Ian

My seasonal call of 16.2" at DCA is back in play baby!

I don't even know which thread to be in but there's some good model porn out there these days.

It's pretty simple we are cursed

I have arrived to ruin the snow threat.

Yeah it's been a rough one all around. Pretty rare to go through such a lengthy cold pattern with very little to show. And it seemed we were off to a good start early. My outlook was actually not bad on temps and progression but I for some reason also thought we'd finish near/slightly above avg snow. Derp derp.

Don't really need a historic NAO... this blocking period was quite ideal in location and evolution. I do wonder how much the change from going neg to pos in longer range stuff to going neg to neutral or almost neutral then getting the NAO to drop again matters. Once that signal started showing up things became increasingly complicated on the modeling.. although tbh I am not sure how much it matters to not change phase and still rise quite a bit. Maybe less than worth considering. These sorta three storm patterns are common in a -NAO regime as well.. for whatever reason we often like the third if not the first. Phasing and related are always complicated for us. While a fat STJ isn't a prereq for a good snow here it does tend to make things simpler. Simpler is how we score.

This one had plenty of red flags just like everything else this winter. I thought the pattern was working things out.. it seemed to in other places. This is bad luck for us as much as anything else esp if we get through this pattern with almost nothing. But at the same time Ninas generally blow. Silly interests we have.

What a disaster.

This is tough one even tho it's March. Bottom line is we suck.

Ok so maybe a few.

I'm not sure there has ever been a suppressed snowstorm in March before.

It's not an awful match except we have a #fakestj. It is March etc etc.

Should see Feb 5-6 2010 rise back on the list. Maybe Dec 2009 since it goes up the coast.

I think that lakes wave is pretty important. The GFS is much slower with it than the Euro... and the GFS is better with the northern stream so yeah get the shovels out. ;p