Bob Chill

That's surface. The 850 temp/wind animation on TT really shows what we're dealing with. There are 2 cold boundaries thru the period. Cold front south of us that pulls north as waa takes over and the arctic boundary up in NPA and SNY. We arent getting the artic boundary to help this time without sig changes. It's all about the the other boundary. We want as short of duration as possible with southerly midlevel winds. That's what's pushing the cold boundary north as precip moves thru. We also want the cold boundary to sink back south ASAP as slp moves east of us. It's a pretty classic messy setup for us. Seems like this stuff was more common years ago but memories are selective. Surface flow actually looks pretty good on the gfs. True CAD northerly flow even after precip starts. Relatively brief SE flow as slp is closing in to our west but right back to northerly. CAD wins in this scenario on the gfs and that's why ice is pretty stout. I personally dont see snow winning here for any of us really. Meaning close to or all snow. Unlikely without a further push of the cold boundary. Mid range seems to prefer to move north instead of south lately so I'm def leaning on a sig but messy event at best for now.

Not this time. I'm talking 4-5k' up overhead. Elevation areas are further north and better climo so it may correlate but it's more a factor of where the battleline is drawn. No way to know yet really. For you and me we want CAD with northerly surface flow no matter what. Insitu/eroding CAD even with the battlezone overhead could be problematic. Just spitballin'. No concrete thoughts. Just envisioning the mechanics thru different levels

I'm too lazy but WW (or anyone), post 850s temps + wind barb panels when it counts. Some runs have northerly flow in the mid levels fighting back the waa surge and others move that battlezone north of us. Precip trajectory is sweet if that look holds. If we want good snow we need to be on the winning side of the midlevel battle zone. It's a very touchy setup there. Low confidence until a particular solution becomes consensus and even then we're playing with fire here.

ALWAYS rootin for ya man. Sometimes I find myself willing to sacrifice my yard for yours but that's plain crazy talk so it ends just as quick as it starts. But the brief thought counts even as I sit here rooting for flaming meteors in your yard and white asteroids in mine.

They're in a heavy debate whether to call it a T of rain or snow. Stay tuned.

Look at the 10&14 day verification graphs. Long range has been busting too high since mid jan. Good clue to hedge thoughts against a sudden reversal or flip positive. It certainly could happen but wont consider it until it's happening d7 or less. D7 verification has been pretty strong.

I couldn't get past the speed part. I saw the mega frontogen posts earlier this week and was hesitant to jump in due to speed. 2"hr for 2 straight hours without a lull is hard with a storm on the move like this. I didnt discount the chance though. Absolutely considered the possibility of a heavy raking. And it sure could have happened but I couldnt shake the natural pessimism for a huge outcome given no closed or neg tilt shortwave and no confluence. The really (good) nasty bands generally dont park without some sort of impediment to forward speed. Kinda need an upper level wall (even if tiny) to really wring things out more often than not

Whatever you do, dont take that bet no matter how insane the odds are in your favor

Seems to be verifying as the most likely outcome for the setup leading in. Inline with my thoughts. A sprinting storm with much of the area at or above freezing rarely if ever produces anything "big" in these parts. I think I've joined @Ian with putting climo in front of models with all events and adjusting accordingly. Makes me feel smart but climo has been around many thousands of years longer than me. I aint that smart. My memory is good enough tho

Kinda rare for us not to get band'd at the same time. Not piling up hot and heavy but def approaching 2" here. Might be more. Still slackin and chillin in bed. Might all melt before I decide to take on the day and start moving

I think psu might be forced to actually like this event. The struggle is real

Go with the middle. Been working well this year. Super deep cold and relatively fat se ridges have yet to verify from mid/lr. Personally, the setup over the next 7 days looks productive and messy. I expect a fair amount of 4 different ptypes this week. That's all I can say without claiming to know things I really dont know

If that's what it takes to get you to stop prolifically posting about and vehemently defending poor analysis and wrong ideas, yes. Being subtle and respectfully correcting doesnt work. What do you suggest I do?

Hey man, you decided to grab a hammer and drive a bent nail into the board with rain talk. Cherry picking panels and telling others they were going to fail hard. I pointed out why your point didnt make any sense with real analysis but you kept going and so did I and here we are

Dont feel like scrolling back. How much rain is BTR reporting?

Is everyone except people in baltimore having fun yet?

Are we having fun yet?

One thing that can step in and save our area with southern stream shortwaves at really short leads is development down south. At short leads, northern stream are often some level of dry or inhibited in these parts in reality compared to guidance. Southern stream are often some level of juicier and stormier in these parts in comparison.

In this case tho, the storm didnt even really exist in anyone's mind until just what, 2 days before the big hit runs? Went from zero to 100 now pulling back to 60. I understand bumming out its not a max potential outcome because potential was there. But potential for no storm or something in between is sandwiched on both sides of the big runs. The largest solution always becomes the benchmark for success with every storm here. And because the largest rarely pan out in reality, every single event becomes very "unfun" no matter what happens

I'm still recovering from the shock of a last minute bump northwest on guidance. That ish never happens here.

I'm prob one of the few here who was never really worried about 18z guidance. The mood swings in here are pretty fun to watch tho. 0z is going to be kind it seems. If the gfs and cmc are good, I strongly suggest avoiding the 0z euro.

0z runs are pretty important for the nw side expansion if it's going to happen. Enough data from the storm in progress will be ingested and any shift in any direction will be a strong clue if this end up like similar events or truly be a rare jack near I95 and sharp cutoff. I def dont claim to know how its going to break. History says nw bump. Model consistency today says not so fast...

It depends on a lot of things. General speaking, if boundary and 925s are above freezing, if it's not straight ripping it's raining. Surface at 40 is generally rain even if the rest is good. Doesnt take much time to melt a falling snowflake. It gets tricky higher up like 800mbs on up. Sneaky warm layers in the mid levels wreak havoc even if everything else is sub. Freezing. Very generally speaking, you don't want above freezing temps higher than say 4-500' off the ground when surface is also above freezing. How much above freezing matters too. Snow can survive 33-35 degree air on the way down from 925mb level. Since our areas are marginal more often than not, you have to consider each marginal storm in its entirety. Nobody is getting 6"+ without meso banding. Even if .6 qpf falls as snow.

Exactly. And it starts right off the deck. Even 925s are fine. The warm air is literally a tiny slice of an otheriwse a good column. Soundings matter. Not all "warmish" events are the same. If the warmth was thick I would have quite different thoughts right now. I've experienced enough marginal storms where the entire first half of precip is rain even with good 850s. Those ingredients arent present with this one

If you lived in my neighborhood the last 20 years you would say it's true to the fullest extent allowable by law