Bob Chill

I'm having a hard time remembering a similar setup. The 13-15 stretch had some mini versions but sw-ne trajectory and ripping flow. I can't remember any drawn out events with blocking, no sig slp, and mostly W-E trajectory at our latitude. This could be a flag honestly because it might be uncommon unless I'm just old and forgetful. That said, on paper it looks very ominous and it's square in the midrange rn. My guess is the euro prob just captured top end for snowfall and % of snowfall. It's hard not to think that this will be quite impactful overhead or nearby. All snow is pretty sketchy for my yard. My gut says 50% snow is ambitious. My weenie says look tf out, apocalyptic event inbound. My weenie is really dumb though. Kind of has a mind of its own but I hear that's normal.

Some will be worrying about suppression by tomorrow or even 0z tonight. That's a lock.

Busts? I've hit my guesses in my yard back to back. I wish I busted just like everybody wishes you would blue screen of death tf out of here. I think you should stay because it's fun watching you melt trying to pretend to be something nobody on earth or jupiter believes you are. The more you post the less you can subvert the truth. I'm enjoying it. Keep going. Please.

Gfs run was pretty encouraging with both the progression and surface winds/temps. We havent had the gfs on our side with tightrope setups in the midrange. Gfs is the warmest global as usual but it isnt really warm and the verbatim solution is still very wintry. Crap. I need to figure out how to avoid this place for at least Mon-Tues.... hmmm.... guess I'll strive for a temporary ban... just saw phin post in banter. Brb and see ya after the ban

Hot damn. We need the mid level wiggle room. Go europe!

Narrow minded offensive dirt bags (and this is an uber nice way to put it) don't get free passes anywhere I visit. Sorry for pouring fuel but I won't back down for 1 second here. Dude is trash. Heck, I just insulted a pile of trash with my last sentence,

Stop making a fool of yourself. You're damn good at it. Maybe one of the best. But those skills arent something I wouldnt show off in such grand fashion like you do

Sure thing boss. We all know how "progressive" you are. Go ahead and progress back to where people give af about your values. Might be hard now that parler is down tho.

The second I saw your pic, george thorogood started rockin' "I Drink Alone" in my head

Whatever dude. Enjoy the stone age. My last business has 30 remote female agents and I didnt even know what half of them looked like. But yea, all about grabbing the you know...

Lol. You nailed a wild pitch and made it look like a slow lob. The day you break character is the day I start worrying. I'm never going to worry am I?

I've literally hired, fired, and promoted well over 300 people in businesses that I've owned or managed the last 30 years. Just speaking from a lot of experience. You do you and I'll do me.

100% agree. This is also why the world is fast moving towards female politicians and CEOs. It shouldnt have taken this long but it is what it is.

It's def part of it. The deeper/bigger the cold dome the more lift isentropic upglide/lifting. In this case it's not a front line battle like it could be if the arctic boundary divded the warm/moist flow. That's way up north in NY this go around. Ingredients are still certainly there but mixy messy instead of deep deep winter.

We all suck when we get sucked in here. It's a rite of passage. I got railed solid in 05/06 and looking back at my posting style I should have gotten railed harder. Not everybody needs to dig deep into the science to be a consistent positive contributor. Don't short change yourself. Seriously. There are basicslly only 4 kinds of posters here imo. 1)Those that strive to learn, participate, and add value on a regular basis. 2)Those that are here for therapy at the expense of people's eyeballs on a regular basis. 3)Those that are here for fun/jokes/obs only and/or join in only when fun is happening (ie smart people). 4)And those that simply want to throw wet blankets, let air out of the room, and go out of their way to try and make others feel as miserable as themselves. That's really it. Of course there's straight up trolls but they exist everywhere. Nothing special there. Imo- you and cobalt are squarely #1s

[Mar 2018 enters the chatroom from my yard]

I've been meaning to say this since last year but my keyboard keeps puking other things. You and @Cobalt have become pretty fantastic and welcome young posters imho. You guys are the future of this forum as myself and other long timers trend towards forum history. Keep it up. It's refreshing and I personally really appreciate it.

Truth. Nailbiters and living on the edge is our predefined specialty in the mid range. The overrunning stripe is quite narrow in all guidance and it's a club sandwich of ptype south to north. Staying all snow requires someone to be on the tiny slice of the already narrow slice thru the duration. Tall order as the stripe will wobble up and down as slp influences flow. CMC is different but still shows the W-E aligned boundary like the other globals. That orientation is very encouraging. If it morphs to sw-ne it will quickly take the wind out of our sails and the ice out of our yards. Fun week on tap!

Lets not derail this thread but you cant help but to look at midrange guidance and think we may be in for one of the more impactful mixed events in years. Many years... Someone is getting it. Maybe it's us. I'm very interested

Considering the 0z euro solution and seeing the 12z gfs version... it does look pretty ominous for a significant event. Little ice storms are more boring than watching a cross country ski race. Potential crushing ice storms with a side order of glacier on the heels will suck me in every time

I should delete my post now lol. I'm 100% rooting for bands to park on you for hours. My brain has moved on to an amazing QB matchup tonight and a foot of ice later this week

That's surface. The 850 temp/wind animation on TT really shows what we're dealing with. There are 2 cold boundaries thru the period. Cold front south of us that pulls north as waa takes over and the arctic boundary up in NPA and SNY. We arent getting the artic boundary to help this time without sig changes. It's all about the the other boundary. We want as short of duration as possible with southerly midlevel winds. That's what's pushing the cold boundary north as precip moves thru. We also want the cold boundary to sink back south ASAP as slp moves east of us. It's a pretty classic messy setup for us. Seems like this stuff was more common years ago but memories are selective. Surface flow actually looks pretty good on the gfs. True CAD northerly flow even after precip starts. Relatively brief SE flow as slp is closing in to our west but right back to northerly. CAD wins in this scenario on the gfs and that's why ice is pretty stout. I personally dont see snow winning here for any of us really. Meaning close to or all snow. Unlikely without a further push of the cold boundary. Mid range seems to prefer to move north instead of south lately so I'm def leaning on a sig but messy event at best for now.

Not this time. I'm talking 4-5k' up overhead. Elevation areas are further north and better climo so it may correlate but it's more a factor of where the battleline is drawn. No way to know yet really. For you and me we want CAD with northerly surface flow no matter what. Insitu/eroding CAD even with the battlezone overhead could be problematic. Just spitballin'. No concrete thoughts. Just envisioning the mechanics thru different levels

I'm too lazy but WW (or anyone), post 850s temps + wind barb panels when it counts. Some runs have northerly flow in the mid levels fighting back the waa surge and others move that battlezone north of us. Precip trajectory is sweet if that look holds. If we want good snow we need to be on the winning side of the midlevel battle zone. It's a very touchy setup there. Low confidence until a particular solution becomes consensus and even then we're playing with fire here.

ALWAYS rootin for ya man. Sometimes I find myself willing to sacrifice my yard for yours but that's plain crazy talk so it ends just as quick as it starts. But the brief thought counts even as I sit here rooting for flaming meteors in your yard and white asteroids in mine.