Bob Chill

When the fighting over digital snow is over, the event will be over and people will be like "ah man! Missed it!"

EPS or GEFS are prob best left undiscussed this close in. I'm not sure if there's any value with a low res ens spread when mesos and ops all look mostly the same. Not saying the maps shouldn't be posted. Just that there really isn't much to be gained from them at this point

It's the fabled "blue ball pattern". Hasn't been seen since the last ice age. Caveman weenies were off the rails last time it happened. They found snowmaps carved into cave walls during a dig

This hobby is the anti-thesis of free time efficiency. That's the core reason I backed off. I was spending a disproportionate amount of time doing something pretty much unproductive. My time has become more valuable than a d5+ storm on an op. I only start doing the analysis thing inside of 72 hours. I barely looked at models yesterday too. I just popped in here from time to time to make sure it was still on the table. Yesterday's model runs don't mean jack squat today anyways

The only thing I really care about is not having to deal with the ragged jagged precip shield and never getting any good lift overhead. The one thing that's keeping my confidence in a couple inches at least is the shortwave isn't dry. It's loaded up with pac moisture streaming from the jet from the pac nw thru the central rockies and into the TN Valley. Often these shortwaves have only moisture from Canada and can't tap anything. Those are tough on the nerves. I may end up in a relative min but I don't think it will be less than 2" (famous last words)

Exactly. Expectations for models are at an all time high but we're still many years away from the level of detail and accuracy that many want put faith in today. Like you, I just create a data equation in my head with weighting on what I think makes the most sense, then double check previous similar events to get a handle on boom/bust for my specific yard. Even doing this for what... 25 years (15 intensely for me), the element of surprise in any direction is always present. I suppose that's what makes it so fun... and maddening... and evil... all at the same time

Globals are too broad brush for narrowly defined sensible wx in the short range. Euro has the resolution but it's still a global. OTOH- mesos try to be "too accurate" with exact placement of subtle variations of qpf/bands etc. I know you know this but just reminding everyone that all decent models are useful in the short range but no one model is deadly. Just blend and apply climo. Rarely fails.

Hrrr could be right. Looks just like a typical outcome for this kind of deal. At least it's kinda juicy leading in. Sometimes these shortwaves are dry AF to our SW and we wait for radar to "blossom"... my least favorite activity with NS systems. Thing is, these types of storms, no matter how many models show otherwise, have the potential to do exactly what the hrrr shows in real time. I have a good memory. And they aren't good memories for my yard. I'm not a deb, neg Nance, or wet blanket. If we really respect this hobby as a learning experience, accepting the possibility of the hrrr solution should be second nature. I can easily see "the middle" getting over 4" or just 1". Won't know until it's over

That's why I like kuchera. Comparison to the mundane 10:1 can provide some really good insight into a lot of small details that affect our ratios. Any time kuchera is over 10:1, it's a very useful indication of good snow growth, good column, and good surface. You need all 3 to exceed 10:1 here usually. When kuchera has high totals but surface is running the razor edge with temps, I'll toss it. Same with some sort of warm nose anywhere near the DGZ. High ratio killer even if kuchera says don't worry. Like all wx model output, useful tools galore but if you don't understand how to properly use them, being useful flips to harmful with decision making.

If someone doesn't hug the model with the most snow while waiting impatiently for a better one, I simply can't trust them.

GFS handles northern stream the best so it must be a lock. Boom.

Just got a text alert from LWX issuing a bitter weenie storm warning and I was like Wut? So I popped in here and was pretty obvious why.

The one thing that typically annoys TF out of me with these shortwaves is radar usually looks killer to the west leading in. Then wxwxluvr has 2" of snow b4 I get a flake. The precip moves into my area and it's all ragged and jagged. You're get mod snow during this time. Then your's shuts off with a respectable total and the SE kicks in while I get table scraps. I always expect the lowest qpf on these deals. Keeps me grounded

Unfortunately, this is how these storms often break for my yard so pretty reasonable outcome. You generally always do better in da burg thanjust west of 95 burbs. Every once in a blue the enhanced stripe to the east helps me out but more often than not... outside looking in with best totals on these deals

That's not correct. With storms that have temp problems, Kuchera is the lowest. Sometimes by several magnitudes. Kuchera uses modeled ratios and ground/air temps in the calculation. It's useful. Very. If you use it right and not just rip and read Eta: this storm has all the ingredients for 10:1+. Our area usually maxes at 15:1 no matter what the models say. But in this case, the column is solid top to bottom and we're exclusively on the cold side of the storm (for now). It's completely reasonable in this case to assume a minimum of 10:1. How much qpf falls is a different disco

Yes, there's a very well studied reason. Heather Archambault did the initial research IIRC. You'll here the term "Archambault Event" around the forum. By simplist definition it's a big east coast storm that occurs during an NAO phase change. Our area likes it when the NAO goes from neg to neutral (or positive)

I think perspective is important for expectations here. Yesterday was a VERY vigorous shortwave. I mean look at that thing. Going neg exactly where we want it. Upper levels were very dynamic. A lot to like right there for potential good snowfall. This is Fri's: If you focus just on surface maps you'd think this storm is similar because of the track and accum snow. But are they similar where it really counts? Not even close imo. We don't know exactly how the shortwave is going to look yet. Could easily be sharper/stronger. But it won't be nearly as vigorous as the one that just went thru. For that reason alone, reasonable expectations should be front and center but I kinda doubt they will be. Lol

Anecdotal evidence but strongly agree and have thought the same thing for at least 8-10 years. Hot hands rotate. We see it every winter. Gfs does ok in the mid range with northern stream shortwaves. Often the first model to pick up on one with potential. Euro does a nice job with pure southern stream waves in the mid range most of the time. Other than that, it's best to keep an open mind and apply your yard climo and what usually happens with a similar setup. Personally, I stick to the euro/gfs combo and just blend them with my yard climo. Works well for mid range thoughts. Thing is, we're focusing on an acre of land with a model that covers every acre on the planet. What we often think are huge shifts really aren't. Some are absolutely miniscule but the sensible effect is huge. This often results in unfair criticism but that's a whole nuther barrel of worms.

Could be. Always hard to say. A lot of complicated stuff happens quickly (and closely) with these systems. It's why they are known to bust in the short range because our latitude is just south of where the coastal can dump. Not saying I think this is what will happen but through history, these storms love to paint 2 stripes of ok snow west and east (winterwxluvr and CAPE) and not much in-between. Wnwxluvr will be reporting mod snow for a few hours with 2-3" piling up quick but it doesn't "extrapolate" eastward. It collapses and re-ignites. I think most will get accum snow but heady expectations may steal the fun for some

It's a fast mover and much drier leading in than yesterday's. Progressive middle of the road NS shortwaves that never go negative or close off until N of our latitude almost always have a modest ceiling and a widespread warning event is usually above that ceiling. This storm is more on the dynamics side and less on the easier to predict moisture transport side. Tricky. These types of shortwave love to have a "middle finger" somewhere just north of where the low jumps from land to water... my yard has been in that middle finger more than I want to admit...

Just under 6" for my yard. Sucks I was so busy earlier. Didn't get to enjoy much after 9am but super fun storm no matter. Our weeping cherry turned into a snowbrella lol https://imgur.com/a/4RrfPcd Eta: Not sure why image isn't embedding. No biggie. Tons of better eye candy itt already

Idk man. I get plenty of rain every single winter like clockwork. Usually 10" or more. Practically every single year. Sometimes they are dry and I get 7" of rain during met winter. Never embarrassingly low totals or not totals at all tho. Snow? Give me cold on the balance and I'll never complain.

Hypothetically, the storm would have a much larger precip shield that today's and won't scoot eastward at our latitude. So the potential for a larger storm geographically exists. However, as of right now, the shortwave is not modeled to be nearly as vigorous as the current where it counts in the MS Valley. That would imply lower qpf maxes in general compared today. None of this matters though. We have no idea what the shortwave will look like as it rounds the base of the trough. That makes or breaks everything.

Yep, and it was like 80 degrees close to Xmas iirc. Lol. I haven't paid close attention to anything this year and only got interested when ens all agreed that the upper levels where it counts showed legit cold air delivery for the east. Then my next thought was "this sure reminds me of how things looked during JFM 14&15. Me and winterwxluvr constantly do the lite beer tastes great less filling thing. For my yard, no cold is no snow. Normal temps are in the 40s at their coldest for me. Without real cold air around I get F'd consistently. I always root for a cold pattern first before giving a crap about precip. Well, looks like an OK cold pattern + active storm track is on the way. Some of my biggest yard problems are going away for a time. All about storm track now and we all know a progressive -EPO/WAR pattern makes models look clueless if you track 50 mile shifts like a rabid dodig. In the upcoming pattern, if you're not expecting ops to jump all over in the mid range, you haven't been doing this long enough yet.

Damn. Right on time with the Euro. 72-96 hours too. Close to the range where the general idea locks in. Perfect.