Jump to content

Bob Chill

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    35,956

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    Snow is the apex goal of course but dammit, I like winter personality too. It's a short season. We can get very legit winter wx here in between boring stretches. A winter without appeal makes my weenie very soft and wrinkly. This winter (Jan) has been very appealing and my weenie shows it
  2. Bob Chill
    That's just the universe having a blast at your expense through quantum mechanics. Embrace it. It won't last long. Universe always pays you back after initiation fees
  3. Bob Chill
    What probably ends up happening is coincidence imo. Maybe not every time but by the time a shortwave hits the conus, leads are pretty short and models should be honing in due to less time/error problems. The seeming "jump" in guidance happens all over that timeframe shortening. Shortwave sampling or statistical accuracy? Cast your vote
  4. Bob Chill
    I think its more simple than that. It's related to the monetary value of their posts and even then it's pretty steep
  5. Bob Chill
    It's a hybrid. The too late developer and very common. And leans rather clearly on the Miller B spectrum. How many miller's As developed too late for us and didn't rain and/or snow anywhere southwest of us?
  6. Bob Chill
    Tracker's pbp is the shizzle. This is the new way. Not optional though. Sorry Randy. You gonna b up late A LOT.
  7. Bob Chill
    You just inspired me to make another edit. 2 official MA storm types are Miller Awesomes and Miller Bads. My work is done here
  8. Bob Chill
    It was a softball! I'll go look in the parking lot for it. Brb
  9. Bob Chill
    The Miller whatever letter debate is endless. There are extremely clear examples of both through history but there are many MORE examples of something in between. Bottom line, any developed storm that attacks from the south and sends a wall of waa qpf into a cold dome then everything tracks east of us is a Miller Awesome. Any storm that requires 2 pieces to play nice together AND/OR develop NEAR OR NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE with progressive flow is a MILLER BAD. Period. Eta: think of it like this. Every time you see a coastal threat on the models, ask yourself these questions: How developed is the storm south of us on approach? Does precip blossom on top or bee line from below? If the precip is the blossom type AND the storm goes through key development phases anywhere north of OBX...you better f'n worry until the day after you're done shoveling. Maybe 2 days.... Eta #2: don't even think about "how much?" yet. That discussion has negative value. Nobody knows how this will break here until really close leads. Just like every other past and future storm like it. All I can think about is whether or not my yard accidentally gets in the way of something that is really F'n good at avoiding it. When I read people discussing amounts it makes me wonder how long they've lived here lol
  10. Bob Chill
    Once I conceded and accepted that ANY measurable snowfall from events like this are pure gifts, I learned to live this way after boxing day 2010...
  11. Bob Chill
    Yes, exactly. Its an escape hatch of sorts. Most of us could possibly entirely miss the coastal and still have a decent event of cold powder. Problem is, people care so much what SNE gets that a "decent" event is a disaster regardless if the coastal does ye 'ole skip-da-malooo (like they often do and everyone knows it lol).
  12. Bob Chill
    The northern stream interaction at our latitude is really grabbing some consensus. This can be a blessing and a curse. In this case prob a blessing because the volatile track and typical outcome with these deals. Northern stream can add lift overhead that can wring out the atmophsere in a way that gives us an ok event even if the big show goes climo on us. Without it, the sharp gradient on the edge is near certain. With it, it changes quite a bit of what is possible. The curse is the dead zone in between. But if the dead zone would be there without the northern stream, it's still a blessing.
  13. Bob Chill
    Goalposts starting to look half decent now. Might be forced to get interested. Or at least rip and read 12z analysis here. TIA!
  14. Bob Chill
    Wasatch gets a special kind of snow I've never experienced anywhere else. Even in Jackson after an epic dump. Back then we called it "blower". Cold smoke was up and down the rockies. But blower gave you a literal weightless feeling. Such little resistance for the depth. Step terrain in blower snow feels like different gravity and control. If you could bottle it in little pills the whole world would be addicted.
  15. Bob Chill
    Is something going on with the drinking water in SeVa?
  16. Bob Chill
    I find your pessimism absolutely shocking and out of character. ....wait a minute... scratch that, I was thinking of someone else
  17. Bob Chill
    All of that is on the table thankfully. We don't really know what each piece will look like yet (miss or not). I'll only believe my yard is in the game for a nearly due north tracking, unblocked, and amplified coastal is after I shovel. These setups can be 99% perfect but then a random snow goose flying through at the wrong time rips an average at best goose fart and knocks the storm east of Bermuda.
  18. Bob Chill
    Even after 7 seasons in CO, my top 2 days ever skiing were both at Alta. One inbounds and one out. Colorado's snow stays in much better condition in between storm cycles but skiing at Alta during a Wasatch storm cycle is prob one of the best places in the world rip.
  19. Bob Chill
    Could be great or awful. One thing it would do is add a few days to the progression. I hate delays with progressive cold but a cutoff attacking from the south can be fun af. We'll see
  20. Bob Chill
    Out to sea solutions and southern sliders are the worst to me. I'd rather flirt with a snow to rain track then a wind track We need to watch that drag in the tail as the sw drops thru the west. With the tpv lobe running out in front it could get cutoff completely. This panel shows the risk to my eyes. Speed up the tpv/polar jet energy and the dig cuts off down south somewhere.
  21. Bob Chill
    Looks like a little more drag and it cuts off and stays behind. That could be great or epically disastrous. I'd personally prefer no cutoffs well south but the world doesn't give af about what I want
  22. Bob Chill
    Not since the storm 8 days ago Gfs made a substantial shift towards (imo) a problematic track. I'd prefer a few of those in the mix leading in. You don't want the left shoulder written off in a progressive pattern
  23. Bob Chill
    Not sure about you my friend, but there is a 100% chance of that not happening before the only thing left of me is my posts here
  24. Bob Chill
    Has any solution gone west of us yet?
  25. Bob Chill
    Jokes aside, I never doubted this window and the regulars killed identifying and dissecting the parts. My "pessimism" only stems from one thing... I've tracked at least a dozen of these volatile big storm setups with no block. They can produce big time but I fookin hate one lane highways with an amplified ripping jet whipping shit around. Off shore in this case is just the right shoulder of the one lane to success. Being in the shoulder now isn't different from being in the way. Tracking closely now is just an exercise in watching goal posts narrow with no chance at nailing anything other than pure luck (imo only) Also, of the dozen or whatever number I've tracked, very very few became a big storm that worked here. The ones that do are usually written off 3-4 times leading in. If you like tracking the goal posts narrowing, this is a great setup. If you like consistency and an "easy way" to snow, log off or don't complain.
×
×
  • Create New...