Bob Chill

For your and my yards, I'd be surprised if either cracked 6"+ or got less than 2". Not really a big spread of outcomes at this point imo. We're both in the heart of the climo boom stripe for this exact setup. If that changes I'll def say as much but haven't really changed my mind much since Wed when I became interested. I've actually become more optimistic in not getting the weenie shaft. No matter what, I'm expecting some people to be posting "raked rippage snowglobe" at some point tomorrow. Might be you, might be me, might be neither, but somebody is likely going to be all jacked up tomorrow morning under some yellows.

This is a storm discussion thread tho. Not weenie therapy or a coping room. Majority of lurkers come here for good analysis and sound information. I see good and bad here as well but I'm not choosing a side and vehemently defending it cuz you know... feelings...

CPC d8/11+ analogs are promising. I like seeing VDay 2007 popping up consistently. Ended up a sleetbomb for many but I'll take a repeat of that setup all day and the day after that. Mixed bag on both d8/11+ but it's not too weenie to focus on the good ones because the upper air pattern is as good as it gets really.

You're focusing entirely too much on verbatim models and not thinking about the mechanics in play here. Yes, models could be right or much more wrong and it ends up a flurry. History says someone gets a pretty flush hit in short order and temps wont make a damn bit of difference for a few hours if it goes down that way. You seem to want to completely prove this as impossible for some reason that I (or anyone) doesnt understand.

I'm sure this has been touched on in the last week because we always talk about it when arctic boundaries wobble around nearby but deep cold (especially with blocking) kinda sucks. Playing with fire is what we want. Sure, clean storms with long duration snowpack is unlikely but so is bluebird teens and single digits for days on end. We've seen a quite a few mid/lr arctic blasts on models last 5 years and very few of them verified with the depth and staying power as shown out in time. Hard to think the next week or so will be any different

With a defined lp storm and meso banding to the NW, I disagree they jumped the gun at all. I got 6" total last storm but impact on roads/travel was pretty minimal because it was stretched over 3 full days. 4" in 4 hours can paralyze our area. Totals and impact are not one in the same. Hoisting a warning for the public is very warranted even if criteria doesnt verify imo

Agree 1000%. Overrunning is "boring" in some ways because the only mechanism for boom is time under the feed. Otoh, overrunning is low stress, (relatively) easy to track, and rarely gets rug pulled in the closing 48 hours on in. Maybe my memory is selective but I swear up and down the 70s & 80s bread and butter snow was 2-4/3-6 overrunning events. I remember watching old school 16k resolution radar tracking the "green feed" right from the smokey mtns to my yard. I'm in on some redux on that stuff

Man, I loved that 2019 storm so much. 11". My own personal jackpot and an unexpected one at that. The problem is my yard only gets a personal jackpot a few times a decade so I'm kinda fooked for a while rn

The 13-15 stretch had some nw busts/cutoffs but that's always a risk when there's full on static eletricity storm dry arctic air to push out of the way. There's nothing really impeding a nw expansion other than it being a single stream compact storm. For those reasons I do think the sig dry model runs today out that way could *potentially* be overdone. But since I'm sitting in the middle I dont care about that stuff really

Yea, I see nearly complete agreement on track and speed. NW side is the only thing really in question. I can see how those to the nw would perceive disagreement tho. Living on the edge is torcher

Just my weenie opinion but models cutting off "decent" qpf along or near 95 will prob be wrong. It's a compact storm but these usually end up more broad to the NW with qpf distribution. I can't think of any shortwave with a defined lp center on the current track that didnt expand in the closing minutes. You can prob rattle off 6 that didn't tho cuz you b past event rainman and stuff. There a few of you northern folks who are literally a hard drive. Must be the cleaner air up there or something

Depends if the snow WANTS to stick. The nicer you are the more it will stick. We should all sing Kumbaya and hold hands before it's too late,

No doubt man. I def wasnt digging at you or anyone with extensive knowledge. It's a hit and run storm. Bands could rip even if all models say no today. The speed itself is a flag that 10" is quite a feat of luck and good fortune. Someome is prob going to approach that amount imo. Who is something I cant answer. My yard will end up somewhere in the middle as usual.

Credit where credit is due always. I like the LoLz around here more than the serious stuff. Online humor is a true art form. One that I will always appreciate because LoLz make you live longer

People whining and freaking out are married to wx models and not thinking about how this stuff plays out. Fast moving storm with potential banding and a side order of temp issues. Not the thought police but expecting more than 2-4/3-6 is user error imo. Sure, boom potential exists but banking on statistical outlier outcomes will give weenies a curb sandwich like 98% of the time

I'll go with karma and proximity to Ji

Just a guess based on experience but I keep thinking we're good until climo window closes. Seems unlikely at this point that there will be an abrupt feb flip like 2010 or 2011. We'll prob just cruise thru Feb enjoying mid range and mostly forgetting about long range. There was a ton of that in 13-14 and 14-15. We're due!

Feb 15 was the extreme example. We keep taking giant hits off the no snow for you pipe all winter while parts of the NE looked like Jackson Hole. But that arctic front and "super squall" flipped the switch HARD. Could do no wrong afterwards. It wasnt even a "prime pattern" as it was ripping fast progressive and almost entirely EPO driven. Give us 5 of those winters in a row and we'd be lucky if 2 were solid. Unless you like ice of course. I do but only a foot or more. Wx loves to embed winning and losing streaks. It's just how it is. There is basically no such thing as a smooth "climo winter". I'd prefer one of course but a hot streak is better when they happen.

I didnt look at it much like that all all until it was too late. The more you know, the more you are compelled to focus and commit. It's a slow evolution. Once you're "in" it's almost like an addiction (or def is an addiction lol). Certainly not a harmful addiction in a physical sense but there is still a price to pay. Of course personality plays a huge role. When I really want to do something, nothing will ever get in the way. But when you find yourself teetering on allocating too much time (or inappropriate times like 0z euro on weeknights eg), it's good to be fully aware and honest with yourself that the hobby isnt stealing energy from other more important aspects of life. Being honest with yourself is the hardest part cuz brains and addictions and stuff.... Just a couple thought pennies and additional keyboard puke to consider.

You'll like this post... Many of us have noticed and discussed the hard evidence that our area LOVES compressed winter periods. Some winters never come of course but sometimes when a switch flips we suddenly start backing our way into things or enjoy all kinds of mid/short range "pop ups". Imho only, the switch flipped last weekend and it's not march 5th this go around. Not all events will work out of course but I strongly doubt boredom or sadness will return with vigor until this period shuts off. Whenever that is.

Cuz we live in the mid atlantic! Duh!

I wasted a lot of time man. Looking back it's a bit shameful (to me personally). I'm always ambitious and striving for something. Very goal oriented with little fear of failure. But I chose to use these strengths the wrong way for far too long. Stay in the nice balanced lane of fun, recreation, and a side order or learning. Trust me. If you want to dig deep and go for something, make sure there is a payoff. 12" of snow after 3 years and 7k hours of staring at countless models is not a payoff. It's a punishment

Back in my drinking days I was a heavyweight. Not like a plastered fool or anything like that. I could just easily handle a lot more than most. So when I did rarely puke once in a blue, I knew I got it done right. Same with keyboard puke. If I look at a post and say "damn that is one LONG ASS PILE OF PUKE", I know it's done right too.

I just blabber a lot. Sometimes it's pretty damn good but more often than not it's just keyboard puke followed by submit button

I orignally put DIAF but it just didnt feel right