Bob Chill

We both appear to strongly believe in winter "personalities" when they show up. They can have their way and override any and every conventional thought. They can render blocks useless or turn a marginal pattern into a snow parade. It's important not to let recency bias cloud your head. Last year was last year. Last time I've seen anything like what guidance is showing now is the 6 week period from 2/14 - 3/31 back in 2015. Not every winter has a personality. Especially a strong one. Last year's personality fought us tooth and nail door to door in the face of decent longwave looks. This winter appears to have shown its hand. 3 for 3 in two weeks happens like never in my yard. That's meaningful and beyond dumb luck imo. I'm riding the it wants to snow this year personality until it's over. Me thinks it's going to be a while yet...

Ops are showing us that it's active, fast flow, and cold around. The time to jump on a solution is when everything downstream is out of the way and ops can focus on the same shortwave. Last few days had some seemingly similar solutions but the snow came from different digital shortwaves. Once 2 ops show snow the same way from the same shortwave, it's tracking time. Unfortunately it's prob not going to happen outside of 4 day or so leads

I really like what I see down the line. Continental cold air factory appears to run unabated thru early Feb at least. We don't want a big hilly amplified pattern either. I saw some people posting ens mean maps like this a week ago and my first thought was cold/dry and not snow. IF ens means have it right, the PNA ridge is going to retrograde and turn the entire conus into a more broad/zonal trough with cold air wall to wall in Canada. With Feb wavelengths shortening and cold domes pushing hard against it, storm track could run WSW-ENE from the middle of the conus easterward I'm using the gefs for visual reference only. All ensembles have their own version. If we start getting attacked by shortwaves approaching from the WSW, I'm going to get pretty excited. I don't like tracking big amplified storms running uphill nearly due north on approach. Too much can go wrong and volatility wreaks havoc. I like highway style storms that elongate and run along tracks more W-E than S-N. Hard to get a hecs that way but it makes it really easy to get 4-8" of all snow and no temp worries

Dude, that's all you need to know. This is a short/mid range game and it looks "stable" which is kinda an oxymoron because progressive and stable don't jibe but 2014 and 15 had these periods of tracks getting laid down then traffic riding them. Precip shields were all small stripes. But the tracks were aimed at us enough we kept hitting. Time will tell, but this already has that feel. Hit a few more events of any size really and it's practically identical imo

I missed this yesterday and it is a very serious concern and the #1 reason I've been skeptical of getting a property off the info highway. I've done a lot of homework about the future of broadband. For what I do, I have to have a minimum 500mbs connection and it HAS to be stable. I won't go into the long story but I am now very confident my minimum requirements will be attainable everywhere I want to go within 6-8 years tops. I'd move early with the prospect of a stable connection being a near guaranty. Times a changin. We can thank covid and the work from surge for putting the iron in the fire for complete high speed connectivity anywhere. I'd be willing to pony up the cash for hard connection but have no fear of what's coming up in the airwaves

I liked this post too much to leave it just in the LR thread lol

If this late week deal doesn't remind you of how we scored bread and butter in JF 2014 or FM 2015.... you didnt live here or you were down in Avanti's basement eating cheetos

I've been suspecting it but now I'm growing convinced Dak doesn't have the hardwired mental wherewithal to win in a pressure cooker. There are a lot of cases of VERY capable QBs who simply brain fart when it matters most. Cousins is like that. I thought it might just be living in redskin hell but MN didn't fix it. I can go on and on with examples. Complete opposite of the laser focused gunslingers like Rodgers or Brady or (insert many great names) who can back into the playoffs and take over and carry entire teams. What does this mean? It means I'm a big Dak fan because as long as he's in charge, cowboys ain't going too far when it matters most.

I'm going to be sappy here just for one second.... dude, seeing your yard near the top for close suburban snowfall IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER AFTER MULTIPLE EVENTS is a straight up treat. Seriously. All that said... GTF off my lawn and stop stealing my snow or I'm bringing the bobcat and trailer in the middle of the night. Just like I was going to do to wnwxluvr back in 2012-13. I never should have turned around and went home at Front Royal that night... Still regret it.

Otoh... I only jump into this game when it's ripe now. When you see my stupid avatar popping up you don't need models for the mid range. When I go totally dark and you still look at ops... I can't help that

Don't know 'bout y'alls but I'm starting to grow tired of weekly snowstorms. We need to bump that up to 2. Thanks NAM!

At this particular range it matters more than usual. The control starts off with identical data as the op and runs at Ensemble resolution. Inside of 6 days or so, the control can be more accurate than the op... caveat.... at times... Is this one of those times? Beep bop boop don't know. However, it should absolutely not disregarded because it's "the control". All good data matters

He was talking about our hopes and dreams.

Hit 3". Perfect. Enjoyable storm. Considering the flaws it performed well. This winter has a habit of that lately.

2.5" and 25F. This is becoming one of my favorite mixed events. 3"+ lookin easy. I was nice to wx models and ma nature all week too.

I can corroborate heavy yellow snow around my lamppost at the end of my driveway

Once my weenie conceded to a sleet bomb, I ended up loving that storm. Top spot for yard glacier events. The next one down isn't in the same universe.

Man it's kinda dumping. Legit cold smoke. What a gift

Yea, I haven't liked the sleet progression on this one for 4 days. Lol. DC proper about to get smizzidysmizzoked

Prob both. Snow NW and sleet SE.The battleground usually has the heaviest snow.

Looks like sleet starting to show on CC north of RIC on lwx radar. Dox radar shows it from Cambridge to Solomons. The fight will be on soon.

DOX CC looks like the sleet line runs from Cambridge west to Cove Point.

2003 2010 2016....its time As long as continental airmasses keep dropping down from Canada and the trough axis keeps wobbling back and forth to the east and west of us, it's possible to get a big storm. The ingredients are constantly flying around near each other. If they are going to line up, ops will figure it out D4 or less. Beyond that is all shotgun blasts from guidance. I'm a big believer in streaks or compressed favorable periods around here. There's def some truth to "it just wants to snow" when we get hot. Enso and any other thing doesn't seem to matter at that point. Sure looks like that's what's going on this year. How long it lasts is anyone's guess. Mine is thru the first week of Feb minimum.

A big storm is suspect with the general upper level pattern. It can happen but only when hitting on all cylinders (like Feb 2014). Euro/cmc have shown a path but there's no way they could lock into that this far out in a progressive patten. I know you know this up and down. But there are still plentiful peeps here who expect ops to lock into any and every big storm from a week out. It can easily snow next weekend but prob not the way the euro/cmc are showing. Any shortwave passing 1-2 days or more after a front can be something... or nothing.... Still feel pretty strongly that any event thru this month will be modest if we get another. Like 6-10" tops or something like that but 3-6/4-8 type totals fit the upper levels from what I see.