Bob Chill

Sorry dude. Read my edit. The reaction you got will happen every time.

Not a chance that anyone here wants you here ETA: change your location man. A harlem guy coming here telling us like it is rubs us the wrong way. Duh. If you're in chevy chase it changes the air in the room

Oh nice. That def works and will be nice and cold. Perfect winter scene inbound. Little different than many events back in dc/va for you... I'm reasonable. I'd like to get 8". Less than 6 would be a bit of a letdown but not much. Especially if there's many hours of snow falling even if it doesnt pile up. I'd say a reasonable high end for my yard is a foot but that wont come easy. A really big event seems really unlikely this go around. 5" tomorrow and 3" with any deform action would be kick ass

If there's any unexpected backyard boom with the longtimers here, I'm rooting for you,

You guys may not feel the same way if the front side sucks and the backside untucks. Trolling spree quickly follows then a melt followed by going dark.

Maybe just go 4-8" and hit the bar

I took the dog for a long walk and skipped waiting for each of the 0z panels like a heroin addict waiting for the clinic to open. My biggest worries are still not much to worry about. If my yard gets what the 0z globals have dished out, it would be high end compared to all other hybrids during ninas. Especially ninas that lacked cold. If that made me mad I'm in the wrong business

Ever consider that the gfs has been running warmer than any other model every single run and then wonder what that likely error has on a depth map?

Don't know about you guys but I need reasons for suppression worry to come back STAT

Not sure about the extreme dryslot and significantly north trend on the NAMs but they aren't budging with the general idea and it's similar to a number of past events. I certainly dont want it to happen but if it is, get it out of the way tonight and let every model do it. The consolation prize would be some extra juice on the front. Not mad at that at all.

It's a very short term model and honestly struggles beyond 6 hours and only a few run to 48 hrs. Might be right but one of the last models I would use beyond 18 hours.

Upper NW climo is closer to mine than downtown by the river imho. I remember many storms where tracker and matt would be surprisingly different. Lots of trees and an extra 300' up changes the game. Which is great for tracker but man, sometimes matt's obs make me feel pretty sad for him.

You've been here a long time and should know the answer. Whichever ones hits your yard the hardest even if there are sacrifices for others.

These storms are pretty fun with surprises in real time. Not huge shifts obviously but as long as your in the game for part 2, anything is possible. Cuts both ways but man, if those yellow and orange stripes setup in our area, the obs are going to be off the chain. I never expected to get raked like I did with the second feb 2010 storm and Jan 16 leading in. But those bands were ridiculous. No model really had that in my yard.

Yea, 0z euro will go something like this http://imgur.com/a/00hGCWL Eta: why wont the gif display? Not allowed or am I too dumb?

It's rather remarkable. I haven't seen it in person but a few of the lakes actually have a long enough fetch and deep af (300-600 feet or something) so they dont freeze quickly. Kinda weird they arent frozen yet but I guess its been warm everywhere. When the wind lines up just right with the right conditions above they create micro snowstorms. I saw a satellite pic when the ground was brown and there was a thin stipe of snow lee of a lake. If I was forced to move to that area, you know where I'm living. Right in that narrow stripe

This is the way

God I hate bringing up this storm but there was a time not long ago where the euro amd everything else lined up a great hit but in real time the upper low wobbled SE and slp ended up tucked and more than a little south of prog'd. This storm's result was a heartbreaker but we're talking a real time shift at hour 0 that the euro missed. It's a perpetual cycle of worry parsing it. A trend of getting the waa totals slashed AND losing the ccb piece to the north is worth worrying about tho. I'm not seeing it yet anywhere

There's some fine detail in the euro run that is causing the disconnect and I'm not going to bother looking for it. We'll see yet another wobble in 6 hours from some other fine detail and on and on. Run looked great to me. I'm still in the deform. Need to stay there

This is true. Luckily, the storm is juiced and waa typicslly saturates the column without too much loss . Models take that into account so it's not a big concern. Not in the same universe as a clipper coming over the apps. Radar loop looks like my yard gets hit solid but if my yard sneezed all my snow would be gone.

Yea, no doubt. The key ingredient is no wasting qpf with warm ground or dicey mids/crappy snow growth. One wrench that could bug a few people if it happens is if sw of us get raked and overperform. That doesnt extrapolate well because weakening dynamics after the birth of the coastal can sometimes hit the dimmer switch. I have a pretty good feeling part 1 wont have any drastic hiccups in the wrong direction. I'm thinking 5" is the most likely amount for my yard at this point. Column is great at the start so ratios may be better than 10:1 instead of less when it's warmer.

29 and feelin fine (i live in a stream valley microclimate when its clear skies and dry air). I'm getting pretty fired up for part 1. WAA snow is the anti-thesis of nerve wracking. Radar extrapolation works, snow is steady, and no frustrating subsidence. The tradeoff is no high ratio heavies. If pt 2 pans out along the corridor it will be very nervewracking. Death bands and subsidence puts winners and losers really close together.

Other than your panic posts, no.

I liked that event and I liked the recent little event. Fun to watch and made everything look great. I knew (for my yard) in Dec that if I was going to get a big hit, 4+ day model progs werent going to tell me jack squat. Too early and warm. I need a very anomalous cold airmass and everything else to break right to be all or big snow. Never really saw that being likely. If it held inside of 2 days I may have jumped in but never got that close to consider doing that.