Stebo

Yeah that is worrisome.

Man, I really hope there is no early season heavy rain event up there. It is going to be a disaster. Can you still see your house?

What did you film this with, a potato?

Did you order some vertical lift, a year's supply just arrived!

I would watch the southern part of the region for severe too, that might even be thread worthy, Paducah was already talking up the potential down there.

Yeah the 2008 floods in June were very extreme, some places breaking 1993 numbers.

Should for a while, it is associated with the weak surface low and in an area of upper divergence.

Definitely should have been an advisory out for DTX, so many reports in the 3-5" range.

2008 late winter major flooding in OH/TN/MS valleys as well.

2" here since 6pm.

Somewhere there is a house back there.

This is the big take away I have been seeing even with the big systems the gulf isn't getting obliterated.

Several good years had bad Marchs, that doesn't concern me too much. The things that I like as a whole going into this spring: 1. All the rain in the OH/TN valley 2. Strong baroclinicity 3. Strong LLJs already with quick recovery before a system several times this year. 4. An absurd amount of western snow in the mid to late season 5. Tendency for strong -PNA and any ridging on the west coast has been progressive and transient. The main question is what areas should do well. Whether it is the SE/MW/Plains, I do feel someone and maybe even all 3 have the potential to do well.

It is good for Iowa, Minnesota, Northern WI/MI. With some luck maybe down to Chicago but the problem is you have the low go north and then a whoosh of cold air before warmth and low going north. A lot like the pattern in December/early January. This is fine by me though, if it isn't going to be a big storm then go north and help setup that clash of air masses for spring.

That stuff last March and April was misery.