ...starting about 5 days ago has been wild...snowstorms to cutters and 70...to sleet to rain...pretty much everything possible Tpv se of hudson that becomes a 50/50 and a closed low tracking the deep south. If that's right it's a pretty big block. Could be too much. We'll know in 3 days or so.

No doubt. It's not going to lock in this far out. Just follow the ball. Could be in real time in 3 days

It was closed through 144. Same shortwave from the pac on the icon. It's a slow roller. Forms between d3-4. Something to watcn