Bob Chill

I considered spreading ice melt last night (hate doing that) but figured feb sun angle even with clouds would do the heavy lifting. Lazy decisions are the correct decisions sometimes. Lol

Midrange has been overdoing (sometimes substantially) precip/amping. If that's the case again, a weaker storm would be an even better outcome imo. We'll see how it goes. My gut says thurs wont be the juicy deluge as depicted right now. Still going to be a mess but more of a good mess and less of a bad mess is discussion worthy at this time.

Even with the old gfs known biases with cad, the 12z run shows impressive staying power if you ignore verbatim temps and focus on surface winds. I didnt realize how much it has shifted in just the last 5-8 runs.

Look at 10m winds on the gfs @ hr102 (18z thurs). STILL ne surface flow. Click previous run 5+ times and see how it's trending. No hint of southerly flow now. NE winds all the way down to the carolina's. Strenghtening confluence is doing some dirty work. Euro's version obviously even more stout. Interesting. And only d4 now.

Jokes aside, while too far north for a sweet outcome, there is decent compressed flow/confluence to our north showing up and it's beefing up the surface hp pressing the cad wedge. Still crap flow in the mids and that usually = less snow/more sleet than modeled by gametime. But we're pretty far out in time. Fair to say that an impactful event is becoming more likely as we move thru time.

I've found that when powdery snow is in short supply (or no supply) a couple 8 balls of powdery premium peruvian blow fixes everything and then some.

Dude, it's the weekend. A long one at that. Stop being grounded in logic, facts, and smarts and weenie out a little. We can deal with the cold wet reality when it gets here. For now it's all about digital blues no matter how silly they may seem

Tons of precip so it cant be that. Must be temps. This discussion reminds me of the old lite beer commercials

G'dammit! I saw the euro for thurs then came here and found out there was was lettuce @ 850mb and a cheap white bread bun at the surface. Maybe next time

Look at hr135 surface temps and precip panels. Lol. Most stubborn cad wedge in history

Dont worry, i wont be around much longer at this rate. I'll wait until after it dumps if I come back next year

I like a lot of people here. No doubt. But being straight honest, my time back reminded me why I shouldn't spend too much time here. The fun is fleeting at times and I have enuff un-fun stuff in my life to fill up my un-fun allotment

EPS is prob misleading. Lower resolution and imperfect snow algo. My guess is many of the "good snow" solutions aren't much different than what we saw today. I will say that it's entirely possible an undetected NS shortwave could carve down front the lakes and changes things quickly. If that were to happen, eps would jump on en masse. Seems to be how it works in the midrange nowadays

Man, it's hard ice crust on the sidewalks. Need studded boots to walk up my driveway. Straight dangerous. My road was treated not long ago but the sides are getting crusty now anyway. Overperformer imo. Xray techs will be pulling all nighters in the emergency rooms.

@stormtracker straight up won the internet, dropped the mic, disrobed, and walked out of the room swingin' today with that post. Mindblowingly awesome.... lol. I try to be funny around here but that is some triple next level sh!t man. Wow

I extrapolated radar out just a little to the 27th and we good. It aint over dudes. This one is ours

That's why im sad about the disaster on Tuesday. How did we lose our 13 degree cushion Digital cushions are weak AF. One accidental ctrl+alt+delete and it's over

Those pixie flakes have to be the drizzle version of sleet. No way a pixie flake is surviving the descent alongside raindrops and pellets. It's backwards logic

Starting to get impressive out there. Icicles have connected with the ground under my wifes car. My truck sits much higher but even those icicles are trying to connect. Street is crust covered. Not bad for daytime zr/sleet in mid Feb

After everything I've witnessed since making an arguably poor decision in returning, I have a hard time caring what anything says beyond 48 hours anymore other than noting that precipitation is still in the forecast. This is def not a year for long track or even medium track anything. Too much mental effort that loses 90% of its value just 6-12 hours after the exercise. I'm here for just the lolz again

Think of it like this. Enso is macro. It can have a pronounced effect on the winter period as a whole. Snow is micro. We get hit sometimes in the dumbest setups and epically fail with great ones no matter what enso is doing. I look at enso as an opportunity multiplier (or subtractor) in a general sense but wx is waaaaay too complicated to make broad lump statements. On paper, 2013-15 is a disaster from a macro setup. But it snowed its eyeballs out anyway. It would be dumb to root for that persistent upper level pattern if you like snow. But it ended up one of the most active back to back winters in decades for snow. AO is macro too. We always want a neg AO but we've had plenty of acceptable storms with a neutral or + AO and wasted more than a few long duration -AO periods because other things got in the way. Things that nobody can possibly predict until it's really close in time. Just watch the cruel irony of wx as we waste what appeared to be beautiful pattern at first and then when the pattern breaks apart into hippo diarrhea and a coastal hits us anyway. Long range is nothing more than an educated guess at the opportunity multiplier or subtractor. Ground truth of snowfall is nearly a real time sport. They can't be combined because it's impossible on nearly every level. The randomness of how we snow will always contain a large % of unpredictable randomness. For these reasons, long range to me is nothing more than an exercise in understanding how much is and isnt working in our favor. Ground truth cares little about either

Psu just said it's ovah. See ya next year or the one after that or the...

Sleet and grains have done some work in the hood. Road is now covered. Looking more wintry every hour out there. No complaints

Thursday was never shown as a pure snowstorm and you know that. Euro shows snow to wintry mix to rain This would be a win for us imo Ji. It's a long ways away and future changes will keep coming. Any run that shows the knife edge within a reasonable distance is a net positive. Who knows what we'll be looking at in a few short days. Real cold is nearby. Lots of precip is overhead. I'm not jumping to any conclusions yet. We've trended the wrong way a lot last few weeks. Now that it's ugly instead in the mid range, maybe... just maybe the trend works the other way. After what we've all experienced since mid/late Jan, I'm def not spiking any footballs before the short range starts agreeing... and even then....

Love this post matt. We only briefly met in rockville a few years back but I always appreciate your thoughts/posts and really like the way you think. I feel like I know you better than some of my real life friends. I'll eternally root for your yard to get destroyed no matter where you move around to.