Ian

tracking hurricanes in real time is dumb until they are like 48 from landfall and by then everyone's really awful to deal with.

Never hurts but it was favorable most of the day. This air mass is apparently kinda borderline. Hard not to be swayed at all by 2m temps but as usual they were too high at any range.

Bust 100 is hard I guess.

Airports battling it out to be the first with the 100 5 min ob.

Today is playing out better than yesterday for 100 for sure. It'll still be close but imagine DCA will get it at this rate.

Generally like big heat to peak late here it is often cumulative esp at a place like DCA. But tomorrow does seem it should be no worse than today as far as sky cover.. for now. Had a suspicion 100 would be harder to come by than it looked from the data but then saw 24-25C 850s on the Euro yesterday and kinda sorta bit, tho leaned lower than my first range.

Agree it's generally on the low end of expectations, which really is not that shocking since it's so humid. But HI right now is 110 at DCA, 106 at Dulles and 107 at BWI. All three have hit at least 97. Maybe underselling by a few degrees.

Soon. Or probably not but sooner than I'd like.

Too hot.

My seasonal call of 16.2" at DCA is back in play baby!

I don't even know which thread to be in but there's some good model porn out there these days.

It's pretty simple we are cursed

I have arrived to ruin the snow threat.

Yeah it's been a rough one all around. Pretty rare to go through such a lengthy cold pattern with very little to show. And it seemed we were off to a good start early. My outlook was actually not bad on temps and progression but I for some reason also thought we'd finish near/slightly above avg snow. Derp derp.

Don't really need a historic NAO... this blocking period was quite ideal in location and evolution. I do wonder how much the change from going neg to pos in longer range stuff to going neg to neutral or almost neutral then getting the NAO to drop again matters. Once that signal started showing up things became increasingly complicated on the modeling.. although tbh I am not sure how much it matters to not change phase and still rise quite a bit. Maybe less than worth considering. These sorta three storm patterns are common in a -NAO regime as well.. for whatever reason we often like the third if not the first. Phasing and related are always complicated for us. While a fat STJ isn't a prereq for a good snow here it does tend to make things simpler. Simpler is how we score.