Bob Chill

Ellinwood is smart AF and a really good person overall IME but God damn I usually hate the mf'er when his maps get hoisted...

Bullish! Nice! My skeptimeter is tingling with accum problems. My yard could see nearly 1" qpf but my weenie brain can't get past 4" of potatoes with mud underneath. I'll hug your map and stfu now

As usual, we all have our own problems. SE has the energy and precip but nasogood temps. It will snow at 35 no prob but the stickage is far from efficient. Corridor has a little of both depending on where you live. NW crew has the rates problem but notsomuch the temp problems. When you put this all together... it looks very familiar... Rug pull or that kind of stuff was def not my intent. If you live in the SE zones of the snow part of this storm, the most unlikely outcome is 10:1 snowfall imho Eta: just to be very clear... lol...SE zones are in a great spot for intense snowfall but that doesn't = intense accumulations. There can't be big lulls. Especially after sunrise. If the hot and heavies pile up by dawn it would help a lot there. My yard has the typical problem... wasted front side precip. I've seen plenty of storms waste .3 qpf to SnowTV. Lulls and weak spots in the shield can destroy my hopes and dreams. If the SE crew jacks its prob because the NW side underperformed.

I'm not talking any kind of shift in the track of the upper low. Just that there's always "THE BAND" in the cold side of storms like this on the northern edge of the precip shield and NW of the band usually gets mad AF with light rates and "pulsey" precip. Right now the climo favored zones are dangerously close to the subsidence zone. It happens sometimes. Like in the 2013-15 stretch but far more often than not... I'm not talking about the corridor like our houses. We're in very good spot considering crappy temps and rates usually try to screw the pooch. I'm not expecting a jack but in this particular case... I like where my yard is.

You know I agree with you but it always finds a way.... maybe the vigor of the upper low on the current track "forces the band" to where it should be... idk man... somehow someway...

Now that h5 is closed and/or aggressive on all models, time to have fun with pin the tail on the almost certain frontogen band on the NW periphery. Models right now have it SE of the fall line. Does that ever happen with h5 passes like this? Climo has been showing up in the model trends.... Eta: another perspective is parrs/climo favored areas are still dancing in the subsidence zone... how often does that verify?

This is a 2 week winter like 99-00 Awesome. Destroys last year that only lasted 2 minutes. Kinda like prom night.

Is this your first season looking at wx models?

Feb? Thats a +13 month Uh oh

Disaster H5 looks pretty much the same as Mondays storm did from d5+. If it snows Monday, late week is a lock. If Monday fails, see you in Feb.

I'm retired. You're the next generation my man. I'm just in it for the lolz now.

You lookin for me?

Look at how it happens tho. The ull is waaaay west so it just a weak wave of moisture breaking off the low and slamming into a shred factory of downhill confluence. That's not going to get it done in mid march. We need upper level support. Otherwise it's light precip and blah temps.

It's a touchy setup. Some serious downhill confluence on approach. That's a red flag because the same thing that forces the track far enough south is also a common feature that shreds storms. Weak storm + march = high prob no snow for you and me

Lol. We all know it's low probability and will prob vanish before any type of thread can be created... but... 12z ops/ens def grabbed my attention. I havent even been looking at models much at all since the last debacle. I only looked today because I'm doing all the heavy lifting spring yard work and wanted to see what next weekend brings wx wise. It was a bit shocking really. The way the gfs/euro show the chance is not far fetched or unthinkable. Looks exactly like how late winter can toss weenies a wiener

If it's really going to snow in Mar, the setup next weekend is a very believable way to do it. Also makes sense that some of the winter default teleconnections come back with a vengence one more time before spring legit takes over. Personally, I'm 100% over winter wx and 100% ready for RV season but wx gon wx and wx don't give one F about my or anyone's feelings. If it holds together or comes into better focus later this week, I'll be back in just like everyone else including the straight up liars that say they won't

I would staple some chicken wire to a sawhorse, grab a puck, stick, and skates, and change my screen name to BobbyOrr. Then I'd cross check the small diameter trees to the ground and sucker punch the big trees before going to the penalty box

Yea, not to mention the type of deal it is. Fairly heavy precip in a line like a front and low pressure passing well north. I'll never get excited for that in my yard. Can it accumulate near the cities? Sure, def possible. But only with the lucky combo of cold enough air from 925 on down and fairly intense precip like a line of storms. I'm not hanging my hat on being cold enough AND being under a spring cell like burst of snow. I'm interested in the event itself as it could be sneaky but only interested in real time. I see no reason to track or dig into every model run. My guess is a middle ground. A period of very attractive snowfall with nothing to measure as it moves east.

Every single person here either secretly or openly thinks the same way. I'm honest about it. I've had irrational thoughts of hooking up a big trailer to my truck, driving psu's or wnwxluvr's, and stealing all the snow off their yards while they're sleeping. I realized it was a crazy thought just west of front royal on 66 and turned around. My friends still living in CO text me pictures of deep powder days. That does get to me a little. Considered moving back at least a thousand times

Does anybody really care about anyone's snow climo beyond their own yard? I sure don't. Never understood why people care when areas to our north or south get hit and we fail. It snows all over the globe 12 months a year non stop. Any place outside of my yard is all the same to me irt snow. Nonexistent. Areas of Japan get buried 5 stories deep. Places like that is where we should be envious. Certainly not Scranton. Lol

It looks like precip would start around 6-8am even on the euro right? It's a warm front/band of precip on the move and by 18z it's already east of 95. I havent looked all that close tho. Soundings look half decent at 12z monday. It would make sense this winter to get ok snow in an unconventional and convoluted way.

It can happen but we really need a heck of an antecedent airmass (and deep to our sw) and a fast moving storm. The leaf of precip on the south side is just a warm front. I'm not writing it off and it's def discussionable (new word!).

So I finally button up an intense week and did a quick scan of the board. Here's what I found 1) even though the horse has literally been beaten dead, resurrected, and beaten dead again, the same ridiculous and excessively stupid debate about MD/DE/NJ/PA snow climo finds its way back. Again. And it still makes my eyes bleed and makes we want to threaten innocent yard rodents' lives with my foot 2) Nothern stream lows that track north of us with avg at best temps have never once been a good snow setup here but somehow monday is different 3) The digital storm next friday is so locked and loaded that it's already time to parse details of every op run from over a week out. Which makes sense considering how amazingly predictable long and mid range has been this year. Short range has been an epic disaster though so nothing to worry about until the night before the storm. I'm in

This time of year it doesnt matter as much. Wavelengths shorten and upper level bowling balls start rolling down the lanes.

It was def cold in russia/asia but Canada can torch for days, weeks, or months and all it would take is an epo ridge and it would get very cold in no time. Like 5 days or less. Our temp problems are almost always 1 of 2 things. Southeast ridge or pac maritime air filling up canada or the conus. The pac jet has been persistently bad but nothing is permanent. There are cycles in cycles going on all around us with all kinds of things (pdo, amo, ao, nao, enso, etc). When they line up things are great and when they dont it sucks. I figured this year would stink since back in the fall. Blocking will always get my attention. So far it hasnt been enough. Boom or bust is just how we roll in these parts