Bob Chill

I extrapolated radar out just a little to the 27th and we good. It aint over dudes. This one is ours

That's why im sad about the disaster on Tuesday. How did we lose our 13 degree cushion Digital cushions are weak AF. One accidental ctrl+alt+delete and it's over

Those pixie flakes have to be the drizzle version of sleet. No way a pixie flake is surviving the descent alongside raindrops and pellets. It's backwards logic

Starting to get impressive out there. Icicles have connected with the ground under my wifes car. My truck sits much higher but even those icicles are trying to connect. Street is crust covered. Not bad for daytime zr/sleet in mid Feb

After everything I've witnessed since making an arguably poor decision in returning, I have a hard time caring what anything says beyond 48 hours anymore other than noting that precipitation is still in the forecast. This is def not a year for long track or even medium track anything. Too much mental effort that loses 90% of its value just 6-12 hours after the exercise. I'm here for just the lolz again

Think of it like this. Enso is macro. It can have a pronounced effect on the winter period as a whole. Snow is micro. We get hit sometimes in the dumbest setups and epically fail with great ones no matter what enso is doing. I look at enso as an opportunity multiplier (or subtractor) in a general sense but wx is waaaaay too complicated to make broad lump statements. On paper, 2013-15 is a disaster from a macro setup. But it snowed its eyeballs out anyway. It would be dumb to root for that persistent upper level pattern if you like snow. But it ended up one of the most active back to back winters in decades for snow. AO is macro too. We always want a neg AO but we've had plenty of acceptable storms with a neutral or + AO and wasted more than a few long duration -AO periods because other things got in the way. Things that nobody can possibly predict until it's really close in time. Just watch the cruel irony of wx as we waste what appeared to be beautiful pattern at first and then when the pattern breaks apart into hippo diarrhea and a coastal hits us anyway. Long range is nothing more than an educated guess at the opportunity multiplier or subtractor. Ground truth of snowfall is nearly a real time sport. They can't be combined because it's impossible on nearly every level. The randomness of how we snow will always contain a large % of unpredictable randomness. For these reasons, long range to me is nothing more than an exercise in understanding how much is and isnt working in our favor. Ground truth cares little about either

Psu just said it's ovah. See ya next year or the one after that or the...

Sleet and grains have done some work in the hood. Road is now covered. Looking more wintry every hour out there. No complaints

Thursday was never shown as a pure snowstorm and you know that. Euro shows snow to wintry mix to rain This would be a win for us imo Ji. It's a long ways away and future changes will keep coming. Any run that shows the knife edge within a reasonable distance is a net positive. Who knows what we'll be looking at in a few short days. Real cold is nearby. Lots of precip is overhead. I'm not jumping to any conclusions yet. We've trended the wrong way a lot last few weeks. Now that it's ugly instead in the mid range, maybe... just maybe the trend works the other way. After what we've all experienced since mid/late Jan, I'm def not spiking any footballs before the short range starts agreeing... and even then....

Love this post matt. We only briefly met in rockville a few years back but I always appreciate your thoughts/posts and really like the way you think. I feel like I know you better than some of my real life friends. I'll eternally root for your yard to get destroyed no matter where you move around to.

@BristowWx that looks pretty legit dude. A little jealous. I got some money mud accumulating. I'll wait until it gets really muddy before posting a pic for the "wow effect"

After way too many years playing this game, one thing I've learned to do is not ask why it went wrong. The possibilities are endless and it doesnt change my muddy wet yard from being muddy and wet. My post mortem usually goes like this "well, that sure sucked a steaming pile of hippo diarrhea. Maybe next time it will be a pretty white fozen pile of hippo diarrhea". And then I crack jokes and do drugs until the next chance. Much more fun that way

Yea, we need wx53's super secret analog system to step in and show NWP and the rest of us who's boss.

Apparently the warm layer is only 27" and not 2700' off the ground. Just another way showing ninas and winter wx hate us

You dont need to ask. Continuous loop started in Feb 2016 and hasnt let up since.

Tuesday isnt rainy enough yet. Give it some time. Once FFWs go up tuesday, incoming thursday.

Sleet rattling the windows now. Yay?!?

When this winter was approaching I literally had zero interest. Ninas dont work well. Its how it is and its fine. Then blocking got going and wouldnt let go so I got sucked in. Which is fine as there is some good history with blocked ninas. Seems to be doing what ninas do best... find ways to nutpunch our area. A fine job I may add. I'm much less interested in wx now so time to crack jokes or go silent. One or the other

A 3"+ sleet storm is pretty kick ass imo. Today is a steaming turd pile version tho

Models nailed it actually but they forgot it was celsius and not fahrenheit.

With everything that's shifted around on guidance the last few days, these solutions are the only ones that surprise me honestly. Mixy messy was totally where my head was at. Straight rain? Didnt really see that coming

Icon shifted in the right direction with a hint of confluence. A few more ticks with lower heights north of us and it would prob snow. I dont buy the drawn out multiple precip waves. More likely to be consolidated imo

Cold air sure isnt far away. Certainly reasonable to believe things can easily shift enough for better outcomes. Hit and run confluence or sneaky high at the right time could make a huge difference. I mean its not like we've seen sig shifts in 24 hours recently... just the wrong direction. Maybe since models are showing crap and doo doo right now things can break the opposite direction and be good..... nah. That's crazy talk

Tracker needs to put a half mile limit on quoted posts. My scrolling finger is broke now. Go nam! Would be relaxing having things breaking and falling

Finally took a look at 12z runs. Lol. Busy af. So glad it's a 3 day weekend. I havent changed my mind from what I was thinking yesterday. Mixy messy for sure. Definitely surprised that tues could be straight rain. Didnt think we'd be that warm... Nothing available to push the boundary eastward. Bummer. Not sold on straight rain. Wouldnt take much to flip to some sort of frozen. No thoughts on the thurs potential. A lot of stuff has to happen first. Hopefully the general idea doesnt fizzle before we get there.