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Bob Chill

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  1. Bob Chill
    Other than strong ninas, I don't mind cold enso. Not my fave but most weak/mods pull off at least one compressed stretch of cold with chances. Some can be busy. I like having a cold Canada. Seems to be becoming more important as the years go by. 09-10 killed off part of this hobby unfortunately. Recency + the absurd nature of the storms makes everyone want a repeat. Big storm or bust attitude ever since. Nobody seems to really like our typical/avg events anymore. It gets treated like a consolation prize or criticized to death. I enjoy small events. We used to have fun with, take pics of, and celebrate car toppers here. Those days seem like another lifetime ago now.
  2. Bob Chill
    What's the deal with the genie in a bottle? Or did you guys take someone hostage and jam them in there? Is that the owner or the cabin keeping an eye on you? Chit is freaking me out man....
  3. Bob Chill
    Seems like every time the tpv or arctic front is prog'd in the mid/long range to push ESE, the actual progression is due south then slow crawl east. Always steepens the hill too much to get a good vector for snowfall. Cold angle is no doubt a real thing
  4. Bob Chill
    4 events over an inch in January is nothing to scoff at. I mean sure, all but one didn't have the oomph to push warning snowfall most places but still, 4 productive events with little blocking and fast flow? Make no mistake, that is a gift of overpefromance. You have to be able to recognize that for what it really is. Treat them all in isolation too. Every setup so far has been quirky and not repetitive other than smallish northern stream personality. That looks to continue. Keep 'em coming. Rain, whiff, mix, or shellack... doesn't matter. Fast northern stream flow is always a numbers game. ALWAYS. Until there is an actual reason other than dumb luck, it's best to stay away from big storm thoughts. In this case, big would be over 6"
  5. Bob Chill
    In my head I use angle degrees but good lord that's a tough way to describe a visual. The clock way of looking at it just popped into my head. I like it too!! Except nobody owns analog clocks anymore
  6. Bob Chill
    We don't have a handle on anything behind the front because the front itself has plenty of divergence. We'll get an 8 month break pretty quick here too.. This is winters 7th inning stretch with active shortwaves and cold Canada. Taking a break now goes against weenie dna
  7. Bob Chill
    Alignment of the entire frontal progression doesn't work here basically ever as the gfs shows. Any front aligned steeper than 8am - 2pm on a clock is cold chasing precip. Our window starts at 8am - 2pm angle without a kink in the flow. 8:30am to 2:30pm angle is where warning events start. It's a simple way to look at it but you won't find too many odds beaters inside of that rule of thumb Eta: developing your own rules of thumb goes a long ways towards developing your own thoughts different than what mid range models show. I mean sure, there could be vigorous wave run a steep boundary and snow. But if the models showed that 5 days out with a steep frontal boundary, it's time to strongly doubt model output. Just one tiny example of unlimited ways to develop your own skills beyond model TV
  8. Bob Chill
    We do but typically not on the front side of the boundary cross. Usually happens after it pushes south to NC (or wherever) and puts it in reverse. To get the front side, you can't have a steep SW-NE angle to the front. There almost always has to be some sort of "drape" so the cold air can push down vertically instead of diagonally. The more the boundary is aligned diagonally and steep, the higher the probability if cold getting in too late no matter what the mid range shows.
  9. Bob Chill
    Thing is, its only there because the arctic mass lost its legs and decided Canada is more fun. I can promise you, if -20 850e ran wall to wall above us from the GLs to Maine, there would be no shortwave drawing flow from the SW because it couldn't exist in that environment. Would be nice to get a real intrusion and let it settle instead of glancing quick movers.
  10. Bob Chill
    If the upcoming week continues the streak to morph cold domes into jagged hilly pockets of cold on the move, my interest is going to drop pretty quick. No sense analyzing the inner edge of the long range if it's just going to keep turning into the same ole same ole. Still not a shutout pattern so that's solid. But a very touchy and complicated one anyways... and that's as solid as Avanti's intelligence.
  11. Bob Chill
    At the point in time it does but that is a huge swath of SW flow in the mids and its moving east. Insitu cad at best. Need a cad setup with a feed. The only thing standing in the way is depth of cold. If northern or even arctic stream shortwaves run horizontally above us, we've got an extra layer of difficulty to overcome. We do complicated so well we shouldn't worry tho
  12. Bob Chill
    So much hinges on how the upper and mids set up after the boundary that until that is locked down, boy it gets hard to trust a single thing beyond (on any piece of guidance). I'm getting tired of the cold ROAR turning into a little meow
  13. Bob Chill
    Here's a good visual. When I started seeing the big bowl showing up and temp gradients looking like this on multiple models, I got excited. This is how we win without a block. Lots of iterations but here's how mid level temps NEED to look for a good overrunner. We had this across most guidance at the same general time. And here's the kick in the nuts 0z version of the same period.... Obvious right? Now ens are hinting ar the same bowl carve just further out in time. Might be a mirage. Seems elusive. Time will tell
  14. Bob Chill
    I don't dig back thru tons of recent runs to find trends as I'm mostly forward looking but I did spend a few minutes this AM. I won't go into detail but remember when the oranges were freezing in Jacksonville in early Feb on the models early last week? People talked suppression(briefly) and I distinctly remember @WxUSAFsaying he'd take the under. I quietly but violently agreed. Not only has the depth of cold backed waaaaay off (I know... shocking). Now the boundary is back to struggling to press and looking hilly instead of a broad carves. 0z gfs op is pointing towards a NS wave north of us after the boundary finally pushes south. Well, that f'n sux. Return flow will rot any cold air below it. That's why the 0z run had a perfect track rainer. If we can't get a big cold dome to carve and settle, we got problems because without deep cold air to fight against, our odds get really touchy.
  15. Bob Chill
    Gfs lost me after the d6-7 chance looked steamy and stinky. The swarm of shortwaves after in the west made my head hurt and the end result made it hurt worse. I'm out on anything the gfs showed thru d10
  16. Bob Chill
    The progression on the d9 deal is so convoluted I don't think it's actually possible.
  17. Bob Chill
    This run sucks. No signs of a broad cold trough. Just more quick hitting "V"s. Those won't get the job done.
  18. Bob Chill
    There's a big/deep arctic air intrusion coming into the conus. That's pretty much a lock. It will modify as it heads here but it's still a pretty big dense/cold airmass. The battleground between that and warm moist air in the deep south is kinda slow moving and just sagging down pushing on everything. Models are speeding it up. Especially the euro. Until that's resolved, no way to know how many (if any) shortwaves will run the gauntlet. Waiting game there. However, we've gotten plenty of ok events like this. The key is the orientation of the boundary. The more W-E it is, the higher the probability of multiple shortwaves running along it. The first chance starts with getting that boundary south of your house.
  19. Bob Chill
    Considering this entire evolution was an amped warm sector with little chance at the cold beating precip, recent developments are attention grabbing. I haven't seen a set of runs in the last 6 that didnt lower heights in the east leading in.
  20. Bob Chill
    It's the type of event that I like. Mostly an overunnner and not developing synoptics that gets us. Models can hone in on these further out than anything like this weekend. The more a front aligns W-E, the better our chances. We have some good history here with this type of event. My main concern is It's pretty abrupt after the warmup and it's the first cold air to hit. No models showed this 3 days ago. It was universally amplified and warm for this event. Not anymore and it's not far away. Interesting.
  21. Bob Chill
    This is a pretty good setup for a "lower stress" event. Seems a bit quick but the trend to press down heights in the east started 2 days ago. Getting interesting now and it seemed like a big longshot just a day or 2 ago
  22. Bob Chill
    I'm a really good room reader. I can literally feel your anguish as you prod thru iterations of the same general question in hopes of someone saying it's definitely going to dump in a week and not to worry We discuss generalities here really well. Complete piece by piece longwave analysis any time something looks like more than a shutout. You constantly try to drill one level deeper into specifics at times when generalities are still pretty muddy. Real frustration and unhappiness comes thru strong on your posts. Can be hard to read sometimes honestly. I'm saying this because I feel bad for you at times. Not because I'm a big meanie who wants to call everyone out
  23. Bob Chill
    We've wasted a few great ones since but that was the last classic hit. Last year had some great blocking. Upper air looked great plenty but when you opened up the 850 temp panels... ooof.... what a disaster. Lol
  24. Bob Chill
    Ninos often feature the pineapple connection or a stream of moisture and/or shortwaves from HI to Socal. When storms enter the country in socal it's WAAAAY different than when they enter in Seattle. That's the primary reason we like ninos. The further south a storm enters the conus, the better chance of it staying south of us. Plenty of ninos never get that though and it can happen in any enso state. When i read your posts and questions it always looks like a constant search for 1+2=3 in weather. You gotta move past that quick here. It has never and will never work that way. We've wasted ungodly good setups and gotten hit flush in some of the dumbest. Never ever expect anything to do anything in particular no matter what Eta: when I see a nice blocked pattern with a 50/50 or whatever, all it tells me that there is a real CHANCE at a big storm. Not that there will be a storm. And even if there is, a lot still has to break right to take advantage of the longwave setup. When models spit out a big blocked storm a week out, it makes sense to me. That's it. When models spit out an unblocked coastal ripper big hit a week out, it will never make enough sense to me to expect anything.
  25. Bob Chill
    Blocking changes the flow. Especially where it counts. When something is blocking the flow, we get confluence overhead or height lines running W-E. We live for that. Unblocked flow is just a steep hill most times. Nothing in the way so you better be in ground zero or you get zero. Make sense?
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