Bob Chill

A big storm is suspect with the general upper level pattern. It can happen but only when hitting on all cylinders (like Feb 2014). Euro/cmc have shown a path but there's no way they could lock into that this far out in a progressive patten. I know you know this up and down. But there are still plentiful peeps here who expect ops to lock into any and every big storm from a week out. It can easily snow next weekend but prob not the way the euro/cmc are showing. Any shortwave passing 1-2 days or more after a front can be something... or nothing.... Still feel pretty strongly that any event thru this month will be modest if we get another. Like 6-10" tops or something like that but 3-6/4-8 type totals fit the upper levels from what I see.

When is the last time we had a 985mb slp pass directly overhead? I have a really nice old school baro on the wall. I usually try to mark the unusual low pressures. Right now the marking needle is pointing 29.22 (around 990mbs) and I don't even remember when I moved it last.

For MBY, this storm feels like an unexpected bonus check. I never really got seriously invested because these types of deals absolutely LOVE to slip away. It did start doing that yesterday but felt really good this AM when I checked all the data. Imho (subjective topic) this storm is 3 for 3 for my yard. All 3 did pretty much everything they could to ensure I got "acceptable" outcomes. This has been a very friendly period. Could continue easily too. We are a persistence wx location

Looks like peeps to the SW either hit "their bar" or overperformed. Will that trait with this storm suddenly vanish on our doorstep? Doubt it. My wild ass guess call 2 days ago was 3-4". Started doubting it but still feel good. Me thinks you hit double digits before the curtains close at 5k'.

The potential next weekend reminds me an awful lot of how we got multiple ok storms in JF 2014. A few of those strong waves running boundaries were modeled ok pretty far in advance. The progressive nature of the flow will jump things around by default but we're seeing a little bit of consistency show up 6 days out. Today's storm was well modeled that far in advance. We'll see

It is pretty comical in not the funniest way that we can't start threads far in advance. I mean the avg age here has to be in the upper 30s at least. But we simply can't have a clean and focused discussion about a possible wx event 4-5+ days in advance. Instead, because our area has always been and will always be dicey with storms, the storm threads become devoid of good analysis and unreadable every 6-12 hours. The pile-on party of despair and bad posts phenomena is an unstoppable snowball.

Pro weenie tip with COD radar. When WAA snow approaches from the S or SW, always watch the triangle shaped radar shadow pointing SW. When that fills in with greens pretty much simultaneously as the unobscured area around it, there typically won't be much virga at onset. Good thing to know if you don't already.

Omg dude! Memory lane... my mom was an Italian immigrant just after WW2 in west Hartford. My grandfather didn't speak English and was a true (and self proclaimed) WOP. Here's where you may gross out a bit.... my grandfather used to take me fishing on the CT River literally 5 miles from that picture. We would catch big fat catfish and big slimy eels. My grandfather kept and ate everything.... out of the CT River in the 70s.... when the water had luminescence from pollution (kidding... barely) lolol

I think I'm older than you (50+)? When I was in the rockies in the 90s, I couldn't shake the "missing something" feeling of being out there like that. It actually drew me back here in 99. I was a hard core work hard play hard suburbanite until my mid 40s. It all changed. Everything became crystal clear. For me to be ultimately satisfied, I HAVE to be surrounded by big nature, views, and peace. It's how I'm wired. Once I finally accepted that as my "design", I completely stopped caring about the rat race and material world. I was trained to be really good at it and I'm thankful AF for that, but my heart and soul are elsewhere for sure. Same with my wife. Identical goals right now. Strange after 20+ years of marriage

I'm going into semi retirement here once post HS education is paid for with my next 2. I'll be 56-58 so not ancient. I'm pretty cheap and I work hard AF. I accidently saved enough to call it quits with the rat race as long as cost of living is low. There is no comparison down south. Prop taxes on 30 acres and a 2500sf house are sub $2k. Virginia will have almost no income taxes against us either. Very exciting prospect. My back yard already looks like the country. 2 fire pit areas. We grow food all over in raised beds. Fruit being planted this spring. Stone paths in my "lol woods". Giant wood pile I split by hand. If I can do this on a 3rd of an acre, lord help my back with 30 Eta: maths for reference. I currently pay over $12k/yr for prop taxes, home insurance, and car insurance. Insane. In Southern VA it will prob be 3k tops. Maybe 4. Just one example. You only need a mountain of money to retire in popular cities. You can live a beautiful life on basically a shoestring just a few hour drive away.

I always wondered if you jumped on Blue Ball Road off 95 in NMD and headed south, would you eventually end up on Morningwood Drive in Olney?

Air is damn cold for our area so pretty dense dome to push out of here. More often than not, surface hangs longer than expected in these setups. Nothing can stop the 850mb push tho.

If you put your really big weenie hat on you can draw some very slight similarities to the 2014 all snow west track. Might have been 2015. Worst track and high placement ever for an all snow event. There's a chance

This is why it's always best to wait until approach before jumping on Nam thermals when they diverge. Meso models can go off on tangents due to their intense resolution. Now that the storm actually has a good circulation, we'll see mesos hone in on the mids.

Just for fun. Some long times here know my wife and I are getting out of Rockville in the next 5 years or so. We've been looking at many many options in all directions. Ji prob remembers Kerr Lake and Gaston talk from a year or 2 ago. That has evolved and we're focus exclusively on the entire general area around Smith Mountain Lake. Leesville Lake too. Possibly the other side of the blue ridge near 81 but that's prob going to be it. Looking at 30 acres or so with a semi-self sufficient "compound". So not leaving the area entirely, probably. Quite a mental journey figuring out this move. Far far far more options than when we bought our Rockville house. And I'm very very thankful for Rockville real estate. Allows us to "downsize" considerably and still get everything reasonable we want. Just need to live long enough now...

I'm just happy for Transco Village. They had an unfair and rough go for a while. Especially the 70s, 80s, and 90s. They can finally just be Transco Village and not give a single F anymore. Long time coming man

So a road trip could be Kentuck into Pleasant Gap followed by Tightsqueeze and then Climax. Just stay TF out of Lumpkin Forest with your Kentuck and all is good.

The town of Climax thrives because of the town of Tightsqueeze. A synergy of sorts

Too bad our problems have little to do with the surface low. Let me know when the upper level low ends up south and east about 150 miles from guidance

We'll get some more snow imo. Not even thinking about that going away. All guidance is wintry in general for as far as you can see. Not optimal but pretty good. I just hope expectations aren't thru the roof. It's still mostly a northern stream pattern and rather progressive. A bit of a WAR showing up. Fast movers unless cutoff. Strong systems need luck to not cut. Personally, active winter periods are much much much more fun for me than a 10 day big Miller A track. I like variety in this hobby too. Feeling optimistic for more snow just not great for a big coastal here without random chaos putting pieces in place at just the right time. No long tracks in our future me thinks.

I made a typo in my op and went back and fixed it. It is uncommon in winter with an upper level setup like this to have the low stack and start occluding so early. Which can still easily work for a big storm with a clean offshore track. That's not what we have here due to that stupid hallway of weakness tracking NW of the upper low. It what it is. Ultimately, we just want Feb 2010 type storms. Capture and stack just off shore near or just south of our latitude. Those types of storms never stop snowing and the finale is usually heavy high ratio stuff as things crank in the upper levels 9ver the gulf stream. We can also do well with an upper level "trailer" type progression. Jan 2011 and Feb 2014 are perfect examples. Lull in between sucks but it's still a 1-2 punch. Those progressions often smoke the NE big time because they catch the climax during the capture phase. Once a storm stacks, it's done getting stronger. It marks the beginning of the weakening process. Occlusion is well along in the weakening process. Basically, whomever is due west or NW when the upper and mid level lows move over top of the surface low will be smiling ear to ear for many hours Eta: no matter what the progression is, generally speaking you want all 3 to pass south and east of us. We can survive the upper low passing over or west on a slanted system if the surface and mid level lows draw in cold air (banana highs are so dman important because of this). We can sometimes survive an 850 low passing west or overhead. Surface low? Lol. We survived one in 2014 but that shocked basically everyone.

That low jump is just a digital thing from what I can tell. Model graphic output is programmed to stamp an L at the lowest pressure but the lowest pressure is fluid so the L jumps around inside the "bag of low pressure". I like using the shaded mslp anomaly maps to just compare the bigger bag (general center) and not the L (specific center). I could be wrong here so someone correct me if so

I think a lot of the unwillingness to accept the outcome stems from not understanding how low pressure systems evolve. There isn't just a surface low like everyone looks at on TT. There are also mid and upper level lows. At our latitude in the winters, it's uncommon to have all 3 on top of each other like this south of us. They are usually "slanted" with the surface first and upper last. When you get all 3 spinning together right over top of each other and no cold high feeding the beast,, you better be far NW from the center or you're in big wet trouble.

It does in comparison to other closed lows approaching from the south with cold around. But there's a fundamental difference here... the storm has basically fully matured well south of our latitude. We can get smoked during the maturation process and then get a second serving with the upper level low but the process of getting there is not what we're seeing at all. Because the storm is stacked without any kind of cold feed,, it's a literal warm air vacuum and circulator near the stacked low center. When these types of events develop further north, the stacking process usually happens offshore and to our NE. Then SNE gets literally blizzardeded after we already got a big event. From a good snowstorm comparison, this particular storm is really really screwed up compared to others and the idea was clear as day nearly 4 days ago. Dems the breaks man. Stuff happens.

Sim sat doesn't look much like a snowstorm at all. Cuban express