Bob Chill

That's not correct. With storms that have temp problems, Kuchera is the lowest. Sometimes by several magnitudes. Kuchera uses modeled ratios and ground/air temps in the calculation. It's useful. Very. If you use it right and not just rip and read Eta: this storm has all the ingredients for 10:1+. Our area usually maxes at 15:1 no matter what the models say. But in this case, the column is solid top to bottom and we're exclusively on the cold side of the storm (for now). It's completely reasonable in this case to assume a minimum of 10:1. How much qpf falls is a different disco

Yes, there's a very well studied reason. Heather Archambault did the initial research IIRC. You'll here the term "Archambault Event" around the forum. By simplist definition it's a big east coast storm that occurs during an NAO phase change. Our area likes it when the NAO goes from neg to neutral (or positive)

I think perspective is important for expectations here. Yesterday was a VERY vigorous shortwave. I mean look at that thing. Going neg exactly where we want it. Upper levels were very dynamic. A lot to like right there for potential good snowfall. This is Fri's: If you focus just on surface maps you'd think this storm is similar because of the track and accum snow. But are they similar where it really counts? Not even close imo. We don't know exactly how the shortwave is going to look yet. Could easily be sharper/stronger. But it won't be nearly as vigorous as the one that just went thru. For that reason alone, reasonable expectations should be front and center but I kinda doubt they will be. Lol

Anecdotal evidence but strongly agree and have thought the same thing for at least 8-10 years. Hot hands rotate. We see it every winter. Gfs does ok in the mid range with northern stream shortwaves. Often the first model to pick up on one with potential. Euro does a nice job with pure southern stream waves in the mid range most of the time. Other than that, it's best to keep an open mind and apply your yard climo and what usually happens with a similar setup. Personally, I stick to the euro/gfs combo and just blend them with my yard climo. Works well for mid range thoughts. Thing is, we're focusing on an acre of land with a model that covers every acre on the planet. What we often think are huge shifts really aren't. Some are absolutely miniscule but the sensible effect is huge. This often results in unfair criticism but that's a whole nuther barrel of worms.

Could be. Always hard to say. A lot of complicated stuff happens quickly (and closely) with these systems. It's why they are known to bust in the short range because our latitude is just south of where the coastal can dump. Not saying I think this is what will happen but through history, these storms love to paint 2 stripes of ok snow west and east (winterwxluvr and CAPE) and not much in-between. Wnwxluvr will be reporting mod snow for a few hours with 2-3" piling up quick but it doesn't "extrapolate" eastward. It collapses and re-ignites. I think most will get accum snow but heady expectations may steal the fun for some

It's a fast mover and much drier leading in than yesterday's. Progressive middle of the road NS shortwaves that never go negative or close off until N of our latitude almost always have a modest ceiling and a widespread warning event is usually above that ceiling. This storm is more on the dynamics side and less on the easier to predict moisture transport side. Tricky. These types of shortwave love to have a "middle finger" somewhere just north of where the low jumps from land to water... my yard has been in that middle finger more than I want to admit...

Just under 6" for my yard. Sucks I was so busy earlier. Didn't get to enjoy much after 9am but super fun storm no matter. Our weeping cherry turned into a snowbrella lol https://imgur.com/a/4RrfPcd Eta: Not sure why image isn't embedding. No biggie. Tons of better eye candy itt already

Idk man. I get plenty of rain every single winter like clockwork. Usually 10" or more. Practically every single year. Sometimes they are dry and I get 7" of rain during met winter. Never embarrassingly low totals or not totals at all tho. Snow? Give me cold on the balance and I'll never complain.

Hypothetically, the storm would have a much larger precip shield that today's and won't scoot eastward at our latitude. So the potential for a larger storm geographically exists. However, as of right now, the shortwave is not modeled to be nearly as vigorous as the current where it counts in the MS Valley. That would imply lower qpf maxes in general compared today. None of this matters though. We have no idea what the shortwave will look like as it rounds the base of the trough. That makes or breaks everything.

Yep, and it was like 80 degrees close to Xmas iirc. Lol. I haven't paid close attention to anything this year and only got interested when ens all agreed that the upper levels where it counts showed legit cold air delivery for the east. Then my next thought was "this sure reminds me of how things looked during JFM 14&15. Me and winterwxluvr constantly do the lite beer tastes great less filling thing. For my yard, no cold is no snow. Normal temps are in the 40s at their coldest for me. Without real cold air around I get F'd consistently. I always root for a cold pattern first before giving a crap about precip. Well, looks like an OK cold pattern + active storm track is on the way. Some of my biggest yard problems are going away for a time. All about storm track now and we all know a progressive -EPO/WAR pattern makes models look clueless if you track 50 mile shifts like a rabid dodig. In the upcoming pattern, if you're not expecting ops to jump all over in the mid range, you haven't been doing this long enough yet.

Damn. Right on time with the Euro. 72-96 hours too. Close to the range where the general idea locks in. Perfect.

Pretty much every long timer here knows that our "good" winter periods are usually very compressed and storms come in bunches. No idea why. Just how it is. Don't have any worthwhile thoughts about late week except we might have kicked off the first of a "storm bunch" today. If that's really possible, Fri may end up similar to today with how models did in the mid range. If you go thru history, our compacted storm periods can happen in any type of enso and can even happen in the face of an abysmal winter. Wx is weird like that. We haven't had a heater since Feb-Mar 2015. Would be kinda nice to have another but that's just me.

Snow takes a while to fall 5k feet and the radar beam returns are from well off the ground. It's really obvious with snow squall lines that blow thru. Yellows overhead and nothing in the air, followed by an immediate meltdown here, then quickly followed up with a "scratch last post it's dumping" lol

How often do we have yellows pushing into a razor edge where literally nothing is falling west of there in the MIDDLE of a storm? This happens with departing coastals often but always right at the end. This storm is rare (very) in that respect.

Thickest from the top down no doubt

Edge should get some pushback here as the low approaches our latitude but the models did a sick job at modeling an exceptionally sick cutoff. I'm very impressed. These are the features that cause us big big headaches. Not this time.

Nah, no need to put effort into things that require no effort. #s speak for themselves up north. Period. And I(we) all know it. We love you as a person but we fookin hate your yard. Gotta take the good with the bad. Lolz Eta: there's another good thing! This storm puts the subforum redistricting movement on hold.

It used to bother me. Now I embrace it. Which is good because I'm very happy for PSU rn. Not always the case

Here we go! CO powder falling. The sweet (and lucky) part of this storm's "edge" is the line isnt a dusting one side and 1" on the other. It's a damn party anywhere east of the edge. Enjoy cuz it's not common

Use imgur or whatever hosting. Uploading here sucks. Fills up your storage and files have to be deleted individually. I haven't been able to upload here for years because there no fookin way I'm deleting 1k files one at a time. With imgur and similar, just upload and paste the link here. It will embed the pic

Not going to have much time to post but we're only a few hours away now from the CCB type snows. Kinda already happening in ppaces but the low has a bunch of latitude to gain yet. I'm a bit west obviously but I'm still expecting some colorado style powder even if brief. Peeps east of 95 may have their best scene in many many years.

It's when snow falls so hard all at once it registers in the Richter scale

Dryslot runs from Atlanta to Ric already. Uh oh...

You should move east near 95. You'd get both wishes on the regular.

Discuss SEVA climo history in another thread. Nobody wants to read that here. Not a single person.