Bob Chill

18z gfs agrees. But it also says there's an ice storm coming in 6 hours so prob best to never trust it again for any reason whatsoever.

I'm sure this was discussed but I just looked at the 18z gfs. Lol. Wtf. That's a bit absurd for a top 5 global wx model

I slantsticked my typing. Lol. 1.6" is the right amt. It's really unusual out there. My grass is almost covered in the back and it looks like snow. But you can walk of top of it and not leave footprints at all. I suppose feb 07 was just like that at some point. Legit concrete glacier.

One of the biggest sources of legit stress and anxiety for many people is fretting things you have zero control over. To me it makes no sense to waste time/energy/emotions because weather didnt weather right. Or anything I have no control over. I just make the best of it and move on. Life is complicated enough without adding bad days because my digital snow got stolen. Lol I didnt want to rock the boat last night but when MN posted the IAD sounding I quickly accepted all sleet is much more likely than good snow. Def wont be the first or last. Thing is, the exact same setup could hit next week and it would be all snow. Then again a week later and be all rain.

Sounds ridiculous typing this but I'm actually glad (in some ways) that the snow didnt work out. Snow is very distracting and was busy af until just now. Barely looked out the window after 10am. I did measure 1.8 of whatever it was. What a dud of a winter in the close burbs. We'd have been better off with a nina SER door to door

2013-15 borrowed a lot of our future luck and here we are.

Razor edge storms break sleetier in my yard far more often than the other way around. I was hopeful to get 2-4 before the flip but ground truth did what it usually does

Some of the lowest viz sleet in years. At least we got that

Simple really. Sleet covers everything white, has legit staying power if it stays cold, and I sill get to watch tv at night and not freeze

Do or die for our yards from 9 to noon. Warm layer is still thin/weak. Unsure if rates will overcome but seeing some clumps of snow fall under the little yellow dot 15 mins ago says we have a chance.

White asteroids starting to not leave contrails in their supersonic descent. Warm layer isnt stout. For now at least Eta: added "not" so post makes sense

White asteroids mixing in. Wasnt surprised to start as sleet in my yard. Unfortunate but no surprise. Lets see if the warm nose can mix out as the juicies come in.

Tracker still hasnt turned on the half mile long post limit. The one above covers 2 time zones

Plenty of time for it to juice up and drop 6-10.

Nothing brings out the nuts like a big heaping pile of sleet. Banter needs a moderator or something. Always remember this though. Today is the tomorrow that you worried about yesterday

Since we're in the really short range so the hrrr should get the majority if not all the weight from here in. Unless it gets worse at 4z.

Imo- models have already set the boundaries and they cant replicate exact weather. Especially with riding such a tightrope with ptypes. Models arent all over the place either. There is a common theme through all guidance with the only big question being a razor thin ptype situation for most. Real time will tell the story there. Qpf amounts are close enough across all the models. Instead of hanging on model runs that wiggle back and forth, just imagine how your yard does with these events and be honest lol. You're probably right. The warm nose/layer before noon is pretty thin. It's also barely above freezing. 1 degree one way or the other is make or break snow/sleet. I'm in chips fall mode. A case can be made for more snow/less sleet and vice versa. We'll see soon enough

Well, then make it not sleet then.

That's what makes this a great event imo. Potentially 1" liquid and little to no zr. And sub freezing surface for all. Good times

I get venting a little but there is out of control chronic diarrhea posting. Nobody wants to read that stuff... over and over and over. Stfu already

Some people in the storm thread need their keyboards foreclosed on.

This place sucks the day before any event except for a once in a 10 year blizzard.

White asteroids probably. If the dendrites are big they'll clump up before hitting cold air again. Marginal sleet sounding. Like 1 degree above freezing tops? Warm layer is thin too.

Looks like yet another storm that ends up fitting the climo mold. It's mind blowing how this keeps happening. Sorcery. Lol. I usually do ok in these setups. Looking forward to whatever happens. Biggest fear (huge qpf bust) is off the table. And everyone is already below freezing.

This should answer all your questions. Soundings are ELI5'd all over the web. Lets keep that stuff out of here https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/skewt_samples#:~:text=As snow falls into the,A typical "Sleet" sounding.