Bob Chill

Starting to pile up a lot of support for an overhead track. The door for a clean snowstorm is getting awful close to closing for a lot of us. On the other hand, it also looks like a lot of us are going to get more than a little snow. Hard to complain there. The heater continues

I'll always root for the eye of a stacked low to pass over my house. Literally clearish skies. Lol. Would be at night tho unless I'm bad at time.

Tornado watches hoisted.

Gfs is doing what climo usually does. Sometimes that's a good thing.

Agreed. Warm layer/sleet line typically scoots in quicker than models but the boundary layer will be very cold and dense for sure. Nice part about a crappy track in Jan as opposed to Dec or Mar

I lived along the divide in the rockies for 7 years and the largest 24 hour snowfall I can remember is 35" and it happened around Memorial Day weekend of all times. No snow below 10k' but most of my county was above that. Generally speaking, 24" in 24 hours is a massive single storm. However, storm cycles can dump 6-12" every day for 10 days so there's a big difference but the mid atl and NE get hit with very special snowstorms. Geography is powerful.

Remember a few days ago when suppression was the biggest fear when slp was tracking through Indianopolis? Always remember history because it repeats. Obviously now it's entirely different but still, I was never once worried about a whiff south when this thing showed up. My concern was no storm at all so that was avoided at least for now. I'd be good with a deep closed 500mb low tracking overhead. Rare occurrence so again, it seems "off" but I say bring it. Stormier the better.

Keep what @high riskrisk said yesterday in the front of your mind about the gfs op and its respective ens control and suite. They currently do not run on the same physics so even the gefs control really has no good analysis comparison to the gfs op. Basically treat them separately when they diverge

He's finally getting it. I'll say it one more time... you have to be truly heartfelt nice to wx models and Ma Nature or else. It's killing Ji that I went 2 for 2 and he went 1 for 2 so he's trying to catch up.

We had some amazing ones during the 3 year snow drought. Mine didn't come until 2013 I think. Before the March debacle iirc. After that I was literally unstable as a person and an overall liability to society in general Eta: then 2013-14 walked in the door and literally saved my life and the universe and the 4th dimension from extinction

Yea, this will be my last post on this topic. I shouldn't even have started it. I already said this stuff last year. Personally, I absolutely love a good melt or epic rant... but only when it's appropriate for where we are. When I melt you can be assured it was a short term shift to disaster. Not 5 days out from am extremely complicated setup. Rants and melts should be saved for the highest impact timing. Not every 6 hours far beyond the range of a storm being real. Lol

I had a bit of a life epiphany back in early 2019. We're conditioned to think and feel certain ways about life, politics, relationships, and ALL the other stuff. Most (if not all) gets wrapped in negative emotional cycles because of this. Especially politics but applies all over. Sports. Friends. Co-workers. Church if that's your thing. And on and on Well, I'm the f'n boss, not society or societal construct rules. I know exactly what brings negative cycles into my thoughts and emotions so you know what I did? I f*cking removed them! I don't watch news anymore at all (I read what's important to me. No watching random crap). Idgaf about the WFT, the white house, I dropped my negative friends (told them all exactly why in a respectful way), and grabbed my own live by the horns. I have never ever felt more powerful as a person than I do today. I could talk an hour more about this but that's the gist. But with all the personal changes comes some collateral or sympathetic effects. One of which is not being around here much anymore and with how this place operates that will continue to decline. It sucks but it's a me thing and I'm on the right track across the board in my life

It's been proven that 4 out of 3 people have problems with fractions and math.

When Wes and the rest of the old crew was active it was very different here. The primary focus was always the science and not the emotions. Plenty of weeniesm of course but the foundation was real analysis first. That flipped a few years ago for whatever reason. Feels like the old way is never coming back unfortunately

One of the big reasons I started wanting to participate less last few years is exactly whats going on today (and any day) there's a mid range possibility. Tension and hand wringing about who gets a jackpot when it's not even clear if we're going to get anything at all... People get very very far ahead of themselves when things are tense and it really does suck the life out of me. I mean sure, if a nearby jackpot is seemingly locking in inside of 72 hours.... beat that ish to death. Right now all anybody should care about is being in the game or not. Not counting your chickens in a 50 mile wide swatch of digital heavies on a storm in the mid range. I can't participate in that at all because its not appropriate for where we are on the clock. Waste of time and energy but that's just me.

Get a grip man. You're certain it's definite the cities won't get a flush hit 5 days in advance and now your feeling the fizzle beyond that? Are you listening to yourself? You're just walking around here dropping moist blankets on autopilot. Seems like an attempt at reverse psychology.

After hearing about how bad the ICON is for days, I have a hunch the narrative changes going forward.

Loudoun and fdk people are 1-2 That's because you guys aren't nice enough to wx models and ma nature. I can't help that

The thing that's bothering me the most about this storm is we just went 2 for 2. I mean sure, there's a strong case that the universe owes us some storms after some of the recent debacles. But still... 3 for 3? Idk man. We are who we think we were and stuff

Yeah man, this is odd. Haven't had a chance to look at everything but the rip and read shows something strange under the hood on this one. This isn't that far out in time to have the big 3 global ops and ens disconnect. Especially the same way? For now I'm going to keep it simple. Just get the shield here somehow some way. Cold is here. On the move but plenty of cold for front side something. Seems premature to be worrying about a narrow 20" stripe of digital snow from a storm that could end up anywhere still

Oh wow. Thank you for this man! I haven't been paying nearly as much attention to things like that last few years. Didn't realize this and yes, this does make a big difference in the way I look at model runs with storms now. Maybe I'll just do what it says to do on page 3 of the weenie handbook and hug the snowiest model and toss everything else. We're on a heater anyways. .

Quick and dirty.... Global ops are high(er) resolution mid/long range models. They create a detailed movie every 6-12 hours Ensemble controls are lower resolution versions of their respective ops but run with identical data at initialization as their respective global ops. When ensemble controls have a significantly different outcome by d4-5 than the operational, the most likely culprit is the high resolution of the op is prob overdoing something. A clue that things are more complicated than they may seem and always tells me to pay closer attention to details Ensemble means contain an average of 25-50 low resolution members that each run with slightly different data (perturbations or something like that) than their respective ops and controls. Main reason ens means exist is errors early or at initialization get magnified out in time. Little mistake early = big change later. With Ensemble suites the errors get smoothed (hopefully) and the ens mean output is statistically more likely to happen than the op or controls beyond 4-5 days

Def don't listen to this guy. He's a dum dum

Ah! Not carbon copies or anything but for sure strange and similar with the entire track/progression. I'll have to look at the Jan 2000 h5 maps tonight. Interesting.

I'll clarify. In on snow chance for weekend until it's confirmed no go. Out on the Miller B that cross dressed as a Miller A on the 6z gfs