Bob Chill

Maybe for you. Where I come from it's never too early for LSD. Maybe too early for 3 tabs tho... uh oh ... hmm.... brb

Gfs has a southern stream type storm and track in the east but tracks first through Manitoba, Des Moines, St Louie. Not much of a jump/redevelop at all either. Not saying anything is impossible but when I can't recall a reasonable similar scenario at any time in the past, my doubt meter spikes.

Yea, I'm not sure that post was well thought through. Now I have to root for union bridge busts. I didn't make these rules. Just following.

What made the storm (fail) so memorable was Boston had like 10 feet of snow already and we had basically nothing. Every damn storm missed and went north and every damn storm dumped a mountain. Then Vday weekend came along and cleared the table of that ish. The rest nobody forgets. Haha

@psuhoffman @CAPE You guys remember back in 2015 the week leading into the superbowl in early Feb when there was a northern stream shortwave originally tracking from Indianapolis ESE into our area? We tracked it for about 5 days. Started off with a sweet pass south of us.Very unusual track with suppressive flow. That kept bugging me and sure enough, suppression backed off in the short range and it tracked north of us and destroyed Boston. This weekend reminds me of that. I starkly remember thinking to myself back in 2015 that if that type of setup ever shows up again, that shortwave better start off passing pretty far south in the mid range... we'll see... Eta: that might have been the storm that inspired @Jebman to post the most hilarious rambling rant against Boston that has ever been written. Anywhere. Lol

Idk Yoda, when the h5 vort panel looks like this at hr120 (6-7 shortwaves compressed in a tiny area of the globe), it's safe to assume that it didn't get to the right place, so where it goes from there is likely less right.

The best analysis I can give right now has to do with the people here and not the upcoming upper level setup... The "personality" on winter wx that showed up right before the Monday storm hasn't gone anywhere. Sneaky busy flow has the potential to go from apparent nothingness to wtf omg then back to nothingness and repeat ad nauseum in the mid-long range. Just let time pass and let it all happen until some sort of consensus shows up. We can easily get a big storm out of nowhere or have what seems to be a long track evaporate in a blink. We simply don't have the tech and tools yet to make real sense of the flow and shortwaves beyond 3-4 days in this regime. For me, all I care about is the "general idea" of busy flow with highs and lows in good enough places in the longwave pattern.. Then just pass time until one becomes "real". Sure doesn't look like a 1 and done small window to me. So if one fails, it doesn't matter nearly as much. Heck, maybe a fail becomes a beast 50/50. Not all fails are bad and multiple chances seem almost certain at this point.

Were you on Mars or something on Monday? Southern stream mauling. Come on man. Your posts are bad enough when they have accuracy. This post is plain stoopid

From a hobby perspective, 2013-14 will always be my favorite tracking winter unless it gets topped at some point. That year it all. Ice, snow, bay freeze, below zero, acceptable to exceptional snow totals each month from dec-bitter end of march, multiple types of events from all angles and dangles. I literally got sick of tracking in late March. Never thought it was possible. For that reason alone, it's my personal holy grail year of winter wx tracking in the mid atl.

It can def be our reality but make no mistake, we can also sit in a good stable setup for longer than models think. That 100% happens but heartbreaks are more memorable than good hemispheric patterns. We've had multiple periods in the past that are close to or exactly like what is being shown. One thing they all had in common is they had staying power. Even when lr models tried to break it all down. It's just been a while but that's how our cycles work. Hot streaks and cold streaks embedded into long time cycles. Based on the last week, we are prob already on a hot streak. Sure, fail is always an option but the entire reason this place exists in the first place is to experience a hot streak with a good longwave setup. Don't let recency fail bias cloud your thoughts this time. It truly is different... finaly... At least in the upper levels. Snowfall is more predicated on chaos and luck from here

No big signal on the gefs but one notable change down the line is it now connects the pna to epo ridge. That is the vodka cold setup JB has been predicting every year for as long as the interwebs have been around. Bay freeze pattern. Especially considering the time of year. Even with the super cold look in the upper levels, precip panels remain busy through the end of the run. I'd like to think simple statistics will push one or more of these shortwaves into position for another storm. You and I do the lite beer thing with cold and precip. If the gefs has it right, we get both

If you watch the h5 vort loops, you'll see shortwaves zipping around or spinning all over the CONUS. At one point on the GFS I counted 5 in just the US. All models are doing it too. Extremely complex as you go out in time. This is important to keep in mind. The gfs got to the big storm through a series of shortwaves carving then finally a stream phase. Any mistake and the stream phase prob doesn't happen... Did the gfs nail super busy active flow for 10 straight days? Heh Long tracks rarely if ever have busy flow like this. Expect volatility and sneakyness for as far out as we can see.

If the stars align and I hit climo snowfall by end of Jan I'm satisfied for the year unless something big comes along. Having it happen during the heart of our cold climo/low sun angle is a huge treat and rarely happens. Big bonus points there. Even our good Jans usually have light events. Widespread warning level storms are hard to come by until wavelengths do their thing in Feb I had low expectations like everyone else this year but Nina's can deliver arctic air here during the first 6-8 weeks of met winter sometimes. That's typically their saving grace when we do get ok totals or a few good storms. You can never rule out that possibility a month or more in advance for any reason. It's always a piece of the Nina puzzle that can make a big difference between warm/snowless or compressed cold period with some good fortune with snow. I didn't like Dec and had that sinking feeling. Pac air yawnfests are getting old. Models never showed anything super ugly though when I checked but it was always not far from ok down the line. Late Dec when ens started locking into real cold air in NA and a mechanism to push it eastward, my optimism grew. Now there appears to be a mechanism to lock in the cold that the models locked in on building. More optimistic by the day...

Seems like a lock. Models should start trending stronger with the blocking from here and remove purples and pinks north of NYC here shortly

This is the part of weather that constantly shows us that we are a long way away from really predicting anything seasonally when it comes to snowfall around here (or anywhere really). Some enso phases are better than others. That's indisputable. But that never stops counter periods of compressed and busy winter wx from happening. It just happens sometimes for reasons nobody can or will predict. Nino, Nina, nada, it doesn't matter. Neither does a raging +AO/NAO combo. Yea, that can def be a big problem. But 2013-14 and some of 2015 dropped by and reminded us to not think we know enough about the atmosphere for any kind of definitive calls at monthly or seasonal ranges. Just enjoy what we may or may not get as things look good in the mid range and forget about enso or any super long range thing for now. Time to make hay or something like that

The reason the gfs has such a monster is a perfect stream phase leading in with solid confluence overhead. This will always create a big storm somewhere. Problem is, the odds of a global op nailing a stream phase beyond 5 days is very very low. 10 days? Lol. Fun fiction but not much more.

Textbook mid atl KU setup on mslp panels. Look at that freekin squeeze play on the banana high. I'll take the under on 1045mb but if the "shape" of the sprawling high looks like that (at any time in the next 3 weeks), it satisfies one of the most important ingredients for a KU...

Ji won't scoff at this at all. The problem is, for Ji, this is now the low bar and anything less is a disaster. This storm might already be ruined for him. The downside of long tracks I suppose.

You know those beautiful summer DC late evenings when it's warm and calm and the sun is down so not sweating bullets anymore? Then, because it's calm, the mosquitoes turn you into a pin cushion one little annoying bite at a time? That's Vice in here this morning. You know those same evenings when a mild breeze kicks up and all the mosquitoes disappear? That you banning vice in here this afternoon.

Oh yea, interwebs is a mega farm for trolls looking to ruffle. That's universal. The problem here is that the responses from "normal" posters really highlight my point. Pre game in our storm threads should be studied by Mayo or NIH or something.

Your relative newness here is showing with this post. Everything you say makes perfect sense but you gotta delete those thoughts before clicking on any thread on amwx. Just let it all go. Forget about logic. Forget about reality. Forget about realistic expectations. Forget about what "normal" people "should" be doing. Just open your mind and take a big long look at what's REALLY going on here. This place only draws in fookin weirdos with mental problems. Me included. Prove me wrong

I mean we should... for a list of reasons longer than the dead sea scrolls... but I just can't bring myself to even consider it. Dare I say, in secret, when nobody is looking, and there is no way to get caught, I find myself thoroughly enjoying every single one of Ji's posts? It's like meth. You know you should never fukkin touch it and you know what pain it can bring to families and friends. But for reasons beyond conscious control, you take a big long hit and start thinking about the next one... never done meth but reading Ji's posts for over 15 years is prob close enough

Our best events historically come after Ji's most entertaining melts. We're in the warmup phase. Once the climax of the meltdown is complete, we'll see the leading edge of a big dog on radar. I didn't write these rules and they really don't make a lick of sense but if Ji isn't melting, it isn't snowing.

Nah, we're good. Long history of course and I don't mind. Vice's posts themselves do an excellent job of insulting him without anyone having to put in work. Let it rip

Since 2015, for whatever reason, the pac jet has been consistently pushing pac maritime air into North America. Last time we had extended continental air pushes (2013-15) cold records went down and the bay froze across at the bridge. Is the pac jet just a wobble in the giant multi-decadal oscialltion or is it a response to warmer oceans and air? I'm leaning towards a wobble and not a new normal but worth watching and discussing in the coming years