Jump to content

Bob Chill

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    36,393

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    Is something going on with the drinking water in SeVa?
  2. Bob Chill
    I find your pessimism absolutely shocking and out of character. ....wait a minute... scratch that, I was thinking of someone else
  3. Bob Chill
    All of that is on the table thankfully. We don't really know what each piece will look like yet (miss or not). I'll only believe my yard is in the game for a nearly due north tracking, unblocked, and amplified coastal is after I shovel. These setups can be 99% perfect but then a random snow goose flying through at the wrong time rips an average at best goose fart and knocks the storm east of Bermuda.
  4. Bob Chill
    Even after 7 seasons in CO, my top 2 days ever skiing were both at Alta. One inbounds and one out. Colorado's snow stays in much better condition in between storm cycles but skiing at Alta during a Wasatch storm cycle is prob one of the best places in the world rip.
  5. Bob Chill
    Could be great or awful. One thing it would do is add a few days to the progression. I hate delays with progressive cold but a cutoff attacking from the south can be fun af. We'll see
  6. Bob Chill
    Out to sea solutions and southern sliders are the worst to me. I'd rather flirt with a snow to rain track then a wind track We need to watch that drag in the tail as the sw drops thru the west. With the tpv lobe running out in front it could get cutoff completely. This panel shows the risk to my eyes. Speed up the tpv/polar jet energy and the dig cuts off down south somewhere.
  7. Bob Chill
    Looks like a little more drag and it cuts off and stays behind. That could be great or epically disastrous. I'd personally prefer no cutoffs well south but the world doesn't give af about what I want
  8. Bob Chill
    Not since the storm 8 days ago Gfs made a substantial shift towards (imo) a problematic track. I'd prefer a few of those in the mix leading in. You don't want the left shoulder written off in a progressive pattern
  9. Bob Chill
    Not sure about you my friend, but there is a 100% chance of that not happening before the only thing left of me is my posts here
  10. Bob Chill
    Has any solution gone west of us yet?
  11. Bob Chill
    Jokes aside, I never doubted this window and the regulars killed identifying and dissecting the parts. My "pessimism" only stems from one thing... I've tracked at least a dozen of these volatile big storm setups with no block. They can produce big time but I fookin hate one lane highways with an amplified ripping jet whipping shit around. Off shore in this case is just the right shoulder of the one lane to success. Being in the shoulder now isn't different from being in the way. Tracking closely now is just an exercise in watching goal posts narrow with no chance at nailing anything other than pure luck (imo only) Also, of the dozen or whatever number I've tracked, very very few became a big storm that worked here. The ones that do are usually written off 3-4 times leading in. If you like tracking the goal posts narrowing, this is a great setup. If you like consistency and an "easy way" to snow, log off or don't complain.
  12. Bob Chill
    Having fun yet tracking steep hills in a progressive pattern at pretty long leads? I'm having a hard time deciding between tracking this event or contracting chlamydia. Brb
  13. Bob Chill
    Would be nice if we could actually get a real HP in a more classic spot with one of these waves. Don't need a big block (would be nice lol) but strong closed lows to our south are warm air vacuums. Euro is a nice storm but awful setup for a cold feed on top. Just a simple banana or even pickle shaped 1030 sliding across our noggins as precip approaches would work.
  14. Bob Chill
    This is a jacked up year. I haven't watched nearly as close as others but it seems like ops have been leading ensembles for a month. Backwards AF lol
  15. Bob Chill
    Some sort of wrapped up storm in general has been showing consistently for 3+ days now. Personally, I hate tracking these events. So much happens in such a short time with development and then add 6 days to the lead and... well... ummm... this thread is going to be disastrous daily. If you don't like nerve pain, tooth aches, slipped discs, 3rd degree burns, and a couple random STDs.... I'd stay the F away. Throw away your reading glasses and cancel your internet. Thank me later.
  16. Bob Chill
    40'+ waves. The ghost of Andrea Gail.
  17. Bob Chill
    Gfs solution doesn't even have a headline invented yet. Blizzard warning wouldn't do it. Check out the 925mb winds. Lol. Hehe
  18. Bob Chill
    Trend or reversion? Lol. We no doubt have a luck budget here. No idea how to calculate it but it's a real thing
  19. Bob Chill
    Well, after going 3 for 3 and feeling cocky, I was quickly reminded that we are who we thought we were. Models busting low on temps by more than 5 degrees last night was the cannon across the bow. No biggie. I was never really into this one. Anafronts with well above freezing after midnight have a tough path to win
  20. Bob Chill
    Exactly. I mean sure, -pna is not favored here. Never has never will. Not all pnas are equally bad. As long as the western half of Canada keeps the -epo cold factory intact, we're always just a front or 2 away from snow temps. Seen far worse in recent years. That's for sure. Lol
  21. Bob Chill
    La ninas tend to make a come back late Feb through mid march. March 2001 redux coming Weird year right? A flip to an annoying -pna makes a lot of sense unfortunately. The west got straight blitzed with a storm cycle to close the year then mostly ridge/dry since. Time for that to change. Doesn't mean we roast. No idea. But a trough returning in the west for a time seems highly likely to my gut. Then, like you said, maybe another busy cold period. A -pna in Feb isn't always bad anyways. Depends on how the wavelengths set up. Canada remains good for manufacturing cold air in general. A -pna in that environment is far from the same when then pac jet goes zonal. That's a shutout
  22. Bob Chill
    Agree with you. Anytime we have a broad conus trough with cold highs sliding by to our north, we're in the game. I actually prefer broad troughs except for big dogs. Opens the door for a wide range of vectors that can hit us. Big steep troughs/ridges only provide a 1 lane highway. I like 270 + the commuter lanes pointed at my yard
  23. Bob Chill
    No problem at all. Always keep in mind, no matter what any model shows IRT a storm, if the run is showing something that rarely if ever happens in your yard, go with your climo. This was my mental breakthrough some years back. Topography, geography, and latitude are powerful drivers in our area. That's why storms often break the same way over and over in your yard. Don't expect a different outcome to come frequently or easy
  24. Bob Chill
    They didn't really miss anything. Had a hard time resolving multiple shortwave in fast flow out in time just like they always do. This stuff cuts both ways. Sometimes storms go poof and other times they go pop. Whenever we are in a busy NS pattern, you simply can't trust or feel confident in anything beyond 72 hours. Models did an excellent job honing in. Just wasn't the result most hoped for
  25. Bob Chill
    I wish it was that black and white. Overall, on the balance, gfs is pretty good with NS driven patterns. However, gfs has been upgraded pretty recently and it takes a while to figure out strengths and weaknesses. I've thought the new gfs was pretty good when it was the FV3 or whatever it was called. Ran too cold but did well in mid range. The atmosphere is nearly infinitely complex when it comes to turning math into a simulation. No one model is ever even close to being "the one". That's where the fun of this hobby comes from. In the midrange, all models are wrong. How and what is wrong is up to the interpreter.
×
×
  • Create New...