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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    Yea, I know. I'm just forecasting his snow for him because he'll be busy on facebook.
  2. Bob Chill
    1.7? Dude, you're getting at least 2-3" of snow before the flip.
  3. Bob Chill
    Jokes aside, I know I'm getting sleeted on and prob enough to be annoying if I had to guess but sleet is still fun in it's own way. Seeing all these impulses riding is intriguing. My guess is an east trend. Crazy storm though. Full of surprises.
  4. Bob Chill
    Para and cmc are ok but I wont be satisfied until a 4th wave shows up.
  5. Bob Chill
    I often wish my ctrl+alt+del worked on other peoples computers Obligatory analysis. It will sleet more than a little in Rockville
  6. Bob Chill
    I think nam 3k kuchera isn't telling the whole story. It actually snows 4" in DC but the white asteroid and meteor shower pounds the snow into the ground.
  7. Bob Chill
    White asteroids
  8. Bob Chill
    Finally got some free time. And I spent the first 5 minutes of it with my eyes bleeding from the last 2 pages discussing the exact location of a digital blue H. I need relevant analysis like how much in Rockville.
  9. Bob Chill
    I'm way behind on 12/18z runs so nothing important to add. I did poke around with 18z 3k soundings... oh man, there are some SICK periods of snow. Even the sleet is raking everything in its path. Looks like a little instability is showing up around the snow/sleet line when it's rippin. Hopefully a met drops by and explains it better. I see the possibility of thunder in the heavy bands riding the mix line. Who doesnt like thundersleet?
  10. Bob Chill
    Someone please tag me in a post that captures euro 12z output and comparison to 6z. No play by play. Just the skinny. Not IMBY. I'm patient. No time to do it myself. Thanks!
  11. Bob Chill
    Reading between the lines, 12k NAM improved in the mids. First scud missile dodged.
  12. Bob Chill
    The whole "drying trend" is nothing more than guidance adjusting the overdone juicy mid range solutions. Practically every storm does it and is more obvious/pronounced with storms that arent blocked from gaining latitude. Imo- 6z was still very impressive qpf given the precip timeframe. Heavies.
  13. Bob Chill
    Unfortunately no time for me to participate until late afternoon. Imho- 12z meso thermals are important and should be weighted higher than globals now as long as there is no sig divergence with h5 progression. Also, about the right time for globals to start giving some back with heights/confluence. Hope not for sure but typically hard to avoid close in this year
  14. Bob Chill
    Zero line is dotted. All levels good. Rides the 0 line but it's 100% an all snow pounding in that frame
  15. Bob Chill
    Gfs really cut back on the primary to our west again. Almost coastalish now. Crazy
  16. Bob Chill
    I think my yard gets sleet deform banded on the gfs. Lol. Waiting for sounding.
  17. Bob Chill
    @WinterWxLuvr Look at the left hand side of the sounding. The bar graph shows omega/lift at various altitudes. The denritic growth zone (DGZ) is marked in red. Super short answer is you want the biggest bars between the red lines. On this sounding car alarms are going off and visibility is -.5 miles. Yes, it's a minus sign. You can only see what happened half a mile ago cuz it's atomic puking
  18. Bob Chill
    Nobodys tossing mesos. They will get the warm nose more right than the globals. But we're still 48+ range. Mesos can magnify errors that far out. 24 hours from now is different
  19. Bob Chill
    Ehoff has not only moved his own goalposts but doubled down on top of it.
  20. Bob Chill
    Nam will prob be furthest north with mid level temp problems the whole way in. And it will prob get it right at game time. Burning question of course is how much wiggle room if any for snow. Beats me. Like 0z so far tho
  21. Bob Chill
    We'd all be better off just acknowledging that the nam took a couple tabs of acid earlier, is now coming down off the trip, and not analyzing anything beyond that.
  22. Bob Chill
    I guess it really might be possible that the nam was way off the rails and is crawling towards where every single other reliable and unreliable model already is. Didnt see that coming
  23. Bob Chill
    Def wait at least until tomorrow eve if possible but if I were in your shoes I'd grab a wed flight if we're still looking at the same thing the euro/gfs are spitting out. Even if snow fails, if it's still looking like rain with temps in the 20s @ IAD thurs the risk of sig delays and/or cancellations is pretty high. The is the first one of these waves to hit with temps being below freezing for 24+ hours straight before it starts
  24. Bob Chill
    It's obvious man. With all the posting about the other 3-4 threats on the way, it's really confusing figuring out which one people are talking about.
  25. Bob Chill
    We should just go ahead and do it now before 0z. If 0z fails we can immediately delete the thread to save the storm by 6z.
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