Stebo

2000 J/kg SBCAPE at this time of year isn't earth shattering, especially when we can get to 3000+ very easily on most hot and humid days in Iowa.

Do you have any reasoning behind this or just shooting at the dark like you always do.

Nice pictures! No damage in your locale?

Yes, I would agree, shear is increasing with the storm. Yeah I am not seeing the circulation being much of anything right now. I am still seeing a ton of debris with the storm though lofted ahead of it.

Monster circulation, spun up pretty fast too.

Yes, there is a TDS there. moving toward Winterset.

Wisconsin also has a supercell east of MSP producing.

DCA: +1.0 NYC: +0.7 BOS: -0.5 ORD: +1.0 ATL: +2.2 IAH: +1.0 DEN: +2.8 PHX: +2.5 SEA: -1.5

Euro brings the heat northward, as the ridge flexes its muscles, I would tend to agree with the Euro. Not to mention the GFS has been bad for a while now, case in point how it handled Cindy especially at day 5 and beyond, for example.

Rivers and streams must be running at the highest you have ever seen them with all the rain this spring-early summer.

Man parts of the UP struggling to get much past 50 right now. What is this, October?

Yeah been watching that period into the weekend.

Here is a huge picture collection of the flooding in Mount Pleasant: http://media.themorningsun.com/2017/06/23/mid-michigan-flood/ The Chippawa River is expected to crest a foot below the Sept 1986 record, and for anyone who was around back then, they know that was one of the worst flooding events to ever hit this state.

Incredible stuff, having lived there for 5 years, a lot of these places I know it takes an insane amount of water to flood them. Here is a story from 9/10 news about the flooding situation: http://www.9and10news.com/story/35732726/heavy-rain-causes-flooding-in-mount-pleasant

Yeah, actually a not too often used site is VLL, which is Birmingham-Troy airport, it is in a densely populated area in Central Oakland County and it actually runs pretty close to DTW most days. For today for example, DTW 89/63, VLL 88/63. We have to look at what areas are similar, you just can't compare to DET for a multitude of reasons. It wouldn't make sense with YIP so close anyways. Maybe all these years we thought it was hot, when in reality it is closer to the truth and backed up by DTW's numbers albeit DTW being a tick cooler.