Bob Chill

Ops have been really consistent. Minor shifts and the same general idea locked in for a couple days now. IMHO- ops have lead the way here this time.

Climo and antecedent airmass pretty much yells standard thump to slot based on all guidance. We don't get many overhead tracks in real time. Anything is always possible of course. Just playing the odds would be a good heavy thump, mix, slot, drip, refreeze. Lol

More importantly, because of climo and topography, that area is simply further S and often in the crosshairs of the WAA of a developing cyclone. Circulation hasn't destroyed the column nearly as much during onset/heavies as it will when the storm reaches DC latitude. Thumps to rain for DC often have SWVA jack.

It is frustrating really. It's just a little hallway of weakness to the north/nw on approach. But since it creates that hallway, it doesn't matter much how good looks or where it's located as it turns northward. The whole trip north the upper and surface lows are gunning for that hallway

A really good way to use the 12k nam is to just compare h5 anomaly vort panels at hr48. If it looks a little better, the nam's primary usefulness in the mid range is over with how I look at this game. NAM is way too prone to do NAM things beyond hr48 IME but changes thru 48 are important for sure

I can't speak for everybody but I can 100% guaranty there isn't a single bunny or any other rodent or stray pet in my yard after snow flips to something else. You guys may think I'm odd or crazy but you haven't lived until you go on a rodent ass kicking contest in the slush, mud, and rain. Liberating. Eta: just so I don't get doxxed by PETA and harassed the rest of my life... I don't kick hard at all. I'm not playing to kill or even to hurt really. Just a "friendly nudge" to get those beady eye'd mofos off my yard so they can stop staring in my windows laughing at my pain.

Rules of thumb with insitu-CAD setups with bad tracks are surface is stubborn but mids fold like WFT QB's

There is an advantage with mixed events like this. Front side comes in hot, piles up quick, looks amazing, and as soon as sand starts hitting the windows its time to drop the subject completely and move on to something else more productive and interesting. Like kicking bunnies or something like that.

This is why I really don't look beyond storm/no storm outside of 72 hours unless it's locked an loaded. Rounding the base has always looked "ok" but there is a flaw (bruise in the banana high in a bad spot) that isn't going anywhere. Path of least resistance (for now) is overhead and while it's uncommon, the progression makes complete sense. Not much chance for the banana high bruise to go away so now it comes down to where exactly that weakness pulls the low center. IMHO, we're prob at least a full 24 hours away from having a good handle on that piece. All this said, I absolutely do not expect a clean snowstorm anywhere near my house no matter what. But it can still be a pretty solid event even in the cities. .

ICON wants to start pushing the door back open.

Yeah, not sure what this discussion is all about. I can't even remember how many bad track storms dropped 3-6" around the area. They aren't rare. Many of them had much worse conditions leading in. Bad analysis.

Starting to pile up a lot of support for an overhead track. The door for a clean snowstorm is getting awful close to closing for a lot of us. On the other hand, it also looks like a lot of us are going to get more than a little snow. Hard to complain there. The heater continues

I'll always root for the eye of a stacked low to pass over my house. Literally clearish skies. Lol. Would be at night tho unless I'm bad at time.

Tornado watches hoisted.

Gfs is doing what climo usually does. Sometimes that's a good thing.

Agreed. Warm layer/sleet line typically scoots in quicker than models but the boundary layer will be very cold and dense for sure. Nice part about a crappy track in Jan as opposed to Dec or Mar

I lived along the divide in the rockies for 7 years and the largest 24 hour snowfall I can remember is 35" and it happened around Memorial Day weekend of all times. No snow below 10k' but most of my county was above that. Generally speaking, 24" in 24 hours is a massive single storm. However, storm cycles can dump 6-12" every day for 10 days so there's a big difference but the mid atl and NE get hit with very special snowstorms. Geography is powerful.

Remember a few days ago when suppression was the biggest fear when slp was tracking through Indianopolis? Always remember history because it repeats. Obviously now it's entirely different but still, I was never once worried about a whiff south when this thing showed up. My concern was no storm at all so that was avoided at least for now. I'd be good with a deep closed 500mb low tracking overhead. Rare occurrence so again, it seems "off" but I say bring it. Stormier the better.

Keep what @high riskrisk said yesterday in the front of your mind about the gfs op and its respective ens control and suite. They currently do not run on the same physics so even the gefs control really has no good analysis comparison to the gfs op. Basically treat them separately when they diverge

He's finally getting it. I'll say it one more time... you have to be truly heartfelt nice to wx models and Ma Nature or else. It's killing Ji that I went 2 for 2 and he went 1 for 2 so he's trying to catch up.

We had some amazing ones during the 3 year snow drought. Mine didn't come until 2013 I think. Before the March debacle iirc. After that I was literally unstable as a person and an overall liability to society in general Eta: then 2013-14 walked in the door and literally saved my life and the universe and the 4th dimension from extinction

Yea, this will be my last post on this topic. I shouldn't even have started it. I already said this stuff last year. Personally, I absolutely love a good melt or epic rant... but only when it's appropriate for where we are. When I melt you can be assured it was a short term shift to disaster. Not 5 days out from am extremely complicated setup. Rants and melts should be saved for the highest impact timing. Not every 6 hours far beyond the range of a storm being real. Lol

I had a bit of a life epiphany back in early 2019. We're conditioned to think and feel certain ways about life, politics, relationships, and ALL the other stuff. Most (if not all) gets wrapped in negative emotional cycles because of this. Especially politics but applies all over. Sports. Friends. Co-workers. Church if that's your thing. And on and on Well, I'm the f'n boss, not society or societal construct rules. I know exactly what brings negative cycles into my thoughts and emotions so you know what I did? I f*cking removed them! I don't watch news anymore at all (I read what's important to me. No watching random crap). Idgaf about the WFT, the white house, I dropped my negative friends (told them all exactly why in a respectful way), and grabbed my own live by the horns. I have never ever felt more powerful as a person than I do today. I could talk an hour more about this but that's the gist. But with all the personal changes comes some collateral or sympathetic effects. One of which is not being around here much anymore and with how this place operates that will continue to decline. It sucks but it's a me thing and I'm on the right track across the board in my life

It's been proven that 4 out of 3 people have problems with fractions and math.

When Wes and the rest of the old crew was active it was very different here. The primary focus was always the science and not the emotions. Plenty of weeniesm of course but the foundation was real analysis first. That flipped a few years ago for whatever reason. Feels like the old way is never coming back unfortunately