Bob Chill

Pretty abrupt shift towards deeper cold pushing into the east next week. We're def not done seeing more changes. No idea if they will be good or bad but the biggest thorn (the size of a telephone pole) in our side this year has been temps. ANY improvement there should be welcomed with open arms. I don't like the pattern in the high latitudes but I haven't really liked that area since Jan 2016 so... lol

Schaeffer is uber conservative with mud and closing. Which is smart because it's mountain bike heaven and very popular. One day with saturated soil and trails get rekt. Black hills has nice hills and rocky soil. I actually forgot about those trail. Now I want to get out there and ride. I like parking at the ten mile creek trailhead. Left hand trail is a lot of fun. Very well cut trail and some good ups and downs.

It's a mud pit in many areas of moco. The strip between the sidewalk and road in front of my house is a mess. My favorite mountain bike trails have been a mess since early Jan. Frozen ground fixes that quickly but what the hell is frozen ground? Haven't seen that since early Dec... It's going to take a looong time to dry out after the next 3 days. It's actually kinda depressing.

Managing expectations is the only way to insulate yourself from the inevitable fails. Here are my simple rules: Clippers cannot be trusted/expected until inside of 48 hours and even then... Progressive shortwaves of any kind cannot be trusted until inside of 72 hours and only when there's full consensus from ops and ens. Outliers can never be tossed at that range. Nams/rgem/herpederps can be tossed until 24-36 hours. Blocked storms are sniffed out early but final track/strength/progression start coming into focus inside of 120 hours. This only applies to whether or not your yard is getting snow or no snow. Amounts are figured out inside of 72 hours but you can usually bank on getting something when all models show snow with good blocking between 96-120 hours. Expecting a d4 15-20" solution is sketchy at best and caution is advised. Ji cannot follow this rule but it does serve as extra entertainment between model runs. Oh, forgot one other important rule for snowstorms. Miller Bs cannot be trusted until after it stops and you are shoveling (or not). Big ice outside of 72 hours is almost always a mirage. Expect a glaze to .25 tops at all times unless something very anomlaous is in place like a true arctic airmass. Then we can bring up the 93-94 analogs for a few days before getting a glaze to .25 tops.

There's a pattern to the posts if you pay attention. They only happen when an event goes poof. I think it's a coping mechanism or something. My coping mechanism is taunting Ji. He enjoys the volley so it's a win win. Lol

Weenie rule #1: this game is 100% a back yard sport. All other yards are dead to us.

Don't bother. He only comes by to express his angst in the face of a letdown and/or bust. No mention of Feb 2010, Jan 2011, Feb 14th 2014, Jan 2016, or any other storm that was nailed a week+ in advance. Jan 2016 was 10 days out. Models are amazing and energy traders make mass fortunes using long range guidance. If people are willing to bet 10s or 100s of millions of dollars on long range weather models then it's unquestionable what kind of value they have. Every rational person here knows that our long range discussion is grounded in the fact that we have nothing else to talk about because it currently sucks. Progressive storms can't be trusted outside of 72 hours but there is no harm in tracking because it's fun. Lastly, long range disco participation is compeltely optional. If you dont believe in it then don't participate... at all. Its not that complicated here

@Ji check out the meteo for moco (jyo is prob better). Looks just like Jackson Hole!!.... in late May....

Even if my yard only got 3-5" with the 1 good event this is still a pretty good showing in # of events and snow totals. There is no comparison to how awful this year is in my mind... 11/15/2018: 2.2" 1/12-13/2019: 11.4" 1/16/2019: 1.7" 1/29/2019: 1.5" 2/1/2019: 1.5" 2/10/2019: .7" 2/20/2019: 5.1" 3/1/2019: 1.7" 3/8/2019: .7" 2018-19 Season Total 26.5"

I don't believe summers are indicative of winters. Some of the hottest summers on record are 1995/2002/1978. There's really not much of a correlation outside of DC. DC has been consistently running warmer for a decade mostly due to UHI and terrible reporting station location. Doesn't explain all of it though... it's consistently running warmer because the globe is consistently running warmer. Can't ever deny that until data shows otherwise (unlikely before I'm dead without a massive volcano or meteor strike. I could do without either. lol)

@psuhoffman after living in md for 40 of the last 50 years I've learned loud and clear that every single year has fair and even odds of a disaster except mod ninos. Otoh- I've learned that good years are pretty rare and should be cherished no matter what.

Oops. Deleting... posted on a whim with no intention of poking fun at a disaster. I'm not that guy and apologize

I'm rooting for a +5 AO at the same time the mjo is +4sd in P6 just to see what happens... at the beach

Just can't get past the "might go poof" range dammit. I don't consider these types of disasters to be rug pulls though. Need to survive 72hrs out for that. At least this winter has been letting us off the hook early instead of kicking us in the kidneys and punching us in the throat. Still feels the same tho... I'll be back next time something looks reasonable. Whenever that is.

Sucks seeing a string of weak runs. At least we're not inside 72 hours. That would be a dagger. Been awhile but I've seen more than a few events trend from almost nothing to a good hit in the d3-4 range on in. 2013-14 was stuffed with them but this ain't no 13-14...

I'm going to start the long range winter 2020-21 disco thread. Brb

Snow depth gives me almost 1". Might be the second largest event of the year!

The op is regular high res through hr90. The control (lower resolution) goes out to 144. Eta: going off memory so might be wrong

18z euro control gives you 2" with 3" up near thurmont. Very good track too.

The EPS will almost always follow the op inside of 5 days. I'm not at all surprised it backed down. If the 0z op is a good hit then the ens will follow. This will continue every 12 hours for a couple days.

I don't track strat stuff and don't know enough about the topic to explain anything. The correlation between the strat and troposphere is really difficult because it only matters sometimes and not others. The only indicator i use for the strat is that if people are talking about it often it means winter is going terribly wrong. 100% accuracy with that indicator. When there is no hope in modeland for the troposphere some people focus on the strat while smoking the hopium pipe. Lol. Nah, that's mean because there are a number of amazing weatherheads who really know their stuff. After the last 5 years Judah Cohen is no longer one of them. Lol. Ok, that was funny.

Shortwave is flatter with a bit more confluence above us. Extrapolation wouldn't be fun but it doesn't really matter yet. We still in the praying the shortwave doesn't go poof mode. I doubt we get full consensus until inside of 72 hours. Flow is ripping across the US. Impossible for ops to get fine details right

Yea, if everything works right. If I had to guess right now I'd say 1-3" west of 95. There's potential for 3-6 or even more but we are who we think we are.

18z gefs follows the EPS d10+ and is pretty weenieish. Now both globals show promise. We've been waiting for PD3 for 17 years. Can't rule it out yet. I also thought the gefs looked much better than 12z for the weekend deal. Westminster death band now showing. Too bad psu is going to miss this event. I suppose 2-3' in Jackson is a little better than our 2-3" so maybe he doesnt care

Chicken