Bob Chill

After the way models handled tomorrow's storm in the mid range, it's hard to care about much other than the existence of the shortwave itself. I'll say this, if Friday becomes a short range boom scenario, it could be a clue that the mid atl is on a longer duration heater. The switch does flip here and stay on for more than 10 minutes sometimes. From a macro perspective, the 2013-15 stretch should have sucked here. This winter "should" suck too but wx is fickle AF. It loves to keep you guessing

DC itself could end up with a wide range of outcomes based on tiny distances. You're in the best general area of DC so that's good. Foggy bottom or navy yard weenies may not be stoked bros after the storm is done.

Nowcast for that stuff. Need the wall of yellows to roll right overhead with no light green lulls or worse... holes... If the waa is juicy, we avoid relying on a 6 hour windowor less of "rates" to cover everything. The best accum snow will obviously be during the CCB portion. If your ground is still mostly brown by that time, big snows become hard to impossible. If there's 2-4" of gloppy potatoes on the ground when the CCB sets up... oh boy.... hehe The tricky part is nobody can honestly say they know how the front side breaks and until that's figured out, the cold side amounts are nothing more than wild guesses

Most of the long timers here debunked it through experience. All the doubt and hand wringing leading in then "shock and awe" that it stuck. IME, it usually comes down to the start. We all know the ground won't be frozen at all so how does it still pile up? Gotta get a quick start. Miller A's are good at that because the front side WAA snow usually comes in hot and heavy. It has to, otherwise the Pacman starts eating and never stops. If the front piece comes in in pulses and lulls...that's trouble. I've lost half of a storms qpf to melt/nonstick away too many times. 1"/hr rates at night will stick no problem above freezing. Gotta get the blanket down to maximize the cold side of the storm. March 2013 is a great example of how you get screwed even when qpf is good enough.

Hey Buddy, dealing with this stuff is BRUTAL. There is only 1 thing that makes it become less difficult... and that's passing time. I went through losing my best friend to cancer in 2000 (only 32 years old), my father's demise in 2008-9 mother's in 2017-18 and just recently had to put our beloved dog to rest right after Thanksgiving. This doesn't include all the other people I've lost that weren't at the highest connection level. Death is as normal as life in nature but starkly different when you add in emotions. Thankfully time fixes everything. Even when it seems impossible... Speaking from too much experience I can say losing my father hit me the hardest. That father son thing is priceless and incredible but good God does it hurt when it's over.... I'm sure you're already having your own thoughts of mortality. It's a scary place but temporary. Remember this, your father doesn't want you to be sad AT ALL. Quite the opposite. He wants you to thrive and pick up where he left off. You have a chance to honor him in a way only a son can. Stand strong and do what he wants you to do.

Impressed that the GFS was the best (by far) handling H5 in the mid range. I got dragged in when the first few runs hit showing h5 closing off just east of the MS River in the deep south. That's part of our textbook here with southern stream shortwaves. Too soon = rain. Too late = furries or cirrus. Just right? Gfs is perfection, basically

DC douche has been doing that for years. Many years ago, when Wes was active, some troll came along during a high impact event and posted that same thing trying to be "funny". Nobody laughed then and for whatever dumb reason, DC likes to keep repeating it. When nobody remotely remembers the original attempt anymore... I suppose the whole thing neatly packages just how bad of a poster that guy is. Not even original. Just a dumb regurgitator trying too hard

I used to strongly disagree with this but the world has changed for sure. Deep general knowledge is now pretty weak and focused skills are now strong AF. With rapid tech advancement comes efficiency and with efficiency comes less tolerance for "investing in people with potential" and more focus on "how can you make my company money 30 seconds after you punch the clock for the first time". There is no doubt in my mind that my son could be a 6 figure car mechanic before 25 years old. Or 6 figure anything mechanical related really. I'm all for it. Tech school isn't cheap. 40k for 2 years of just school full time. But I now strongly believe the roi is better than UMD (I already put 2 thru UMD. Both are doing excellent but at 100k per kid... "profits" are a LONG way away"

Modelers are sick but I don't like them. I spend to much time f'ing with tones and not enough playing. It's just the way my mind works. I just want to hit a button and plug in. I mean sure, I can just set a modeler one way and leave it right? Sounds easy unless you were born with my brain...

Ellinwood uploaded his map into the 12z gfs and then the gfs did gfs things

I've pondered why the "storm highways" set up the way they do. It's unpredictable at any range b4 it sets up but once a track gets "carved" in an active pattern, it's rather incredible how the atmosphere truly appears to have a memory. Kinda like I70 in the Midwest. So many trucks driving the same road for so long it created depressions in the highway that will steer your car for you. I once went over 20 miles in Central KS without touching the steering wheel. The atmosphere seems to work the same way at times.

Kick ass my man! My son is turning 18 this year. He's focused on tech school instead of college. He's seriously considering training to be a high end car or EV mechanic. Right now we're looking at flipping cars together. You can make 2 grand on a 15 year old Toyota corolla if your willing spend a weekend picking one up down south or OH valley etc.

I played drums for 10 yearsas a teen/early 20s and was 100% rock, hard rock, and slower metal. I played guitar on the side and focused on that stuff only. I was very one way for a very long time and grew away from drums and into guitar randomly in my 30s and 40s. Nowadays my favorite style of playing is blues/rock and/or funk improv style playing. My best skill is prob country style chords and embellishments. Meaning if someone said "hey, play something!" I would jump right into Luke Bryan's drink a beer or similar. But that's not where my heart is. I like to build a groove and just go somewhere with it on the fly. Liberating and medicinal. Guitar is a journey. You will never be as good as you want and will never learn as fast as you want. Also, it's legit painful. To get good or have endurance your hands will hurt daily for years. Especially the left. There are no shortcuts unless you have SRV or Hendrix genetics. 1 hour per day 6 days a week is a bare minimum. If you take 2 months off you will spend a month getting back to where you left off. Many aspiring guitarists quit before they even know if they really can. Dedication and commitment to improving your playing is far more important than raw talent. If you are the type of person to see things through come hell or high water, guitar could be the most incredible thing you've tried. The rewards are endless but the curve is steep and it will try you on every level.

Hey man! What's up? When you're done talking about me, GTF off my lawn

@Jihey man, I've been putting a lot of time into my guitar playing over the last 2 years and have gravitated away from electric to acoustic. Wasn't a plan. Just happened. I picked up a Yamaha fgx830c acoustic/electric that sounds stupid good plugged in but my amp is 100% geared towards electrics. I need another practice amp for the Yamaha. Not a tube or anything "expensive". Just a good clean channel amp with built in basic effects. I almost bought the Spark Amp but held off. Any suggestions? Have an old but good amp you want to sell?

It def can happen but your post illustrates my point perfectly. Once every 10-15 years it happens. And since it did (in my yard) in Jan 2019, we can discuss the next time as we approach 2030.

I'm not going to derail this thread anymore after this. I'm not the same Bob Chill I was for most of the past 15 years. The ROI on snow chasing around here is embarrassingly small. I've wasted enough time with it already. That chapter is closed. I wrote this winter off (as a good setup in general) back in Sept and never changed my mind. It still hasn't changed but that doesn't mean we don't back our way into acceptable events/totals. That said, I'm only going to be here for legit long track coastals and super short range and/or obs threads. I don't give a single F what any op shows d5+ unless it's a big dog. I'm not tracking any middle of the road shortwave beyond 48-72 hours and even then it's a very casual approach. My time is valuable and chasing ghosts is a complete and total waste of it

Remember the early 80s? Couldn't buy a big storm and when accum snow hit, sledding was over noon unless you liked mud wrestling. Some do. Not me. I'm a purist. And I clearly live in the wrong F'n place for that. 2013-14 will prob remain my favorite winter of the 21st century until I'm creamated

I'm at the stage in life in general to just let chips fall and be happy with whatever except a total bust but being full disclosure honest... I'm sick and f'n tired of every fookin storm starting off with a deep and soft mud base that eats snow from below. Sun and cold angle problems above and mud Pacman problems below make my snow weenie very flaccid.

You're not wrong but no matter what you're still 2 level downs below a deb

Ellinwood is smart AF and a really good person overall IME but God damn I usually hate the mf'er when his maps get hoisted...

Bullish! Nice! My skeptimeter is tingling with accum problems. My yard could see nearly 1" qpf but my weenie brain can't get past 4" of potatoes with mud underneath. I'll hug your map and stfu now

As usual, we all have our own problems. SE has the energy and precip but nasogood temps. It will snow at 35 no prob but the stickage is far from efficient. Corridor has a little of both depending on where you live. NW crew has the rates problem but notsomuch the temp problems. When you put this all together... it looks very familiar... Rug pull or that kind of stuff was def not my intent. If you live in the SE zones of the snow part of this storm, the most unlikely outcome is 10:1 snowfall imho Eta: just to be very clear... lol...SE zones are in a great spot for intense snowfall but that doesn't = intense accumulations. There can't be big lulls. Especially after sunrise. If the hot and heavies pile up by dawn it would help a lot there. My yard has the typical problem... wasted front side precip. I've seen plenty of storms waste .3 qpf to SnowTV. Lulls and weak spots in the shield can destroy my hopes and dreams. If the SE crew jacks its prob because the NW side underperformed.

I'm not talking any kind of shift in the track of the upper low. Just that there's always "THE BAND" in the cold side of storms like this on the northern edge of the precip shield and NW of the band usually gets mad AF with light rates and "pulsey" precip. Right now the climo favored zones are dangerously close to the subsidence zone. It happens sometimes. Like in the 2013-15 stretch but far more often than not... I'm not talking about the corridor like our houses. We're in very good spot considering crappy temps and rates usually try to screw the pooch. I'm not expecting a jack but in this particular case... I like where my yard is.

You know I agree with you but it always finds a way.... maybe the vigor of the upper low on the current track "forces the band" to where it should be... idk man... somehow someway...