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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    Yeah, but not a single person here is surprised at your complete lack of optimism 24/7/365. Somebody has to make up for all that bad energy or it really will never snow again
  2. Bob Chill
    I've never owned any thermo that remains accurate in direct sun. Even the ones that swear they do. I don't think they accountanted for increasing climate change sun angle in their design
  3. Bob Chill
    We could have a 50" storm and PDI will still be #1 for me. When I hit the garage door opener shortly after sunrise, my life changed forever. I had never seen such a spectacle and I immediately became addicted to big storms. The desire to experience them only grew stronger during the decades following. For me, PDI truly was a life changing event. In a good or bad way is hotly debatable
  4. Bob Chill
    Flush hits require more than what has been offered so on the balance, we're actually doing pretty good. Better than most similar years. Northern stream winters are always frustrating and always leave you feeling that it should have been MUCH better... if just "fill in blank" worked out. I look at it a little different. Any all snow event is a win. Any snowfall over 4-5" is a big win. We could repeat this same exact pattern every winter for 10 years and 1 or 2 will be really big, most avg at best but kinda lame, and some making you want to gently nudge little bunnies off your lawn. Problem is, there's no way to predict any of that in advance. You just gotta roll with the punches and see what sticks. Any time there's amplified flow with the right trajectory and/or axis, a big storm is possible. Not predictable at long leads. Not obvious with the longwave features. But still happen. That chance has been on the table and is still on the table for as far as you can see. But never lose sight of the fact that most if not all chances will be janky and not classic.
  5. Bob Chill
    Whenever we sit in progressive NS flow (often AF lol), you have to mentally approach it with an open mind to what "can pop up at any moment". Just because nothing is there for a couple days on ops isn't a reason to close the blinds. 40 degree 850 temps and no cold north? Yea, slam that f'r shut. Revolving door of cold fronts where each pack enough cold mid level air on the heels to keep us in the game? That's like our default state in a non-shutout pattern. Lol
  6. Bob Chill
    Gfs does a really good job sometimes. I really like the recent upgrade for winter wx. One of the common errors is speed of fronts and how south or east they get d2-4. But that's easy to work with. When it's the eastest, move a little westest and you prob nail it.
  7. Bob Chill
    Ever since the turn if the year, practically every event (real or digital) has been sneaky and jacked up. That's not changing unless the NAO decides it's time. It's def disappointing seeing ops dry paint but unless there's a big storm patten (haven't seen one this year really), any event in the next 10 days is going to be sneaky and weird. Just keep our column supportive of snow as much as possible and let the chips fall. That's what I see. No discrete window or shortwave.
  8. Bob Chill
    You know this stuff backwards and forwards but Ive been seeing a trend towards putting a single piece of guidance too far above everything else just because. I don't like it at all. It kills good discussion. Using recent past performance of ops to definitively judge future performance is almost always a mistake. This game has never worked that way except when the euro dominated the mid range accuracy. Those days are long over. All ops are good and bad at different things. Since the atmosphere is nearly infinitely complex, it's impossible to know exactly what causes an op to stand out on a specific setup. It is always best to use all available guidance then use your brain to finish the job. Model hugging is an exercise in getting egg on your face. Don't believe me? Just ask DT.
  9. Bob Chill
    You got some STIFF competition my friend
  10. Bob Chill
    The only way to get to the bottom of this is to start a thread at the beginning of each month to discuss how/when we are going to start monthly wx threads.
  11. Bob Chill
    This one has a pretty clear setup for the NW to overperform and burbs to not be disrupted at all except for wet roads. A few small shifts away from impact closer in but few if any ice events like this have amounted to much and this spans many years. Eta: there was def a path to a disruptive event up and down 95. I'm just not seeing it anymore. If everything lined up, it would be pretty apparent. Not chasing a "maybe" under 3 days out.
  12. Bob Chill
    @WxUSAFI'm cautious af entertaining the bowl idea but I think it's finally going happen. We kept seeing it pop on ens but ops on fantasy land never really agreed. By the time the "carve" was supposed to happen it was a week away. This has been happening for at least 7-10 days on guidance from my rip and reads. Now we're seeing fantasy gfs constantly dropping the height hammer. If there's a big storm in our future, my guess is it won't happen until the big carve reaches its apex and starts retreating. An event like the Midwest is seeing this week would be the way. Pajamas backwards and stuff
  13. Bob Chill
    Waaaay too much focus on black and white euro vs gfs. They're both right and wrong and they are both shifting. Don't pit them against each other. Use them both to figure out what's in between.
  14. Bob Chill
    Op is much more reliable than the gefs Problem is they aren't really connected anymore. Same init data but different maths and stuff from there. You can use op/ens comparison. Each has to be looked at in isolation.
  15. Bob Chill
    Feb is such a great month. Sun is lighting up the deep south and baronclinic zone so little storms can hold big precip. The entire pattern coming up has plenty of juice to work with. No doubt there. Good times.
  16. Bob Chill
    We all know there are somewhere between most and everyone here that have already decided its legit.
  17. Bob Chill
    So the surface looks pretty straightforward for the follow up storm right? Then you look here and hit the brakes on everything. When vort panels look like they got hit with buckshot, the future is very very uncertain.
  18. Bob Chill
    Laurel ice weenies are no doubt rooting for another 3 hundredths
  19. Bob Chill
    My weenie hopium just flipped the the gfs losing the mid level warm air vacuum low near the lakes for the follow up wave. Still return flow but no turbocharger
  20. Bob Chill
    If we can pull off a nice draping alignment over top from the front then it's not cold chasing precip... it's precip running into cold. We've had quite a few events like this. The biggest (obvious) challenge is can the front progress fast enough... idk tho, fronts seems to drag behind guidance in this progressive pattern.
  21. Bob Chill
    Doesn't have to be that complicated. Euro lags because the weak slp wave running it. Are we sure that's the correct timing? What if things get strung out an the final wave lags? Front progression or lack thereof when it counts has something to do with a small synoptic feature timing. I can't count the # of times we "thought" we knew how a boundary setup is going to work in the mid range only to get surprised in the short range (72 hours or less)
  22. Bob Chill
    Exactly where we want it. Either that or in the trash. One or the other
  23. Bob Chill
    Best ice events are almost always on the front side of deep cold. More typical is on the retreat. That stuff fizzles from an impact standpoint. Accreting ice when temps and dews are dropping is the way. We don't see it too often but it def happens and when it does it looks like the gfs
  24. Bob Chill
    Gfs has had 4 straight runs and 12z was a very noticeable move. I thought the other guidance was still waffling around and no making progress towards winter wx. I could be waaay wrong. Haven't looked close enough.
  25. Bob Chill
    That little weak low running the gauntlet is a bit too quick and blocks the mids from pressing when we need it. Delay that wave by just 6-12 hours and the front has a much better chance to drape far enough south. The extra synoptic push on the front happens too early. Can't lose sight of the fact that the gfs is kind alone with this trend right now tho...
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