Bob Chill

Does anybody really care about anyone's snow climo beyond their own yard? I sure don't. Never understood why people care when areas to our north or south get hit and we fail. It snows all over the globe 12 months a year non stop. Any place outside of my yard is all the same to me irt snow. Nonexistent. Areas of Japan get buried 5 stories deep. Places like that is where we should be envious. Certainly not Scranton. Lol

It looks like precip would start around 6-8am even on the euro right? It's a warm front/band of precip on the move and by 18z it's already east of 95. I havent looked all that close tho. Soundings look half decent at 12z monday. It would make sense this winter to get ok snow in an unconventional and convoluted way.

It can happen but we really need a heck of an antecedent airmass (and deep to our sw) and a fast moving storm. The leaf of precip on the south side is just a warm front. I'm not writing it off and it's def discussionable (new word!).

So I finally button up an intense week and did a quick scan of the board. Here's what I found 1) even though the horse has literally been beaten dead, resurrected, and beaten dead again, the same ridiculous and excessively stupid debate about MD/DE/NJ/PA snow climo finds its way back. Again. And it still makes my eyes bleed and makes we want to threaten innocent yard rodents' lives with my foot 2) Nothern stream lows that track north of us with avg at best temps have never once been a good snow setup here but somehow monday is different 3) The digital storm next friday is so locked and loaded that it's already time to parse details of every op run from over a week out. Which makes sense considering how amazingly predictable long and mid range has been this year. Short range has been an epic disaster though so nothing to worry about until the night before the storm. I'm in

This time of year it doesnt matter as much. Wavelengths shorten and upper level bowling balls start rolling down the lanes.

It was def cold in russia/asia but Canada can torch for days, weeks, or months and all it would take is an epo ridge and it would get very cold in no time. Like 5 days or less. Our temp problems are almost always 1 of 2 things. Southeast ridge or pac maritime air filling up canada or the conus. The pac jet has been persistently bad but nothing is permanent. There are cycles in cycles going on all around us with all kinds of things (pdo, amo, ao, nao, enso, etc). When they line up things are great and when they dont it sucks. I figured this year would stink since back in the fall. Blocking will always get my attention. So far it hasnt been enough. Boom or bust is just how we roll in these parts

In jan of 96 when i lived in CO a group of us road tripped to alta during a storm cycle. 40" in 48 hours when we got there. Snowed all day and we hung out in the parking lot until it got dark. Then they closed the canyon... accidental interlodge. Stayed right in the base lodge. Next day the canyon and mountain were closed so we were stuck doing nothing with another 30" of snow on the ground. Ski patrol said they are doing control work and will try and open some of the mountain. Lifts started running at 11am but the canyon stayed closed until much later. There were literally less than 300 people skiing alta with over 70" of snow in 72 hours... You needed a snorkle. Literally. Amazing. We dropped cliffs everywhere and even if you landed flat on your face you would barely feel it let alone hurt anything. Damn man... those were somes times. I wish I could turn back the clock. Especially after another disaster of a storm here. Lol

18z gfs agrees. But it also says there's an ice storm coming in 6 hours so prob best to never trust it again for any reason whatsoever.

I'm sure this was discussed but I just looked at the 18z gfs. Lol. Wtf. That's a bit absurd for a top 5 global wx model

I slantsticked my typing. Lol. 1.6" is the right amt. It's really unusual out there. My grass is almost covered in the back and it looks like snow. But you can walk of top of it and not leave footprints at all. I suppose feb 07 was just like that at some point. Legit concrete glacier.

One of the biggest sources of legit stress and anxiety for many people is fretting things you have zero control over. To me it makes no sense to waste time/energy/emotions because weather didnt weather right. Or anything I have no control over. I just make the best of it and move on. Life is complicated enough without adding bad days because my digital snow got stolen. Lol I didnt want to rock the boat last night but when MN posted the IAD sounding I quickly accepted all sleet is much more likely than good snow. Def wont be the first or last. Thing is, the exact same setup could hit next week and it would be all snow. Then again a week later and be all rain.

Sounds ridiculous typing this but I'm actually glad (in some ways) that the snow didnt work out. Snow is very distracting and was busy af until just now. Barely looked out the window after 10am. I did measure 1.8 of whatever it was. What a dud of a winter in the close burbs. We'd have been better off with a nina SER door to door

2013-15 borrowed a lot of our future luck and here we are.

Razor edge storms break sleetier in my yard far more often than the other way around. I was hopeful to get 2-4 before the flip but ground truth did what it usually does

Some of the lowest viz sleet in years. At least we got that

Simple really. Sleet covers everything white, has legit staying power if it stays cold, and I sill get to watch tv at night and not freeze

Do or die for our yards from 9 to noon. Warm layer is still thin/weak. Unsure if rates will overcome but seeing some clumps of snow fall under the little yellow dot 15 mins ago says we have a chance.

White asteroids starting to not leave contrails in their supersonic descent. Warm layer isnt stout. For now at least Eta: added "not" so post makes sense

White asteroids mixing in. Wasnt surprised to start as sleet in my yard. Unfortunate but no surprise. Lets see if the warm nose can mix out as the juicies come in.

Tracker still hasnt turned on the half mile long post limit. The one above covers 2 time zones

Plenty of time for it to juice up and drop 6-10.

Nothing brings out the nuts like a big heaping pile of sleet. Banter needs a moderator or something. Always remember this though. Today is the tomorrow that you worried about yesterday

Since we're in the really short range so the hrrr should get the majority if not all the weight from here in. Unless it gets worse at 4z.

Imo- models have already set the boundaries and they cant replicate exact weather. Especially with riding such a tightrope with ptypes. Models arent all over the place either. There is a common theme through all guidance with the only big question being a razor thin ptype situation for most. Real time will tell the story there. Qpf amounts are close enough across all the models. Instead of hanging on model runs that wiggle back and forth, just imagine how your yard does with these events and be honest lol. You're probably right. The warm nose/layer before noon is pretty thin. It's also barely above freezing. 1 degree one way or the other is make or break snow/sleet. I'm in chips fall mode. A case can be made for more snow/less sleet and vice versa. We'll see soon enough

Well, then make it not sleet then.