Bob Chill

I havent been looking at models much so far yoday but that westward shift of the mix line down by RIC tells me easterly fetch is strenghtening with the coast. Experience tells me that this should fill in the dryslot and/or expand the shield westward over the next hour or so

B4 I go back outside I want to drop a quick thought or 2. NAMs can eat an 8th of mushrooms sometimes but what they showed yesterday made a lot of sense to me. The solutions were literally the most common general outcomes of nearly all previous similar storms. It's debatable that us getting in on any goods keeps this type of event off the blowout loss list and into a well fought close game list that leaves fans feeling ok about the team. Yea, it could be better but man, it could be far far worse too. I'm not the thought police so everybody just do everybody. I get it. Me personally, I'm damn sure not going to let the lack of pt2 ruin today. I'm a battle scarred weenie and the simple fact that my yard is actually getting enough snow to cover everything sets this event apart from adding to my ptsd. Ob: 2.4" so far. Will update when 3-4" piles up. Eta: imo, it's too early to say pt 2 is a fail. History says that it prob will be but we havent crossed the point of no return for surprise coastal love for people somewhere in our sub

Unfortunately yes because much uncertainty from coastal re-development process has been removed now. Surprises are possible always but 100 mile surprises are a bit much at this point if you ask me. I'll gladly take a surprise but so for this is going down like a long list of similar storms. Thankfully not as bad as a cluster of storms that have scarred even the most hardened weenie

Mechanics of a NS transfer are often hostile here for climo reasons and it's hard to beat that. The handoff kills the waa and if the handoff/re-development pushes the max north of us it's something my yard rarely recovers from.

If you really think about it and be honest with yourself, this event has evolved (or devolved) in a very typical and common fashion. I for one am the opposite of surprised. Once guidance centered the jack up in NJ/PA it fit the mold perfectly. This is an overplayed re-run and exaclty why I was "hoping" I would at least crack 6" if things take a turn.

A ruler with a built in math equation adjustment? Yea, that's pretty idiotic with a side order of dum.

Don't worry about that MG. Even if the mix line arrives earlier, all the good front side precip will be over. Depth of mid level cold is really good starting off.

You just gave me my next million $ idea. Weenie breakfast cereal will be on the shelves in 3 months.

Anytime decent green returns "cloud up" the beam shadow, I know it's still going to be good for a time.

Dude, that ruler is waaaay too vertical. Have you learned nothing since joining amwx?

Radarscope for apps and CoD nexrad for websites are fan faves unless something new has come along

Yellows in gtown/gburg. Weenies' second favorite color behind orange.

Mini band #2 setting in. Should crack 2.5cms with this one. My new strategy when my yard is obviously not getting jacked is switching to metric. Coping mechanism. Working brilliantly right now. Should easily crack 5cms before noon.

Oh, it was pretty cold at the surface but as soon as I saw problems in the mids inching closer I knew it was over for me. At least for a big storm. I invested very little time in that storm. Literally less than an hour over however many days I looked at it. I'm not a retired weenie or anything. I'm just not investing jack squat into anything unless it's substantial and practically a lock. My life is too short to keep wasting so much time on something that finds every way possible to disappoint

I'm hitting up meadowside trails on lake frank later with my dog named sativa. Wait a minute. Dog's name is cooper. Dont know where sativa came from. Hmmm

I've already said "this is the way" to several people so I won't repeat myself verbatim. THIS IS THE FOOKIN WAY MAN!

Damn dudes. Did not expect this quality so quickly. Folks just north of me ( @WxUSAF) will be all jacked up here shortly. It's kinda dumpin for just after onset

Ah! Your wife does the heavy lifting and you take credit publicly. When did you start running for office?

First area of decent lift/snowgrowth overhead. Classic scene with legit flakes and lowering viz

This is awesome. I had the most random image of you standing there in the kitchen with glasses on next to a dry erase board holding a laser pointer.

Typically with waa snow, peak rates/snowgrowth hits when warmer mid level air is getting close to messing things up so my brain says final 2 hours before tapering off. This is a complex event though so that rule of thumb may not apply. This is a very technical way of me saying I have no idea. I'll guess 12-2pm

Random pocket of dry air probably and it will be gone pretty quickly

Nightmare #1 scenario off the table. Woke up, ground wasn't bare, and radar matches expectations. Must have started early here. Somewhere around a half inch already. I'm rooting for @CAPE. If anyone deserves a deform boom in a regionwide storm, it's him. Not that wx cares but I do Eta: you'll notice I totally contradicted myself from the first post in this thread. Seeing snow fall laying in bed is like drugs and makes me a little emotional. If the snow suddenly shuts off in my yard, I no longer care about CAPE

Storm blew its load and occluded by that panel. All the good stuff happens during the deepening phase. By hr 72 it's a tired old man ready for bed. Kinda like me right now

I'm not even looking at the panels. Lol. Saw matt's post and the replay button was pressed in my memory banks. 6-8" storm works just fine. I'd like the purple dingleberry on the snowmap matt posted to oooze down our way but good enough as is