Bob Chill

No worries g man. I'm outta here tonight when I fall asleep. It's a lock. If the hook gets set this week, my limited posting will be late at night or before 8am. I'll keep my current avatar because it looks to be appropriate for a while and easy to spot. Psu, cape, matt, and all the other longtimers can do the heavy lifting until then. Make sure they dont build a SER or -PNA while I'm gone tho

Oh boy, the upper level red and blue schlong sword fight pattern inbound. Hide yo kids and hide yo wifi. And make sure you protect your weenie.

I'm not trying to be condescending. I'm speaking for the group. I'm not jumping all over a single post. I'm trying to slow down a repetitive pattern that literally over 1k people read daily during events. I've only been legit active again here since Friday night and since then, you constantly ask for specifics and back yard comfirmation (directly and indirectly) for a good outcome. The uncertainty of it combined with hardwired deep rooted need for snow (we're all the same) is getting to you and it's obvious. Yes, it's frustrating. I have over 15 straight years on this board feeling that same exact frustration. Thing is, nobody here can accurately give you the confirmation you're looking for and neither can a weather model. You dont seem at ease with any answers given so you keep asking. Go back and read all your question posts after each model suite since Friday night and then consider my original post again. I'm not trying to be an ass. I'm trying to help you become a better and more enjoyable poster here. Back in 2006 I got my chops busted HARD on EasternWx from long timers for a lot of similar reasons. I didnt get mad or offended at all. Quite the opposite actually. I took the advice to heart and improved ever since. That's what this is about. Not me being a jerk trying to piss you off for sadistic pleasure. Your yard has a much better chance at good snow after today than mine and imo your yard doesnt have good odds either. But that doeant mean you 100% for sure wont get hit flush with pt 2. It's down to pulling off a smallish miracle (imo only).

Man, you run yourself ragged with specifics. Look at the time stamp on the delayed band and consider many model runs are still in front of you. That "band" will change locations and intensity every six hours. The only thing you should be worrying about is whether it stays within 50-75 miles of you or turtle heads back up to PA where the most probable climo location is. I understand your need for specifics. I really do. But we're like years away from NWP to be able to pinpoint this kind of stuff that far out in time. If it's still in existence with a reasonable proxity in 24-36 hours, then you can sweat all over the 30 pixels on the map that matter to you.

Had a mini version of that here. Flakes are taking their time falling I suppose. Best rates/flakes (not impressive but notably different) happened after the band on radar was moving out.

Seems counter intuitive but with an AO prog'd to go that negative, if the NAO keeps diving amwx will need a new weenie subforum for the FL panhandle. Blocking itself doesnt produce storms obviously but every nosedive and relaxation provides a window for a sig storm. Interesting to see just how cold guidance is hinting at now. TPV being very displaced in Feb is productive in our region. You dont have to go far back in history to confirm this idea. Just for giggles as I've literally have only briefly scanned lr guidance off and on all winter so far, and I'm not in tune like the heavy lifters... but... I do see potential for a general idea something like this: Not much of a chance for a big clean storm storm during the period leading into and shortly after the arctic front but some sort of west track cad, modest trailing wave/anafront, or clipper style event would be the most probable way to score something quickly. Unless it backs way off in depth, cold shots like this can really dry things out all over the eastern half of the conus so there could be boring period before the next big chance window opens. Snow could come easy regardless of track too. Need the NS to keep dropping shortwaves relatively close together to maximize the chances and avoid ZR to rain after an extended cold period. No idea whatsoever how active the NS will be but persistance argues against any extended lull in precip/storm chances. IMO- we're only getting started today. I'm expecting a compressed active winter period along the east coast in general thru the majority of Feb. Nothing specific on guidance telling me this. Just my personal experience. This doesnt translate into multiple stacked up events here. It could but not something worth discussing today. This is the first time I'm interested in the LR all season. But I'm busy AF so I'll let you guys sweat the details until something sets the hook in the mid/short range

Careful with this hobby around here. Instead of a happy retired MD you'll end up a deranged lunatic who needs an MD. I want double digits too but expecting it with a storm like this requires the storm to defy a lot of important opposing forces that rarely if ever release their grip. After last night's model runs I was nearly 100% sure double digits would be a freak show instead of possible or likely.

Heh, if that was true then my yard would get 60 feet and everybody else would get 60 flakes. Then I would spam the board with obs and pics like a bot on reddit.

Are you talking about me? Not sure if u are but if so, I don't mute anybody in our sub. Especially longtimers. You could insult my mom and it still wouldnt change that. I didnt get invested in this storm until late tues/early weds but I did see it showing up out in time. My very first thought was I'll only believe an unusual miller b hybrid during a nina smoking my yard when I see it. I'm optimistic always but I never take a suckers bet anymore. Miller bust PTSD is a real thing. I tried to get my doc to prescribe a pallet of valiums but it was a nogo for some dumb reason.

If things pick up like I expect here shortly will that make a difference or is this just how it is? I dont remember you from years past and this is my first time back so there may be some backstory I'm unaware of. Just noticing a pattern just like I do with wx. Not trying to be an ass (kinda sorta)

Is it a coincidence that your yard conditions closely match your default posting vibe?

I caught that yesterday and my initial fear was matt ending up too far west compared to DC. U guys are def in a good spot regardless of the deform snow tomorrow.

Just clicked aroud wx stations at and offshore of VA beach. Forecast was SE shifting to E late. Already due east. Is this significant? Dont know yet but it's certainly not a bad thing. What's going on down there has a bearing on what happens this afternoon with the waa snows. Won't be surprised if radar starts lighting up in these parts again shortly.

Now THAT is quality slant sticking my man!

It cant tell u enough how refreshing it is to see you post obs on the high end of the region. I'm slipping in my old age I guess but for some reason I dont understand yet, I genuinely want you to get more snow than me. ....wtf is that, right?

WOOF!

Cute girfriend dude!

I havent been looking at models much so far yoday but that westward shift of the mix line down by RIC tells me easterly fetch is strenghtening with the coast. Experience tells me that this should fill in the dryslot and/or expand the shield westward over the next hour or so

B4 I go back outside I want to drop a quick thought or 2. NAMs can eat an 8th of mushrooms sometimes but what they showed yesterday made a lot of sense to me. The solutions were literally the most common general outcomes of nearly all previous similar storms. It's debatable that us getting in on any goods keeps this type of event off the blowout loss list and into a well fought close game list that leaves fans feeling ok about the team. Yea, it could be better but man, it could be far far worse too. I'm not the thought police so everybody just do everybody. I get it. Me personally, I'm damn sure not going to let the lack of pt2 ruin today. I'm a battle scarred weenie and the simple fact that my yard is actually getting enough snow to cover everything sets this event apart from adding to my ptsd. Ob: 2.4" so far. Will update when 3-4" piles up. Eta: imo, it's too early to say pt 2 is a fail. History says that it prob will be but we havent crossed the point of no return for surprise coastal love for people somewhere in our sub

Unfortunately yes because much uncertainty from coastal re-development process has been removed now. Surprises are possible always but 100 mile surprises are a bit much at this point if you ask me. I'll gladly take a surprise but so for this is going down like a long list of similar storms. Thankfully not as bad as a cluster of storms that have scarred even the most hardened weenie

Mechanics of a NS transfer are often hostile here for climo reasons and it's hard to beat that. The handoff kills the waa and if the handoff/re-development pushes the max north of us it's something my yard rarely recovers from.

If you really think about it and be honest with yourself, this event has evolved (or devolved) in a very typical and common fashion. I for one am the opposite of surprised. Once guidance centered the jack up in NJ/PA it fit the mold perfectly. This is an overplayed re-run and exaclty why I was "hoping" I would at least crack 6" if things take a turn.

A ruler with a built in math equation adjustment? Yea, that's pretty idiotic with a side order of dum.

Don't worry about that MG. Even if the mix line arrives earlier, all the good front side precip will be over. Depth of mid level cold is really good starting off.

You just gave me my next million $ idea. Weenie breakfast cereal will be on the shelves in 3 months.