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Bob Chill

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  1. Bob Chill
    Haven't looked close so this could be bad analysis but it looked like both models are keying on a height press/hp pushing down on the top of the front. Wish it didn't have to move so far to make it interesting but cold air pressing downwards is a helluva lot better than pushing from the side
  2. Bob Chill
    Personally, I think its a mistake to ignore how the front evolves in hopes of something more promising in the mid/long range. Thing is, the way that front orients itself and moves determines the "next" event. At the same time part of the front is starting to get that "draped" look instead of a giant hill. That can work here. Sure, not much time blah blah but it's one of our ways and you can't write it off until it's figured out universally
  3. Bob Chill
    Imho... the A list names are embarrassingly horrible. So much so I might be done here with the team. Can't stand Snyder. Can't stand watching a revolving door and black cloud of losing. If I can't stand the name, I think I got forced out without a choice... Eta: my 2 personal faves are Warriors (stoopid Golden state lol) or Pilots. I really like Pilots. Then get a gun slinger QB and go straight to the SB. Eta2: if they were the Pilots they could put an F18 or Stealth on the helmets... did I just drop a mic or something? Eta3: what about the Aviators? That's bad ass too. But nope, Rear Admirals it is. Fitting I suppose
  4. Bob Chill
    Idk man, it's like the Football Team... you keep trying different things and different people and on and on but nothing is going to change until ownership does. I swear there's some quantum mechanics force that surrounds shitbag or just bad owners that continuously causes any and all efforts to turn around to fail. It's the universe telling them to go but they won't listen
  5. Bob Chill
    I'm starting to think he's actually an algorithm troll bot. Never breaks character and his schtick is tired, stale, and ineffective. Exactly as you expect from old troll bots all over the webs in need of an update
  6. Bob Chill
    I don't know why people think Ohio is such a bad place to live... wait a minute... hmm, scratch that. Was thinking of somewhere else. Carry on.
  7. Bob Chill
    The 70s pre-PDI weren't all that great here. Had some really big cold outbreaks but some real stinkers too. Couldn't buy a sledding storm for painfully long stretches (sound familiar lol). Late 70s came and change my life but then the early 80s came... rinse repeat. I can count far more winter adventures as a kid with 1-2" of snow or maybe sleet ice and slush than big dumps and weeks of snow packs. 2" of snow was at least a 2 hour delay and sleddable. I loved them then and love them now. Being picky here is bad math. ROI drops below reasons to participate.
  8. Bob Chill
    Other than strong ninas, I don't mind cold enso. Not my fave but most weak/mods pull off at least one compressed stretch of cold with chances. Some can be busy. I like having a cold Canada. Seems to be becoming more important as the years go by. 09-10 killed off part of this hobby unfortunately. Recency + the absurd nature of the storms makes everyone want a repeat. Big storm or bust attitude ever since. Nobody seems to really like our typical/avg events anymore. It gets treated like a consolation prize or criticized to death. I enjoy small events. We used to have fun with, take pics of, and celebrate car toppers here. Those days seem like another lifetime ago now.
  9. Bob Chill
    What's the deal with the genie in a bottle? Or did you guys take someone hostage and jam them in there? Is that the owner or the cabin keeping an eye on you? Chit is freaking me out man....
  10. Bob Chill
    Seems like every time the tpv or arctic front is prog'd in the mid/long range to push ESE, the actual progression is due south then slow crawl east. Always steepens the hill too much to get a good vector for snowfall. Cold angle is no doubt a real thing
  11. Bob Chill
    4 events over an inch in January is nothing to scoff at. I mean sure, all but one didn't have the oomph to push warning snowfall most places but still, 4 productive events with little blocking and fast flow? Make no mistake, that is a gift of overpefromance. You have to be able to recognize that for what it really is. Treat them all in isolation too. Every setup so far has been quirky and not repetitive other than smallish northern stream personality. That looks to continue. Keep 'em coming. Rain, whiff, mix, or shellack... doesn't matter. Fast northern stream flow is always a numbers game. ALWAYS. Until there is an actual reason other than dumb luck, it's best to stay away from big storm thoughts. In this case, big would be over 6"
  12. Bob Chill
    In my head I use angle degrees but good lord that's a tough way to describe a visual. The clock way of looking at it just popped into my head. I like it too!! Except nobody owns analog clocks anymore
  13. Bob Chill
    We don't have a handle on anything behind the front because the front itself has plenty of divergence. We'll get an 8 month break pretty quick here too.. This is winters 7th inning stretch with active shortwaves and cold Canada. Taking a break now goes against weenie dna
  14. Bob Chill
    Alignment of the entire frontal progression doesn't work here basically ever as the gfs shows. Any front aligned steeper than 8am - 2pm on a clock is cold chasing precip. Our window starts at 8am - 2pm angle without a kink in the flow. 8:30am to 2:30pm angle is where warning events start. It's a simple way to look at it but you won't find too many odds beaters inside of that rule of thumb Eta: developing your own rules of thumb goes a long ways towards developing your own thoughts different than what mid range models show. I mean sure, there could be vigorous wave run a steep boundary and snow. But if the models showed that 5 days out with a steep frontal boundary, it's time to strongly doubt model output. Just one tiny example of unlimited ways to develop your own skills beyond model TV
  15. Bob Chill
    We do but typically not on the front side of the boundary cross. Usually happens after it pushes south to NC (or wherever) and puts it in reverse. To get the front side, you can't have a steep SW-NE angle to the front. There almost always has to be some sort of "drape" so the cold air can push down vertically instead of diagonally. The more the boundary is aligned diagonally and steep, the higher the probability if cold getting in too late no matter what the mid range shows.
  16. Bob Chill
    Thing is, its only there because the arctic mass lost its legs and decided Canada is more fun. I can promise you, if -20 850e ran wall to wall above us from the GLs to Maine, there would be no shortwave drawing flow from the SW because it couldn't exist in that environment. Would be nice to get a real intrusion and let it settle instead of glancing quick movers.
  17. Bob Chill
    If the upcoming week continues the streak to morph cold domes into jagged hilly pockets of cold on the move, my interest is going to drop pretty quick. No sense analyzing the inner edge of the long range if it's just going to keep turning into the same ole same ole. Still not a shutout pattern so that's solid. But a very touchy and complicated one anyways... and that's as solid as Avanti's intelligence.
  18. Bob Chill
    At the point in time it does but that is a huge swath of SW flow in the mids and its moving east. Insitu cad at best. Need a cad setup with a feed. The only thing standing in the way is depth of cold. If northern or even arctic stream shortwaves run horizontally above us, we've got an extra layer of difficulty to overcome. We do complicated so well we shouldn't worry tho
  19. Bob Chill
    So much hinges on how the upper and mids set up after the boundary that until that is locked down, boy it gets hard to trust a single thing beyond (on any piece of guidance). I'm getting tired of the cold ROAR turning into a little meow
  20. Bob Chill
    Here's a good visual. When I started seeing the big bowl showing up and temp gradients looking like this on multiple models, I got excited. This is how we win without a block. Lots of iterations but here's how mid level temps NEED to look for a good overrunner. We had this across most guidance at the same general time. And here's the kick in the nuts 0z version of the same period.... Obvious right? Now ens are hinting ar the same bowl carve just further out in time. Might be a mirage. Seems elusive. Time will tell
  21. Bob Chill
    I don't dig back thru tons of recent runs to find trends as I'm mostly forward looking but I did spend a few minutes this AM. I won't go into detail but remember when the oranges were freezing in Jacksonville in early Feb on the models early last week? People talked suppression(briefly) and I distinctly remember @WxUSAFsaying he'd take the under. I quietly but violently agreed. Not only has the depth of cold backed waaaaay off (I know... shocking). Now the boundary is back to struggling to press and looking hilly instead of a broad carves. 0z gfs op is pointing towards a NS wave north of us after the boundary finally pushes south. Well, that f'n sux. Return flow will rot any cold air below it. That's why the 0z run had a perfect track rainer. If we can't get a big cold dome to carve and settle, we got problems because without deep cold air to fight against, our odds get really touchy.
  22. Bob Chill
    Gfs lost me after the d6-7 chance looked steamy and stinky. The swarm of shortwaves after in the west made my head hurt and the end result made it hurt worse. I'm out on anything the gfs showed thru d10
  23. Bob Chill
    The progression on the d9 deal is so convoluted I don't think it's actually possible.
  24. Bob Chill
    This run sucks. No signs of a broad cold trough. Just more quick hitting "V"s. Those won't get the job done.
  25. Bob Chill
    There's a big/deep arctic air intrusion coming into the conus. That's pretty much a lock. It will modify as it heads here but it's still a pretty big dense/cold airmass. The battleground between that and warm moist air in the deep south is kinda slow moving and just sagging down pushing on everything. Models are speeding it up. Especially the euro. Until that's resolved, no way to know how many (if any) shortwaves will run the gauntlet. Waiting game there. However, we've gotten plenty of ok events like this. The key is the orientation of the boundary. The more W-E it is, the higher the probability of multiple shortwaves running along it. The first chance starts with getting that boundary south of your house.
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