Stebo

It can be good if it centers near the coast. Too far east and it's cold and dry. Further west and the storm track goes through the sub.

89 for a high at DTW still could make a run at 90, at 88 currently.

88 at DTW so far, that ties the record for today.

If Detroit can stay above 68 Tuesday, that will be an all time record high minimum for the entire month of October. Current forecast low Monday night is 70.

Euro has them close to 100, 96 and 97 on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Nice blank posts

I would be cautious of the GFS, absolutely notorious for pattern breakdowns and too strong of cold shots this time of year. Even if it is right, it immediately warms right back up by the end of the run to ++ anomalies in the east.

Love seeing 2010 show up, that fall had a good amount of severe and the winter was spectacular.

Gfs smoking crack season

I think there will be enough land interaction tomorrow that it won't make it that low. Is there a small chance, sure but I would be surprised at anything lower than 948mb.

950mb tonight at the strongest is my call. No way it drops 20mb.

Slowly deepening, not 20 mb though. Obviously the Euro is overdoing it.

It could deepen but there is no chance in hell it goes down to 937mb, especially since it is grossly overdoing the deepening tonight. It is a bad model projection.

Again this just isn't true, the outflow is still symmetrical and not getting impacted by the trough, I have no idea what you are looking at but the satellite I am looking at shows none of what you are saying.

It isn't a cat 2 right now, you are basing a lot of observations on radar which is very misleading at this range too. IR and water vapor shows a much more realistic representstion.