Bob Chill

I still click through maps when it's interesting. It takes less than 1 minute a day to glance at lr h5 progs. It takes waaaaay too many minutes a day to explain it to people who only want to know "wen snow how much?" Dec was easy to not care about. Sure, there was blocking but it's a nina, kinda warm, and only Dec so for my yard it's usually a no go. North of me is different and they scored. I wasnt interested at anything really. Things have changed and we're seeing some fruit. For whatever reason, our area seems to love compressed 2-3 week active periods. I just ignore details at long leads and wait for something interesting with a legitimate chance in a reasonable period of time before spending more than 2 mins a day looking at model maps. You should try it sometime. It's a helluva lot more fun and since I dont live and die new info every 6 hours, any snow is good snow. Lots of snow is like drugs and stuff

It's the mechanics of a transfer. Not all work the same but in this case the relationship is there because they are closely connected. Dont expect to get top end for both parts and definitely sacrifice some chickens so we dont lose the goods on both parts.

Thanks dudes. I genuinely appreciate it. But unfortunately I will be hit and run for events and maybe chime in on tracking but that's about it. I have big things going on IRL and I simply dont have the time to goof around here without sacrificing somewhere else and I can't do that. Being honest, it's more fun only investing time into (relatively) sure things at close leads. Long range tracking is mostly (or entirely) charity work with no paycheck. Stopped being rewarding and that started happening before last year.

You seem to be a pretty good dude and I've always liked you around here so please dont take this personal... YOU STAY RIGHT THE F WHERE YOU ARE MAN! CAPICHE?!

Nope. It's weenies dropping 500mbs of lsd and tripping out because colors and animation and stuff

Def dont want to go down memory lane here but I'll never forget standing outside at 1am with mod snow and a juiced radar thinking I cant wake up in the AM and see. I should have never woken up. The radar loop was depressing. It was like someome flipped a switch and the lights went out right overhead. Always a balance with hybrids. NAM juiced the WAA but that's a direct result of pt1 dynamics holding on longer. Hence the big dryslot. Good thing the only good model on the planet is the RGEM. For now anyways

Dude, the ICON's sole purpose as a model is to give us hope when real models dont. Otherwise there is no purpose. I tossed the 18z run the second the rgem held

Man, that's an exciting panel. These kinds of outcomes happen sometimes so it's believable. Sometimes models crush people but under the hood doesnt resemble how it really works. Rgem just tossed out back to back perfect scenarios for our region. Hard to not like that but again.... mesos prob aren't the most skilled this far out in time with a major dynamic storm

I told you exactly what to expect last night. You wont do as well with pt 1 as those south of you and you have a better chance for pt 2 than everyone south of you. There's way too much uncertainty to discuss anything specific with pt 2. The range there for your yard is like 0-15" with the odds of the lower end being higher than the top end. But even if models dont specifically show a big pt 2, if your still in the envelope then you can't write off a big upside surprise. You could get under a fgen band and get 6" in less than 3 hours. Or someone 20 miles to your west gets than and you get 1-2". Just let it happen and dont seek specifics that can be given with any confidence.

I havent tracked this threat anywhere in the same universe as you and others here but I did start watching closer on Tues. I knew quickly what kind of storm it is and yard potential. For pt 1 my fear was the typical lose dynamics during transfer and having a repeat of pt 1 for a march storm we dont talk about due to ptsd. Looks like that's almost off the table but never know until you know. Pt 2 is fraught with peril for anyone south of I70 no matter what. It's been proven that way too many times. I was surprised you worried about getting fringed honeslty. That would be an anomaly just like the nova jacks earier this week. I was almost sure that wouldnt happen just like I was sure you should be the last person to be worried about being too far north. I figured climo would prevail and it seems to be doing just that. I dont have big expectations because memory tells me it's unlikely just like all other hyrbid transfers. I expect a good storm but I've burned through some luck in jan 2016 and jan 2019. I'll take my middle of the pack total ad be happy.

Just my opinion and memory but until the current primary has begun the process of the transfer, meso's are prob not the first or second choice for which model is most likely right. Think about how much atmospheric heavy lifting happens before the primary is the coastal. Isn't it more than possible that the mesos would amplify the inherent math errors? Mesos are def very valuable for part 1 now. Prob the first choice at this point. Second part? Idk man. I wouldnt hang my hat or worry about any outcome for part 2. I had the same thoughts with the rgem. I mean yea, it was a weenie on molly run but it's still a meso and there's still a whole lot of big time stuff that needs to happen first.

The older I get the less I care. It's liberating. Obligatory ob: 35 and bluebird skies.

I've been avoiding posting this but if my yard is going to get plastered it needs to be a carbon copy of 2010. I do see some similarities, and just like that storm, the deform ended up surprising a lot of people. There's no reason (yet) to discount that outcome. That said, the differences between this storm and that one argue for areas N-NE of our sub to get plastered and not us. All I ask is to be within the CCB guidance envelope sunday night.

Models rarely if ever take persistence into consideration. Especially at longer leads. I'll continue to expect the same persistence until it stops. Nobody knows when but it's our absolutely most prime climo and all the big pieces are lined up in advance. I'm a strong believer in hot streaks and imho- the storm tomorrow is prob just the beginning. Not saying we're going on a giant coastal heater in any way. But I do think more events are on the way. It's how we roll. Giant streaks of dead space and despair followed by hot and heavy action. Remember mid Feb 2015? Went all season up until then not getting a light green schlong let alone a red one. But the tide turned. This weekend's storm combine with prime climo and solid H5 mean looks on the ens def makes me think the multi year snowless pattern has changed.

You know the drill. You know the rules. You know the most probable outcome for your yard. Wx doesn't give AF about your feelings and neither do I

Nah, unlikely for me as well. Looking at mid/upper level panels the most likely places are clearly N of MD. However, transfer and rapidly deepening coastsls ALWAYS have tricks up their sleeve. If my yard gets thundersnow then something is prob going wrong north of me. Which is my preferred outcome so those that get shafted can suck it.

All major storms have the same things to worry about and be excited about. I dont like to focus on the worry side until I have to. I could make a list of 5 reasons to worry and repost it with every single storm day after day too but theres like 50 people here who already do that.

Really exellent post man. Love it and agree. Personally, I'm pretty stoked to be in an area of the "fgen wildcard". When that coastal gets cranking, there will be rapidly expanding fgen bands pushing outwards. No model can figure fgen jacks until the coastal is resolved. Obviously I'm not in a prime location but I never am. I fully expect thundersnow in our area or just to N-NE. Get under one of those and you can add 3-6" in the amount of time it takes to watch a movie..

Should I still be worried about suppression? I'm totally good with the euro's progression. Surface and mid level low placement def keeps my yard in the game. CCB won't be locked in for nearly 48 hours. Dont run yourself ragged tracking red schlongs. It will move around, grow, and shrink like it has a mind of it's own every 6 hours.

Feb 2007? That was a sleet bomb tho no? And very very rare honestly. But you're right, that was a coastal gone wrong in incredibly rare fashion. Personally, i love that storm for what it was. I mean our area was a legitimate glacier for days.

That's just digital output showing a blip of lower pressure. Low centers are best defined by mslp maps and not those surface panels

They're covering the envelope because it's on the table. Imo- some sleet is prob a lock for everyone near the cities. Can you name any hybrid coastal tracking under us that produced a legit ice storm? I cant either.

Ignore that. When the first round shuts off, warm air moves in above but precip will be paltry. I suppose in your hood that round 2 could start as freezing rain but even then.... unlikely. For our area to get legit freezing rain it almost always involves primary low pressure remaining dominant and tracking west of us. This storm will be the standard snow, dryslot with drizzle and maybe inconsequential zr, followed by praying you get a reach around with round 2

We call it a hobby because we try to hide the truth and because it scares each and every one of us. That same deep rooted fear is why this board exists. We"re all looking for confirmation bias that we're "ok". I can say from 15+ years of experience, there's not one single ok mf'er on amwx. Birds of a feather and stuff.

I also wanted to add 2 more points. Climo is climo for a reason. Latitude, topography, proximity to the coast, and shape of the coastline defines climo. Storms behave in similar fashion for really good reasons. Central PA and N MD get big totals that wouldnt happen in my yard even if the storm went south because orographic influence is powerful. Just like deep creek getting hit with lake effect, C PA and N MD has an extra physical feature to wring out the sponge. I asked my wife if we could buy sugarloaf and move it to my back yard for this reason. She told me it sounds like a great idea if you're legally insane. Well... I am so...