Bob Chill

I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time.

I don't even need to look in the storm thread do I? lol. The irony of participating on the regular sharing a "love" for the same wx but when that wx hits, everyone hates it. And this is an optional hobby with no paycheck. People are plain strange man.

I was just talking in general. I didn't look at the UKIE. The follow up wave with slp scooting out to sea south of us could be more interesting in that regard. Kinda light qpf on the models but I'd guess verbatim it would be a pretty/fluffy snowfall. Time will tell.

This may not be true. It's not an optimal snow growth setup. No crazy frontogen, uppler level dynamics or big lifting mechanism other than isentropic upglide. Will still be pretty snow if the rates are good. I'm not sold on sweet snowgrowth. Think of this as the warm air advection part of a coastal. Not usually a 12/15/20:1 type of snowfall. But it's really cold upstairs so I could be wrong. Someone else or a met can add to or correct my thoughts.

I'm trying to keep my glacier fetish at bay but it's not working... I stinking love complete coverage with a 1" lid of ice/crust on top. Takes forever to melt out and keeps grass covered till the bitter end.

This isn't a clipper/pure NS shortwave. Even with QPF spread out, I'd be willing to bet in real time that it's pulses of moderate snow and not a pixiefest. Moisture source is the Pac down by Baja and the gulf. May not be great ratios depending on a lot of things but I really doubt it's a drawn out flurry event.

at least the answer shows up on search results without clicking. Don't want to leave a jpg "artifact" on the hard drive tho. heh.

H20RR is straight fire today.

Let's not leave out all the Coney Island Whitefish swimming around the docks. Not sure what species that is? Try google and don't blame me for anything. Your keyboard, your decisions.

This is actually a really good PG13 way of putting it. I was thinking dock curds... or worse... I'll show myself the door again.

You need to host a zoom mental heath meeting in here STAT

The pooled up slime around the dock inlets is def the sweat

There's a few areas in the city that work as the unwashed taint

You need to put a couple circles at the base of the friend zone. You know, the friend zone's 2 best friends. I'll show myself the door now

I hate rug pulls too. I get that as much as anyone. But sometimes I see irrational exuberance given the setup. The hybrid had me scared of my shadow start to finish. We maximize those like 5% of the time, get screwed 75% of the time, and 20% of the time we get ok snow. We got ok snow but it felt like the 75%. It's a REALLY TALL ORDER for the thurs/fri deal to drop over 1" liquid over a large swath. We have organized coastals with less. Those mid/short range mega runs always seem to be the kiss of death for having fun. Anything less becomes a disaster sticking point. Is what it is. I get it. I'm here for the lolz nowadays. Models backing down at short range has an inverse relationship with the # of lolz tho

No time to play yet. Just wondering if we've reached the point of the storm being impossible to enjoy no matter what happens? If not now, later today for sure

You kiddin? Slant stickers in this joint scoff at a measly 65:1

I thought it was perfectly clear. Weekly miller A's of increasing intensity until the Mar 93 redux triple phaser.

Gfs had alot of suspicious looks starting Sunday The polar eyeball rules the roost thru the period. No model is going to figure out how it wobbles around more than 3-4 days out and even then.... Looks like it needs visine too.

This is starting to smell like a 6-10 event region wide Agree. If everything lines up for a good hit with the 12z runs tomorrow I'd say it's a lock. Uncomplicated right? I want to maximize the first slug. I have some vague memories of a modeled 1-2 shot and the first one fizzled and the second didnt work as well as thought.

Cmc is light with wave 2 qpf even though it's actually the "stronger" of the 2 waves. I liked the run as much as any of the good ones.

Here's a better one. Might strip the paint off a car if it's sleet

Check out this sounding. That's either sleet or graupel? or something weird. Lol

Surprised nobody mentioned temps were in the low 20s around dc during the mix period. Sand blasting.

Everything looks pretty good to me. How about those gfs surface temps? Warm model is cold. This is good