Bob Chill

HRDPS looks very similar to the euro with qpf distribution. Like really close

Euro striping the northern tier with best qpf/column. I mean this kind of stuff is really hard to predict.... like a year or 2 in advance

I'm pretty interested in your obs coming up. It's a thin strip but there is some heavy precip inbound and it looks like you're in the bullseye

Sure thing boss Ob: 86/70 with moderate mosquitos

I'm still trying to figure out why LWX didn't change the forecast to heat advisory and drought conditions yet. Maybe at the 930 update

Didnt you hear? It over. All of it

Well, rates lightened up and still 34 degrees. It's over guys. Maybe next year. Prob not though. It will never snow again. I thought it would but after reading here today I guess I was wrong.

Nice rates/big flakes in rockville. Unfortunately I just saw the euro drive up my street and start stealing it all

Lunch break. Loving the long range look. IDGAF about ptype problems. The "gauntlet" is very narrow between all ptypes. That will work itself out in due time. Just keep running stuff at us from the southwest with the arctic eyeball wobbling all over the upper midwest. Can't ask for much more really. Well, I mean you can if you want to. I'll wait until something sets the hooks but for now winter wx is upon us for several weeks off and on. That is never bad. Never ever ever bad.

while this is 100% true, wx is subject choas and complicated forces. While there is some truth to seasonal trends, it's always best to drop all bias and look at each event in a vacuum before pulling on old memories. Bias is the deathknell for forecasters, stock traders, and any other field that cannot be pinned down basically ever until it's happening.

It's not really. It's basically a crawling warm front with opposing forces. The breadth if very well defined now but what happens inside of that is impossible to nail within a tight 50 mile spread. I'm not surprised at the mid level warmth on the nams. Every time we have deep southerly midlevel flow, warmth will typically punch further north than first thought.

Ready to flip to rooting for a south trend again?

Trust me when I say that if those overdone monster mid range runs didnt happen, people would be thrilled to still be in the game right now. 100% positive. I've been here a long time man. There's not a single weenie posting in the storm thread not hiding behind their desk chair clicking thru model runs willing to sacrifice their wife and kids for purples and pinks to come back. My initial thoughts here was max potential of 6-10". And that's still very possible but high end for sure. 12"+ is an historic snowfall around here. A draped front setup without any real low pressure is not a 1' snowstorm setup like 99% of the time

I know. I'm a minority type of thinker here. I really shouldnt complain or expect things to fit "my mold". The only downside is I often cant participate in disussion because it becomes very unfun. I dont waste free time doing unfun things

Me neither. I even try real life analogies with setups to add reason. If this were say April, and we had a stalled front draped the same way dividing warm/cold air with ripples running along it for 2-3 days, what would it be like? NWS would call for mostly cloudy and cool with occasional rain. Some areas will celebrate how the rain missed them and they still had their bbq "cuz they got lucky!". Other areas will be complaining about the swamp in their backyard and why it has a rain bullseye on it. The next 3 days are identical but with opposite reactions.

I'll drop this here. Hopefully people read it. Neary EVERY single event here that produces will have a suite or several suites of models early in the short range that are overdone. Often waaaaay overdone. Expect it. Understand it. Respect it. But whatever you do dont hug it. EVER. Anyone? Hello? [Crickets]

We having fun yet? It's comical man. First slug didnt get consenus until 7 hours ago and it broke mostly the right way. Instead of celebrating that, seems the focus is on the second piece that is still 36-48 hours away. I can't participate in a mental health clinic. I try to present very sound reasons why strapping into the emotional roller coaster too early is dumb but not one person who actually needs the advice listens. There is a lot of irony on this forum. It becomes 5x more apparent after an extended break.

Stayed up and took care of my early morning work so I can sleep in a little. Balancing time is tuff for me. Lol

Considering the first piece finally has consensus with just 24 hour leads, it would be best for the entire forum's health to ignore round 2 for 24 hours

I'm shocked by these euro revelations. I mean who can imagine this kind of craziness. Wow.

That's not what he's saying at all. The entire forecasting field would be lost beyond a few days without them. It's hobbiests that expect waaaay too much out of them. They are tools. And damn good ones.

You have to think about what kind of event this is. Think about a stalled front in spring with gulf moisture getting drawn in and bumping up against it. It's very hard for models to get all the little nuances right. This applies to any season as these types of precipitation events are common. Mostly in the spring. Location, timing, and amounts are always uncertain. That's why I keep saying to just worry about your yard staying in the general idea. Which all of ours are. It's a chips fall kind of deal.

Very cold at the surface too. Unusual. A glacier on top of whatever fall thurs/fri would be pretty awesome. I love that stuff

It's for the same reason. This isnt really a synoptic event and very hard to get qpf right. If this was a warm spring boundary event the qpf spread would be even bigger but nobody would care. It's basically a slow moving/stalled front that wobbles around with a moisture feed

Are the models really all over the place though? 75 miles is huge only in comparison to back yards. The stripe has always been narrow and it's a boundary and not a "storm". Model spread like this is completely normal.