Bob Chill

Do or die for our yards from 9 to noon. Warm layer is still thin/weak. Unsure if rates will overcome but seeing some clumps of snow fall under the little yellow dot 15 mins ago says we have a chance.

White asteroids starting to not leave contrails in their supersonic descent. Warm layer isnt stout. For now at least Eta: added "not" so post makes sense

White asteroids mixing in. Wasnt surprised to start as sleet in my yard. Unfortunate but no surprise. Lets see if the warm nose can mix out as the juicies come in.

Tracker still hasnt turned on the half mile long post limit. The one above covers 2 time zones

Plenty of time for it to juice up and drop 6-10.

Nothing brings out the nuts like a big heaping pile of sleet. Banter needs a moderator or something. Always remember this though. Today is the tomorrow that you worried about yesterday

Since we're in the really short range so the hrrr should get the majority if not all the weight from here in. Unless it gets worse at 4z.

Imo- models have already set the boundaries and they cant replicate exact weather. Especially with riding such a tightrope with ptypes. Models arent all over the place either. There is a common theme through all guidance with the only big question being a razor thin ptype situation for most. Real time will tell the story there. Qpf amounts are close enough across all the models. Instead of hanging on model runs that wiggle back and forth, just imagine how your yard does with these events and be honest lol. You're probably right. The warm nose/layer before noon is pretty thin. It's also barely above freezing. 1 degree one way or the other is make or break snow/sleet. I'm in chips fall mode. A case can be made for more snow/less sleet and vice versa. We'll see soon enough

Well, then make it not sleet then.

That's what makes this a great event imo. Potentially 1" liquid and little to no zr. And sub freezing surface for all. Good times

I get venting a little but there is out of control chronic diarrhea posting. Nobody wants to read that stuff... over and over and over. Stfu already

Some people in the storm thread need their keyboards foreclosed on.

This place sucks the day before any event except for a once in a 10 year blizzard.

White asteroids probably. If the dendrites are big they'll clump up before hitting cold air again. Marginal sleet sounding. Like 1 degree above freezing tops? Warm layer is thin too.

Looks like yet another storm that ends up fitting the climo mold. It's mind blowing how this keeps happening. Sorcery. Lol. I usually do ok in these setups. Looking forward to whatever happens. Biggest fear (huge qpf bust) is off the table. And everyone is already below freezing.

This should answer all your questions. Soundings are ELI5'd all over the web. Lets keep that stuff out of here https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/skewt_samples#:~:text=As snow falls into the,A typical "Sleet" sounding.

HRRR is showing thunder snow and sleet. IR satellite shows the high cloud tops associated with it (I'm kidding but maybe not. Full weenie mode tonight)

I like the insurance policy on frozen precipitation. ZR isnt happening. So even if I only get .10 as snow, I'll get another .6-.8 as sleet. And it's going to pound at times. I have little concern with this storm. Gulf lows are easier on the nerves in general too

Sleet warm layer is higher up. Typically between 700-800mbs. 850s going above 0c often happens after the flip has already happened. Used to piss me off too because I used to use 850 0c line for judging when I would flip and it always happened sooner.

My first and only call for my area is 3-4" of snow and a bunch of sleet. Once it shuts off I'm thinking 5" total of frozen stuff. Sleet will pummel and compact for sure. My plan is to measure snow at the beginning of the flip, clear the table, then measure sleet. Roads will be the worst they've been since Jan 16. Jan 19 was 11" in my yard but iirc the roads were fine. Not to mention snow distribution was all over the place so road impacts varied by the mile. Tomorrow will be a different story.

It may have been feb 2015. Those 2 febs are blended together in my mind like a corrupt hard drive. So similar at times it was uncanny. Even though the pattern in both feb 14&15 was not ideal at all, our area could not have maximized it any better. Prob once in a lifetime pattern/snow. I wont root for a raging +ao/nao ever. But man, some fond fond memories of that stretch. I remember literally getting sick and tired of tracking in mid Mar 2014. First and last for me. Lol

Def could have been 2015. Makes sense coming in a week after the VDay supersquall. We tracked fails all season up until that arctic front. The storm was so unconventional we didnt take it as serious as we usually do iirc

It was a single storm iirc and was on the tail of a snow heater in that wild progressive pattern. None of us really drilled down on it leading in. We were kinda burned out from other storms and this one had literally no high pressure to our north. All return flow from the arctic high sliding off the coast. 99.9% of those storms would be a mix and mess everywhere at best. It was such a legit airmass we capitalized when we really shouldnt have. Thats as much as this old guy can remember

Agree. My yard has been through a number of these dicy ptype storms. Nearly every single on flipped right on time or sooner. I cant remember the specific dates but the only times I've been surprised with more snow and less sleet than expected were a couple heavy dumpers. Of course the greatest reverse sleet bust of all time (imo only) was in Feb 2014 when a west track primary was all snow with a hp out in the atlantic just pumping southerlies in the mids. I think I got like 7" all snow with just a touch of sleet and drizzle on the tail. @WinterWxLuvr loved that storm. So did Ji if you can believe it

I just cut the old gfs' throat. It wont be bothering us anymore