Bob Chill

This is the best 18z gfs run I've seen today by far

The 2-4 potential isn't really a low odds "pull off" kind of deal. The upper energy is coming no matter what. How much juice it can work with is attached to the coastal for a boom scenario but it can work with current slp track as is.

I'm becoming focused on the escape hatch polar/ns interaction now. The big coastal can still blast us but until that's locked, escape hatch is looking pretty tasty. Cold high ratio snow followed by very strong winds. What's not to like?

Closed ridges can be fun. Very vigorous high pressures that can dump 3' of sunshine in less than 24 hours

IIRC, certain lake effect setups can create squalls with rotation and "snowspouts". Need this in my yard STAT

Snow is the apex goal of course but dammit, I like winter personality too. It's a short season. We can get very legit winter wx here in between boring stretches. A winter without appeal makes my weenie very soft and wrinkly. This winter (Jan) has been very appealing and my weenie shows it

That's just the universe having a blast at your expense through quantum mechanics. Embrace it. It won't last long. Universe always pays you back after initiation fees

What probably ends up happening is coincidence imo. Maybe not every time but by the time a shortwave hits the conus, leads are pretty short and models should be honing in due to less time/error problems. The seeming "jump" in guidance happens all over that timeframe shortening. Shortwave sampling or statistical accuracy? Cast your vote

I think its more simple than that. It's related to the monetary value of their posts and even then it's pretty steep

It's a hybrid. The too late developer and very common. And leans rather clearly on the Miller B spectrum. How many miller's As developed too late for us and didn't rain and/or snow anywhere southwest of us?

Tracker's pbp is the shizzle. This is the new way. Not optional though. Sorry Randy. You gonna b up late A LOT.

You just inspired me to make another edit. 2 official MA storm types are Miller Awesomes and Miller Bads. My work is done here

It was a softball! I'll go look in the parking lot for it. Brb

The Miller whatever letter debate is endless. There are extremely clear examples of both through history but there are many MORE examples of something in between. Bottom line, any developed storm that attacks from the south and sends a wall of waa qpf into a cold dome then everything tracks east of us is a Miller Awesome. Any storm that requires 2 pieces to play nice together AND/OR develop NEAR OR NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE with progressive flow is a MILLER BAD. Period. Eta: think of it like this. Every time you see a coastal threat on the models, ask yourself these questions: How developed is the storm south of us on approach? Does precip blossom on top or bee line from below? If the precip is the blossom type AND the storm goes through key development phases anywhere north of OBX...you better f'n worry until the day after you're done shoveling. Maybe 2 days.... Eta #2: don't even think about "how much?" yet. That discussion has negative value. Nobody knows how this will break here until really close leads. Just like every other past and future storm like it. All I can think about is whether or not my yard accidentally gets in the way of something that is really F'n good at avoiding it. When I read people discussing amounts it makes me wonder how long they've lived here lol

Once I conceded and accepted that ANY measurable snowfall from events like this are pure gifts, I learned to live this way after boxing day 2010...

Yes, exactly. Its an escape hatch of sorts. Most of us could possibly entirely miss the coastal and still have a decent event of cold powder. Problem is, people care so much what SNE gets that a "decent" event is a disaster regardless if the coastal does ye 'ole skip-da-malooo (like they often do and everyone knows it lol).

The northern stream interaction at our latitude is really grabbing some consensus. This can be a blessing and a curse. In this case prob a blessing because the volatile track and typical outcome with these deals. Northern stream can add lift overhead that can wring out the atmophsere in a way that gives us an ok event even if the big show goes climo on us. Without it, the sharp gradient on the edge is near certain. With it, it changes quite a bit of what is possible. The curse is the dead zone in between. But if the dead zone would be there without the northern stream, it's still a blessing.

Goalposts starting to look half decent now. Might be forced to get interested. Or at least rip and read 12z analysis here. TIA!

Wasatch gets a special kind of snow I've never experienced anywhere else. Even in Jackson after an epic dump. Back then we called it "blower". Cold smoke was up and down the rockies. But blower gave you a literal weightless feeling. Such little resistance for the depth. Step terrain in blower snow feels like different gravity and control. If you could bottle it in little pills the whole world would be addicted.

Is something going on with the drinking water in SeVa?

I find your pessimism absolutely shocking and out of character. ....wait a minute... scratch that, I was thinking of someone else

All of that is on the table thankfully. We don't really know what each piece will look like yet (miss or not). I'll only believe my yard is in the game for a nearly due north tracking, unblocked, and amplified coastal is after I shovel. These setups can be 99% perfect but then a random snow goose flying through at the wrong time rips an average at best goose fart and knocks the storm east of Bermuda.

Even after 7 seasons in CO, my top 2 days ever skiing were both at Alta. One inbounds and one out. Colorado's snow stays in much better condition in between storm cycles but skiing at Alta during a Wasatch storm cycle is prob one of the best places in the world rip.

Could be great or awful. One thing it would do is add a few days to the progression. I hate delays with progressive cold but a cutoff attacking from the south can be fun af. We'll see

Out to sea solutions and southern sliders are the worst to me. I'd rather flirt with a snow to rain track then a wind track We need to watch that drag in the tail as the sw drops thru the west. With the tpv lobe running out in front it could get cutoff completely. This panel shows the risk to my eyes. Speed up the tpv/polar jet energy and the dig cuts off down south somewhere.