Jump to content

Bob Chill

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    35,956

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    Gfs does a really good job sometimes. I really like the recent upgrade for winter wx. One of the common errors is speed of fronts and how south or east they get d2-4. But that's easy to work with. When it's the eastest, move a little westest and you prob nail it.
  2. Bob Chill
    Ever since the turn if the year, practically every event (real or digital) has been sneaky and jacked up. That's not changing unless the NAO decides it's time. It's def disappointing seeing ops dry paint but unless there's a big storm patten (haven't seen one this year really), any event in the next 10 days is going to be sneaky and weird. Just keep our column supportive of snow as much as possible and let the chips fall. That's what I see. No discrete window or shortwave.
  3. Bob Chill
    You know this stuff backwards and forwards but Ive been seeing a trend towards putting a single piece of guidance too far above everything else just because. I don't like it at all. It kills good discussion. Using recent past performance of ops to definitively judge future performance is almost always a mistake. This game has never worked that way except when the euro dominated the mid range accuracy. Those days are long over. All ops are good and bad at different things. Since the atmosphere is nearly infinitely complex, it's impossible to know exactly what causes an op to stand out on a specific setup. It is always best to use all available guidance then use your brain to finish the job. Model hugging is an exercise in getting egg on your face. Don't believe me? Just ask DT.
  4. Bob Chill
    You got some STIFF competition my friend
  5. Bob Chill
    The only way to get to the bottom of this is to start a thread at the beginning of each month to discuss how/when we are going to start monthly wx threads.
  6. Bob Chill
    This one has a pretty clear setup for the NW to overperform and burbs to not be disrupted at all except for wet roads. A few small shifts away from impact closer in but few if any ice events like this have amounted to much and this spans many years. Eta: there was def a path to a disruptive event up and down 95. I'm just not seeing it anymore. If everything lined up, it would be pretty apparent. Not chasing a "maybe" under 3 days out.
  7. Bob Chill
    @WxUSAFI'm cautious af entertaining the bowl idea but I think it's finally going happen. We kept seeing it pop on ens but ops on fantasy land never really agreed. By the time the "carve" was supposed to happen it was a week away. This has been happening for at least 7-10 days on guidance from my rip and reads. Now we're seeing fantasy gfs constantly dropping the height hammer. If there's a big storm in our future, my guess is it won't happen until the big carve reaches its apex and starts retreating. An event like the Midwest is seeing this week would be the way. Pajamas backwards and stuff
  8. Bob Chill
    Waaaay too much focus on black and white euro vs gfs. They're both right and wrong and they are both shifting. Don't pit them against each other. Use them both to figure out what's in between.
  9. Bob Chill
    Op is much more reliable than the gefs Problem is they aren't really connected anymore. Same init data but different maths and stuff from there. You can use op/ens comparison. Each has to be looked at in isolation.
  10. Bob Chill
    Feb is such a great month. Sun is lighting up the deep south and baronclinic zone so little storms can hold big precip. The entire pattern coming up has plenty of juice to work with. No doubt there. Good times.
  11. Bob Chill
    We all know there are somewhere between most and everyone here that have already decided its legit.
  12. Bob Chill
    So the surface looks pretty straightforward for the follow up storm right? Then you look here and hit the brakes on everything. When vort panels look like they got hit with buckshot, the future is very very uncertain.
  13. Bob Chill
    Laurel ice weenies are no doubt rooting for another 3 hundredths
  14. Bob Chill
    My weenie hopium just flipped the the gfs losing the mid level warm air vacuum low near the lakes for the follow up wave. Still return flow but no turbocharger
  15. Bob Chill
    If we can pull off a nice draping alignment over top from the front then it's not cold chasing precip... it's precip running into cold. We've had quite a few events like this. The biggest (obvious) challenge is can the front progress fast enough... idk tho, fronts seems to drag behind guidance in this progressive pattern.
  16. Bob Chill
    Doesn't have to be that complicated. Euro lags because the weak slp wave running it. Are we sure that's the correct timing? What if things get strung out an the final wave lags? Front progression or lack thereof when it counts has something to do with a small synoptic feature timing. I can't count the # of times we "thought" we knew how a boundary setup is going to work in the mid range only to get surprised in the short range (72 hours or less)
  17. Bob Chill
    Exactly where we want it. Either that or in the trash. One or the other
  18. Bob Chill
    Best ice events are almost always on the front side of deep cold. More typical is on the retreat. That stuff fizzles from an impact standpoint. Accreting ice when temps and dews are dropping is the way. We don't see it too often but it def happens and when it does it looks like the gfs
  19. Bob Chill
    Gfs has had 4 straight runs and 12z was a very noticeable move. I thought the other guidance was still waffling around and no making progress towards winter wx. I could be waaay wrong. Haven't looked close enough.
  20. Bob Chill
    That little weak low running the gauntlet is a bit too quick and blocks the mids from pressing when we need it. Delay that wave by just 6-12 hours and the front has a much better chance to drape far enough south. The extra synoptic push on the front happens too early. Can't lose sight of the fact that the gfs is kind alone with this trend right now tho...
  21. Bob Chill
    One of the best visuals illustrating how arctic fronts can sometimes work here. Trajectory has really changed into something workable in a few runs. This is right out of the 2013-15 playbook. WAR backs off leading in and the cold dense air forces its way south. Starting off in a bad place with limited time but the door to success is still open.
  22. Bob Chill
    Not quite a foot of ice but an inch would work for some free entertainment
  23. Bob Chill
    Just a weenie but there's a bread and butter way here. Right now the drape is getting sweet but vertically, the cold literally has too much angle. Coldest air at the surface then lags as you go up. There is no reason right now to think its impossible to get the mids to cooperate. Gfs looks close enough for 3-4 days. No room to go backwards tho.
  24. Bob Chill
    Red Boars is better. Wild pigs are mean AF. Hogs? Fat, happy, lazy, and pretty boring to watch. Hmm... hogs making more sense now....
  25. Bob Chill
    Hard to envision enough time as is to get the mass of cold down far enough to do anything with precip mass. However, bend that front and stretch things a little and it could break down into 2 waves. Rain, drape, snow. Need that drape tho. Maybe 12z keeps going
×
×
  • Create New...