Bob Chill

NAM prob has the right idea but I'm not locking into anything in the mid levels until the storm is on approach. At least them it will be a developed system with real time data of the layers inside. Never doubted a mix/mess. Would be a bummer to get such a hard core push of WWA into an OK airmass only to get sand blasted and washed away without covering the grass first.

The storm has been pretty much the same for 5+ straight days. The "tracking" part was mostly us finding a way to get some snow out of a storm with serious temp problems. Far from a fail since the storm is still happening and looks to be about the same as it has.

Reach arounds have happy endings, sometimes

Icon also absolutely sucks at warm noses/mid levels too. And this is the wrong storm by a million miles to be weak in that dept

Exactly. While this storm has some unique and interesting features, it's still a very typical setup and outcome for the track. Prob 50% or more (stat guys can check) of all our measurable snowfalls are mixed around the cities and burbs. We do it often and at times we do it really well. If climo really takes over, not much above freezing rain is going to fall. I've been thinking that's how it's going to play out but models had too much spread to discuss.

A bunch of people have said this but with the track and vigor of this low, there is no stopping a mid level destruction from rushing in anywhere near or east of the low. Unforgiving setup in the mids. My 3-4" call for my yard is predicated on 2-3 hours of mod/hvy snowfall tops before other, less enjoyable stuff happens. I may not get that much but it is the heart of cold season and conditions leading in are good. We'll see

Ops appear to have done nice job on this one from a pretty good range imo. The general idea hasn't wavered for a few days and if you think about it, ensembles made it harder to forecast. Ensembles didn't do all that great at their most useful range. Pretty unusual the way it's played out so far. Only call: 3-4" IMBY

I can't think of a time when the euro gust panels were accurate for any kind of storm. Never checked gfs. Euro always seemed way overdone. I started looking at wind a different way and got much better at predicting. Look at your sustained surface winds instead of gusts. Then add 10-15mph to that for "gusts". Check 925s and see how quick it's ripping just off the deck and make adjustments in your head. Generally speaking, I95 & west really doesn't get big wind gusts without a westerly component. Maybe it's topography. My yard or neighborhood gets little if any wind damage when there's an easterly component.

I was initially thinking ops may be out of whack because the uncommon solution in the face of "ok" upper levels kept ending up inland no matter what timing difference or 500mb shift. That tells us something in the "steering" is pretty stable. Then it became more clear to me. Track has far more to do with that hallway of weakness than anything that happens before with the storm itself. This has prob been rehashed a bunch. Haven't been reading much.

Ops have been really consistent. Minor shifts and the same general idea locked in for a couple days now. IMHO- ops have lead the way here this time.

Climo and antecedent airmass pretty much yells standard thump to slot based on all guidance. We don't get many overhead tracks in real time. Anything is always possible of course. Just playing the odds would be a good heavy thump, mix, slot, drip, refreeze. Lol

More importantly, because of climo and topography, that area is simply further S and often in the crosshairs of the WAA of a developing cyclone. Circulation hasn't destroyed the column nearly as much during onset/heavies as it will when the storm reaches DC latitude. Thumps to rain for DC often have SWVA jack.

It is frustrating really. It's just a little hallway of weakness to the north/nw on approach. But since it creates that hallway, it doesn't matter much how good looks or where it's located as it turns northward. The whole trip north the upper and surface lows are gunning for that hallway

A really good way to use the 12k nam is to just compare h5 anomaly vort panels at hr48. If it looks a little better, the nam's primary usefulness in the mid range is over with how I look at this game. NAM is way too prone to do NAM things beyond hr48 IME but changes thru 48 are important for sure

I can't speak for everybody but I can 100% guaranty there isn't a single bunny or any other rodent or stray pet in my yard after snow flips to something else. You guys may think I'm odd or crazy but you haven't lived until you go on a rodent ass kicking contest in the slush, mud, and rain. Liberating. Eta: just so I don't get doxxed by PETA and harassed the rest of my life... I don't kick hard at all. I'm not playing to kill or even to hurt really. Just a "friendly nudge" to get those beady eye'd mofos off my yard so they can stop staring in my windows laughing at my pain.

Rules of thumb with insitu-CAD setups with bad tracks are surface is stubborn but mids fold like WFT QB's

There is an advantage with mixed events like this. Front side comes in hot, piles up quick, looks amazing, and as soon as sand starts hitting the windows its time to drop the subject completely and move on to something else more productive and interesting. Like kicking bunnies or something like that.

This is why I really don't look beyond storm/no storm outside of 72 hours unless it's locked an loaded. Rounding the base has always looked "ok" but there is a flaw (bruise in the banana high in a bad spot) that isn't going anywhere. Path of least resistance (for now) is overhead and while it's uncommon, the progression makes complete sense. Not much chance for the banana high bruise to go away so now it comes down to where exactly that weakness pulls the low center. IMHO, we're prob at least a full 24 hours away from having a good handle on that piece. All this said, I absolutely do not expect a clean snowstorm anywhere near my house no matter what. But it can still be a pretty solid event even in the cities. .

ICON wants to start pushing the door back open.

Yeah, not sure what this discussion is all about. I can't even remember how many bad track storms dropped 3-6" around the area. They aren't rare. Many of them had much worse conditions leading in. Bad analysis.

Starting to pile up a lot of support for an overhead track. The door for a clean snowstorm is getting awful close to closing for a lot of us. On the other hand, it also looks like a lot of us are going to get more than a little snow. Hard to complain there. The heater continues

I'll always root for the eye of a stacked low to pass over my house. Literally clearish skies. Lol. Would be at night tho unless I'm bad at time.

Tornado watches hoisted.

Gfs is doing what climo usually does. Sometimes that's a good thing.

Agreed. Warm layer/sleet line typically scoots in quicker than models but the boundary layer will be very cold and dense for sure. Nice part about a crappy track in Jan as opposed to Dec or Mar