Bob Chill

Only once the most important model caves... aka nam

6-8 is my goalpost There is no way you get that much rain and sleet.

Nam wins again lol Hmmm... euro looks like nam? You need to post an explantion why on your wx page so I can make the connection. No matter how hard I squint and go cross eyed, it still looks like the gfs and para

Euro looks great to me. Mids are still trending the right way. Perfect. As heights press, slower onset often comes with the territory. That's 2 steps in front of what I'm watching. Heights are prob going to start sliding the other way sometime between now and wed night. I like where this is a lot more than I did 48 hours ago

Be careful dude. You might get Short Pump'd tonight. Shelter in place. Hopefully with a perfectly cured nug of Gelato Cake

That's most likely a factor of the colder/more confluent flow run over run change. That acts as a better defense against the bull rush with precip/warm air so it shouldnt be a surprise. Models are prob too juicy as they have been at this range quite often. However, at 72hr leads, having things shunt souther/colder could not be more welcome for our area. At least to me anyways. Warm fail crew shift will prob get replaced by suppression fail crew shift here shortly if this continues. I'm an entrepreneur and my own boss so my crew likes where my yard is.

Para should be interesting given that its dad upped the cold game

Gfs looks better across the board with heights/temps etc leading into onset. Still got that trend going in our favor.

Here's where I think the disconnect between you and leesburg today is rooted. A few short days ago this was an abject failure and barely discussion worthy. Globals quickly and unexpectedly set the hook with arguably too bullish of snow solutions with front end. It's fun to consider but I think everyone knows high end results are full of peril. Plenty of people have said as much. But when the nam did what it did at 12z, you drilled down to the subatomic level of why it might be right and why we should seriously worry. Well, we're all appropriately worried already imo and just having some fun. But man PSU, you really sunk the nail this AM with nam analysis. And now with my quoted post it's either high end results or bust. And that's totally fine and you have every damn right on earth and venus to feel such a way. Just don't expect us all to feel the same away about it. It does have the feel that your goal may be that. Maybe I'm out to lunch and I probably am but my read of the room comes to that conclusion.

Icon actually tic'd colder at onset. Screw the NAM

This is just my rule of thumb and anecdotal. When meso's have 2 events in their range to deal with, it's always best to wait until the first one is out of the picture before fretting solutions that are vastly different than the globals beyond that. The whole time/compounding error thing can often go haywire with mesos. Also, meso's biggest value is short range and not mid. Still a day or more away from being in the short range. Not saying the NAM wont nail it. Just that if you're trying to actually forcast and not weenie out, a blend of guidance and much less weight on outliers helps keep your job

100 miles? Pffft. That's less than 1 NAM run away to correct. 1000 miles is a red flag tho

Which in itself is fine and why Ji is Ji and also why I like the guy. The problem here is he's very contagious and the only vaccine is snow. Basically I'm saying there is no cure

Typical dead guy response

Thru 48, it was much better in the mids. That's where I stop believing the nam. Especially in the face of overwhelming guidance to the contrary with the storm itself. There are times to freak out on the NAM. For me, this isnt even close to one of them. Now if all of 18z goes that way, I'll see ya next winter

All u can eat buffet of snow nothingburgers down this way. Come down and load your plate

My guess is the 12z globals are prob too snowy and the NAM is prob too nammy so middle of the road is where my head is at. Seems very unlikely all globals + ens are very wrong with the front side and also seems unlikely the NAM is very right with the NW push. Anything is possible but the difference isnt small and it's still the NAM beyond 48. We'll see how the rest of 18z looks.

NAM'ped effect. I like everything I see today. It's fair to be skeptical of the juiced up solutions. Still in the range where models have consistently overdone QPF. In the grand scheme we only care how juicy the front side is tho. 2 tenths per hour QPF may not verify but it should come in like a wall this time around.

700mb temps are much colder wed AM on the nam. For just 40 hours out, it was a big jump.

Whether it gets all the way there or not, psu's most important model (NAM) is trying to join the party now. Weak shortwave over ne/sne carves a little better as it departs setting the stage for at least slighty colder outcome.

Jma loves us so much it's sending us a heart shaped front end dump. Looks good honestly. Like the other globals except the heavies during the good column are NW of the euro/para/ukie. Not that it matters yet. It's a good run that looks right in the pocket of the other good runs at 12z http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_06/GZ_D5_PN_084_0000.gif

We're backing into something decent this time as the short range takes over where the starting point was an epic disaster. All the other ones worked the exact opposite. I mean sure, who doesnt think it can easily epically fail but even if it does it was very different than our other fails

If you brazenly ignore how every single event has trended from D3 to game time, it sure looks pretty good today for thurs. Other than every single one of us, who isn't ignoring the seasonal trend?

I posted the wrong euro h5 panel in my OP (0z instead of 12z) but it doesnt change the point I was trying to make. Compare today's 12z @ hr60 to a string of previous runs. It's pretty sweet to look at and literally a small miracle we're possibly backing into an ok event here.

Here's the 0z euro from the 13th. Just a few days ago. Not a damn thing in the way to hold the cold from hightailing it to the arctic circle. That "sneaky" little closed ULL to our north is practically 100% responsible for the shift towards good fortunes. We often get fooked by sneaky features. This time we needed one desperately and we got tossed a bone.