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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    I'm with you on that. We can't get storms like this one because of unfixable disadvantages... geography and latitude. They don't get ones like this very often. Insanely strong storm and cold cold powder to the coast. They are truly in the perfect spot. Plus, it snows somewhere on the planet every single day. Who cares
  2. Bob Chill
    This argument needs to die. We can call it a Miller A. Doesn't matter. For our purposes it has always looked and behaved on the ground like a Miller B does here. That's why I haven't tracked it. It's very amplified. If the trough wasn't digging so deep it would have been a Miller B screwbie with the oh primary
  3. Bob Chill
    It's a volatile setup. Any rapid developing strong low off the east coast is hard to model. Especially when it starts off as basically nothing thru the deep south. It's a tall order and many years away for a storm like this to be well handled by guidance even just 3 days out. Also, the shifts in track from a mileage standpoint is really just noise. What, 50-75 mile wobbles every 6 hours? That's really nothing and well within any reasonable margin of error for current tech. Unless it affects 50 million people and many weenies. If this storm was modeled off the coast the whole time nobody would care about a 300 mile shift. Lol
  4. Bob Chill
    Absolutely love the E-W orientation of the gradient along with blue pushing into NC. Yet another piece of data supporting a broad/cold trough with shortwaves undercutting and bumping into it as they move more horizontal instead of vertical. I love this stuff. Next best thing to a classic block/coastal setup. The way to get a big storm is a 1-2 punch or just having something really elongated and aiming a hose at us for 24-36 hours. No CCB or "violence". Just steady mod snow for hours with light winds. Sounds terrible right? Lol. If a big storm were to happen in the next 2 weeks, that's the way.
  5. Bob Chill
    Euro doesn't have a shortwave like the gfs in Cali but how could it? Lol. Just give us the big bowl for 2 weeks. Shortwaves will b there for it.
  6. Bob Chill
    Good stuff man. I'm at the point in this game where the type of potential storm determines my desire to get involved. I'm 100% done wasting time on low probability stuff. If that's all there is, I just don't have it in me anymore. ROI is awful. On the flip side, I have pent up desire to watch something from longer leads. So for now, I'll monitoring ens means in the 7-10 day range literally for the first time this year.
  7. Bob Chill
    That's a really tuff question... not sure. I recommend starting a thread asking if another thread should be started.
  8. Bob Chill
    It's just an op run but when you loop h5 vort panels from 174 to the end, it's a pattern on a loop. Other than everything, nothing can go wrong. Until something goes wrong, I'm in on this long track now
  9. Bob Chill
    On the 12z gfs, the setup is obvious by 174. Looked like a solid winter storm on the way for the east. Big precip field as expected. So far this year, I haven't been close to as interested as I am now. Gfs may or may not have the right shortwave to grow but it doesn't matter. Give us that upper level setup, let it spin and wobble for 10-14 days, and the odds of a region wide warning event with cold temps is as good as it gets without classic blocking.
  10. Bob Chill
    Honestly, this is what I've personally been waiting for. Not volatile fast movers with vertical approach vectors. Narrow stripes annoy the F out of me. From an odds and activity standpoint, I absolutely love where models are taking us after the brief warm break. Lot of time to kill tho....
  11. Bob Chill
    It's in San Diego at 186. Check out that broad bowl trough too. These setups create decent size precip fields when they energize.
  12. Bob Chill
    People can laugh at you all they want. My life changed once I started being really really nice to wx models. In the heart nice. Can't fake it. Once I did that the MoCo deathband was reborn. People can say whatever they want but they all know my yard jacked in the burbs multiple times for no apparent reasons. Most evident with Jan 2016. Yea, keep thinking that's a coincidence. One day everyone will see the light.
  13. Bob Chill
    Come on dude. Way too early for that. Go time after 12z today tho. Maybe put in a reservation for a pin and we'll go from there
  14. Bob Chill
    Been thinking the same thing. Way too far out to care much about details for me so the storm itself isn't worth discussing but the fact that both op and ens are showing an active (legit) gradient pattern is noteworthy. We've seen the look on ens a few times but ops always looked different and by the time the broad trough period moved forward into the mid range, it was just regular progressive quick ridge/troughs and not a big "bowl carve". This upcoming window (imo) is starting to really grab my attention. We do best with "broad bowls" with a dome of heavy cold air sprawling north of us. Eta: when I say "we do best" I mean snow comes the easiest. Not the biggest potential or high end storms. That's been off the table all year pretty much in the east. Eta2: this post ties back to my thoughts on available storm vectors. The Fri deal is literally a single lucky one lane vector. I never liked it once as I really do hate those setups. Not worth the time like 95% of the time. Broad bowls open up all of our good vectors of approach. Every single one. And the longer it repeats, odds get really good.
  15. Bob Chill
    Holy f you're right... it's hard to accept something can be that bad but alas, gfs has pulled it off
  16. Bob Chill
    Ji's fave model progression when a new suite comes out... encouragement from multiple models followed by a steaming pile when it counts the most
  17. Bob Chill
    Damn dude. No more pornhub? Oof
  18. Bob Chill
    Verification is on a global scale and the spread is pretty tight. It's been long speculated that different globals are better than each other at different things. Depends on near infinite variables so broad brush verification scores don't really tell us much. Especially when talking about a 50 mile difference in storm track or whatever
  19. Bob Chill
    I'd like to see the eps qpf panels with the light snow event only and not the coastal. It may have come west but my yard is banking on pregame show
  20. Bob Chill
    Not exactly. It's a dance. How far the upper energy slides south is tricky. The pieces dance together more than push each other around. We want lift overhead at the same time the developing low is pushing moisture into it. Left to its own devices, the arctic energy is going to be super light. Not juicy at all. Throw some ocean moisture west or northwest into the lift and it becomes an "event"
  21. Bob Chill
    It's an unusual setup. Conventional thinking makes it look like waa precip on the north side of a developing low but that's not it so it's going to behave different @WxUSAF crushed it with his earlier post. We have lift overhead and a good column for quality snow. Arctic energy is notoriously dry. But the sharp trough and backing flow downstream could juice it up. Wait and see for me. Not sure that piece can be dialed in until the early coastal development is locked in
  22. Bob Chill
    Models are converging on a climo type outcome. A bit disappointing but no surprise. Still time blah blah blah but these setups have a long history here. If 12z euro slides east with the coastal snow I'm dropping hopes of coastal love in my yard. Kinda hard to get upset at the most common outcome being portrayed
  23. Bob Chill
    The whole argument is stupid af. LWX uses the term "model trends" all the Fn time. Why is this even being debated? Who are these people? I swear there's contaminated drinking water somewhere. I think cockumblockuminfection should call 936-1212 and argue with wx53 about it
  24. Bob Chill
    The storm personality has changed quite a bit the last 3 days. It's still northern stream dominant but digs really deep and ignites the low pretty far south off the coast. That's new and why everyone is excited. Before it was a typical northern stream shortwave that sets things off too far north for us. Common in Nina's. This storm is on the rare side as is
  25. Bob Chill
    For the type of setup, this one is trying hard af to hit on all cylinders. It could become the new "remember that unblocked northern stream phased luck bomb in 2022?" every time another pops up. Jan 2000 has been beat to death anyway
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