Bob Chill

So far it looks like as long as some idiot doesnt put a piece of american cheese on a pastrami sandwhich, we eatin clubs mang

I worked it backwards mostly. I def had general background knowledge and understood a fair amount in general but not nearly as much as you might think just 15 years ago. I never even used or learned about 500mb ht and vort panels until eastern. I quickly learned far more about what they mean verbatim/reality than what they actually mean scientifically. Basically, I quickly memorized what to get excited about and what to get nervous about even before I knew how/why they existed in the first place. It was nothing more than thinking "oooh, that's what I'm looking for" or "ah crap, this is ugly". But it was mostly visual and nothing savvy. THEN I learned why they exist and did the same thing (slowly) with every other important level. That's straight up backwards really right? I knew panels were good or trending good or bad or whatever simply because I knew what to visually recognize. Absolutely nothing to do with in depth meteorology like physics/dynamics/laws and all the other stuff they teach mets at very expensive colleges for a career that is insulting in the paycheck dept (imo only. Seems unfair and wrong to me but that's another giant can of worms to debate). I did have a massive breakthrough 2011-12 when I started envisioning the atmosphere overhead like a sandwich. Each surface/mid/upper level panel is a piece of bread, cheese, tomato, meat, etc. There's a lot of important things overhead with each and every event but each event has it's own set of important things. That's complicated! Then I organized my thoughts based on complexity and started calling setups things like a grilled cheese (simple overrunning), or ham and cheese (single stream wave), or club (dual stream phase/transfer etc), or imported italian cold cut (complicated multi part phase/transfer etc). Havent had a triple phase 93 redux at close enough range to name a sandwhich after it. Hopefully before I'm dead. All this stuff probably sounds funny AF but dammit it was a breakthrough. So once I classified groups of events into different sandwiches I started honing in on the most important ingredients (levels) to events and that allowed me to systematically pull the proper ingredients based on the event's general characteristics. This made me really fast and efficient at looking at the proper important stuff and not wasting time (or confusing myself) looking at dumb stuff. Like using american cheeze on a pastrami sandwich. Who the hell does that sh!t anyways? Anyways, I think this should help someome somewhere understand it's only as complicated as you want to make it and anyone can learn if they really want to. If I post a 250mb jet panel then you already know I'm thinking club sandwich coastal or better and things like that. I never post a random level. I might be out to lunch with my analysis but there is a very specific reason I'm looking at it based on my filing system. I'm always improving to make it easier too. Damn, super long ass post but it gives some really good insight on one way to tackle this as an enthusiest. Knowledge of physics and calculus etc are absolutely not a barrier to entry for a weenie to take it to the next level. If someone want to climb the weenie ladder, get away from surface panels and start working on 500mb skills. Skilled weenieism begins at 500mbs. No shortcuts there. I really hope this helps someone because dayum I'm a typing fool.

It was earlier this week but imo how it's happening on the ground is an old rerun at this point. That's prob not a coincidence. Deep under the hood might be unusual. Ground truth is not. I think we can agree there. GFS is going to win this one for our yards. Every time I looked at it I envisioned this type of outcome (and it made a lot of sense even if I didnt like it) but I never compared any run over run changes in the upper levels or any fine detail at all really. I just broad brushed looked at runs in isolation when I had time click thru them. Primary is in OH now. That's def not suppressed. Euro had a horizontal brick wall just north of our region earlier this week when it was exciting. Now the firehose is rocking NYC/CNJ/CPA. That's not suppression either. Maybe technically in the fine details it still all is but it's really hard to defend suppression looking at everything in it's entirety as it's happening/going to happen.

Nah, you peeps def flatter me and I appreciate it but honestly, anyone can do what I do. I'm serious too. But I don't recommend it to anyone. The amount of time I've wasted learning fine details and feverishly tracking for minimal returns is REALLY f'n dumb and wasteful. I wouldnt recommend it to anyone. Even people I dont like

Nah, don't overthink it. We've been DM'ing deck pics to each other for years. That's all. Perfectly innocent and our wives dgaf.

I'm def busting your chops but only because it's going down the bad way. I read a fraction of the analysis posts last week but on Tues I was surprised how different you and I were thinkng when I tuned in to lurk. I kept looking at the setup and thinking congrats pa/nj/nyc and consoling my yard's feelings. I remember looking at a euro run (dont remember what day) and there was literally no snow in the areas I figured the jackpot was headed for. It intrigued me very much but at the same time I was still pretty sure that the crush zone would gravitate to where it always does. Your analysis is always sound and solid like 100% of the time. I just didnt believe for a second that NMD/PA/NJ were going to get fringed. Opposing forces always seem to let up in the short range. I was really hoping we'd get to the short range with CPA still north of the super heavies that pump eastward off the ocean NW of the low center. The second the drift towards that idea started I dropped the idea of 12+ for my yard and set the win bar at 6" (ignoring my mental hard drove of memories). 6" is a solid # for any nina hybrid in DC metro. Especially when the multi year struggle is real. It just another example of how climo is often more powerful than NWP supercomputers

Cloud seeding is a real thing. Post checks out

You havent lived until someone you dont like very much is attacked by blue sperm.

No worries g man. I'm outta here tonight when I fall asleep. It's a lock. If the hook gets set this week, my limited posting will be late at night or before 8am. I'll keep my current avatar because it looks to be appropriate for a while and easy to spot. Psu, cape, matt, and all the other longtimers can do the heavy lifting until then. Make sure they dont build a SER or -PNA while I'm gone tho

Oh boy, the upper level red and blue schlong sword fight pattern inbound. Hide yo kids and hide yo wifi. And make sure you protect your weenie.

I'm not trying to be condescending. I'm speaking for the group. I'm not jumping all over a single post. I'm trying to slow down a repetitive pattern that literally over 1k people read daily during events. I've only been legit active again here since Friday night and since then, you constantly ask for specifics and back yard comfirmation (directly and indirectly) for a good outcome. The uncertainty of it combined with hardwired deep rooted need for snow (we're all the same) is getting to you and it's obvious. Yes, it's frustrating. I have over 15 straight years on this board feeling that same exact frustration. Thing is, nobody here can accurately give you the confirmation you're looking for and neither can a weather model. You dont seem at ease with any answers given so you keep asking. Go back and read all your question posts after each model suite since Friday night and then consider my original post again. I'm not trying to be an ass. I'm trying to help you become a better and more enjoyable poster here. Back in 2006 I got my chops busted HARD on EasternWx from long timers for a lot of similar reasons. I didnt get mad or offended at all. Quite the opposite actually. I took the advice to heart and improved ever since. That's what this is about. Not me being a jerk trying to piss you off for sadistic pleasure. Your yard has a much better chance at good snow after today than mine and imo your yard doesnt have good odds either. But that doeant mean you 100% for sure wont get hit flush with pt 2. It's down to pulling off a smallish miracle (imo only).

Man, you run yourself ragged with specifics. Look at the time stamp on the delayed band and consider many model runs are still in front of you. That "band" will change locations and intensity every six hours. The only thing you should be worrying about is whether it stays within 50-75 miles of you or turtle heads back up to PA where the most probable climo location is. I understand your need for specifics. I really do. But we're like years away from NWP to be able to pinpoint this kind of stuff that far out in time. If it's still in existence with a reasonable proxity in 24-36 hours, then you can sweat all over the 30 pixels on the map that matter to you.

Had a mini version of that here. Flakes are taking their time falling I suppose. Best rates/flakes (not impressive but notably different) happened after the band on radar was moving out.

Seems counter intuitive but with an AO prog'd to go that negative, if the NAO keeps diving amwx will need a new weenie subforum for the FL panhandle. Blocking itself doesnt produce storms obviously but every nosedive and relaxation provides a window for a sig storm. Interesting to see just how cold guidance is hinting at now. TPV being very displaced in Feb is productive in our region. You dont have to go far back in history to confirm this idea. Just for giggles as I've literally have only briefly scanned lr guidance off and on all winter so far, and I'm not in tune like the heavy lifters... but... I do see potential for a general idea something like this: Not much of a chance for a big clean storm storm during the period leading into and shortly after the arctic front but some sort of west track cad, modest trailing wave/anafront, or clipper style event would be the most probable way to score something quickly. Unless it backs way off in depth, cold shots like this can really dry things out all over the eastern half of the conus so there could be boring period before the next big chance window opens. Snow could come easy regardless of track too. Need the NS to keep dropping shortwaves relatively close together to maximize the chances and avoid ZR to rain after an extended cold period. No idea whatsoever how active the NS will be but persistance argues against any extended lull in precip/storm chances. IMO- we're only getting started today. I'm expecting a compressed active winter period along the east coast in general thru the majority of Feb. Nothing specific on guidance telling me this. Just my personal experience. This doesnt translate into multiple stacked up events here. It could but not something worth discussing today. This is the first time I'm interested in the LR all season. But I'm busy AF so I'll let you guys sweat the details until something sets the hook in the mid/short range

Careful with this hobby around here. Instead of a happy retired MD you'll end up a deranged lunatic who needs an MD. I want double digits too but expecting it with a storm like this requires the storm to defy a lot of important opposing forces that rarely if ever release their grip. After last night's model runs I was nearly 100% sure double digits would be a freak show instead of possible or likely.

Heh, if that was true then my yard would get 60 feet and everybody else would get 60 flakes. Then I would spam the board with obs and pics like a bot on reddit.

Are you talking about me? Not sure if u are but if so, I don't mute anybody in our sub. Especially longtimers. You could insult my mom and it still wouldnt change that. I didnt get invested in this storm until late tues/early weds but I did see it showing up out in time. My very first thought was I'll only believe an unusual miller b hybrid during a nina smoking my yard when I see it. I'm optimistic always but I never take a suckers bet anymore. Miller bust PTSD is a real thing. I tried to get my doc to prescribe a pallet of valiums but it was a nogo for some dumb reason.

If things pick up like I expect here shortly will that make a difference or is this just how it is? I dont remember you from years past and this is my first time back so there may be some backstory I'm unaware of. Just noticing a pattern just like I do with wx. Not trying to be an ass (kinda sorta)

Is it a coincidence that your yard conditions closely match your default posting vibe?

I caught that yesterday and my initial fear was matt ending up too far west compared to DC. U guys are def in a good spot regardless of the deform snow tomorrow.

Just clicked aroud wx stations at and offshore of VA beach. Forecast was SE shifting to E late. Already due east. Is this significant? Dont know yet but it's certainly not a bad thing. What's going on down there has a bearing on what happens this afternoon with the waa snows. Won't be surprised if radar starts lighting up in these parts again shortly.

Now THAT is quality slant sticking my man!

It cant tell u enough how refreshing it is to see you post obs on the high end of the region. I'm slipping in my old age I guess but for some reason I dont understand yet, I genuinely want you to get more snow than me. ....wtf is that, right?

WOOF!

Cute girfriend dude!