Bob Chill

Having fun yet tracking steep hills in a progressive pattern at pretty long leads? I'm having a hard time deciding between tracking this event or contracting chlamydia. Brb

Would be nice if we could actually get a real HP in a more classic spot with one of these waves. Don't need a big block (would be nice lol) but strong closed lows to our south are warm air vacuums. Euro is a nice storm but awful setup for a cold feed on top. Just a simple banana or even pickle shaped 1030 sliding across our noggins as precip approaches would work.

This is a jacked up year. I haven't watched nearly as close as others but it seems like ops have been leading ensembles for a month. Backwards AF lol

Some sort of wrapped up storm in general has been showing consistently for 3+ days now. Personally, I hate tracking these events. So much happens in such a short time with development and then add 6 days to the lead and... well... ummm... this thread is going to be disastrous daily. If you don't like nerve pain, tooth aches, slipped discs, 3rd degree burns, and a couple random STDs.... I'd stay the F away. Throw away your reading glasses and cancel your internet. Thank me later.

40'+ waves. The ghost of Andrea Gail.

Gfs solution doesn't even have a headline invented yet. Blizzard warning wouldn't do it. Check out the 925mb winds. Lol. Hehe

Trend or reversion? Lol. We no doubt have a luck budget here. No idea how to calculate it but it's a real thing

Well, after going 3 for 3 and feeling cocky, I was quickly reminded that we are who we thought we were. Models busting low on temps by more than 5 degrees last night was the cannon across the bow. No biggie. I was never really into this one. Anafronts with well above freezing after midnight have a tough path to win

Exactly. I mean sure, -pna is not favored here. Never has never will. Not all pnas are equally bad. As long as the western half of Canada keeps the -epo cold factory intact, we're always just a front or 2 away from snow temps. Seen far worse in recent years. That's for sure. Lol

La ninas tend to make a come back late Feb through mid march. March 2001 redux coming Weird year right? A flip to an annoying -pna makes a lot of sense unfortunately. The west got straight blitzed with a storm cycle to close the year then mostly ridge/dry since. Time for that to change. Doesn't mean we roast. No idea. But a trough returning in the west for a time seems highly likely to my gut. Then, like you said, maybe another busy cold period. A -pna in Feb isn't always bad anyways. Depends on how the wavelengths set up. Canada remains good for manufacturing cold air in general. A -pna in that environment is far from the same when then pac jet goes zonal. That's a shutout

Agree with you. Anytime we have a broad conus trough with cold highs sliding by to our north, we're in the game. I actually prefer broad troughs except for big dogs. Opens the door for a wide range of vectors that can hit us. Big steep troughs/ridges only provide a 1 lane highway. I like 270 + the commuter lanes pointed at my yard

No problem at all. Always keep in mind, no matter what any model shows IRT a storm, if the run is showing something that rarely if ever happens in your yard, go with your climo. This was my mental breakthrough some years back. Topography, geography, and latitude are powerful drivers in our area. That's why storms often break the same way over and over in your yard. Don't expect a different outcome to come frequently or easy

They didn't really miss anything. Had a hard time resolving multiple shortwave in fast flow out in time just like they always do. This stuff cuts both ways. Sometimes storms go poof and other times they go pop. Whenever we are in a busy NS pattern, you simply can't trust or feel confident in anything beyond 72 hours. Models did an excellent job honing in. Just wasn't the result most hoped for

I wish it was that black and white. Overall, on the balance, gfs is pretty good with NS driven patterns. However, gfs has been upgraded pretty recently and it takes a while to figure out strengths and weaknesses. I've thought the new gfs was pretty good when it was the FV3 or whatever it was called. Ran too cold but did well in mid range. The atmosphere is nearly infinitely complex when it comes to turning math into a simulation. No one model is ever even close to being "the one". That's where the fun of this hobby comes from. In the midrange, all models are wrong. How and what is wrong is up to the interpreter.

Whatever "it" is about this progressive Northern stream pattern, it fits the gfs physics the best. Don't know what and it will definitely flip again but for right now, the gfs is the mid range king as long as the general longwave pattern holds in its current form imo.

I didn't like the setup at all for the big euro solutions but I still felt pretty strongly that a weak shortwave would attack from the WSW. About out of time to flip to a chance at 3-6. Northern stream is tricky here. You can't rule things out too early and you can't have confidence in any decent sized storm. OTOH, if my yard gets 1" or more tomorrow then it's 4-4. Hot streaks have limits. Lol

Anyone consider what might happen if the front simply doesn't push as far south and all else stays the same?

Fixed your typo

History/climo says a flip to warm and early end to winter. But this winter has made every long range forecaster remember that it's impossible to predict snow in advance. So, it's impossible for me or you or anyone to have any idea what Feb has in store. Looks to start off the same way this month is prob going to end. Looking beyond that isn't something I do beyond a wild guess like everyone else. Lol

Well, it's a Nina, northern stream dominant, no stable block, and also January. A big storm will have a lot to overcome until Feb imho. Not being satisfied with THIS January is ridiculous.

Low end warning totals for our yards is a reasonable boom here. We've seen plenty of these over the years. The typical screw job when we're in the crosshairs is losing on the front due to temps. I have no strong feeling as to whether or not the jack stripe runs the typical climo line or not but for now, it seems like it should.

Euro is perfectly realistic with upper level setup. Makes more sense than a wound bomb (which would be awesome of course). 4 days out on the northern periphery of the cold snow side of a progressive shortwave? How can you not like that? And not figting temps tooth and nail? Mostly importantly, we are on a heater and yes, it does want to snow here.

I have no time to have fun here today until late but please remember this has never been and currently isn't a big storm setup. It can happen with a vigorous ULL pass but the macro pieces all point towards a quick hitting 3-6/4-8 for whomever is in the middle of the lucky stripe. Neg tilt or closed off shortwave is the boom scenario. Otherwise a power progressive wave/stripe is highly favored imho only

Back during the hot runs in 2014 & 15, we had a lot of things go poof in the mid range only to have them poof back different and snow anyway.

This is a lot better setup leading in than yesterday. An actual cold air pump feeding the storm. There's a lot to like but tricky part is snow stripe will prob be narrow. Statistics and odds and stuff. Lol. Otoh, eps has some closed off bombs. Those def don't have narrow stripes. Haha