wokeupthisam

Two invasive insect species of concern in NE could have significant mortality of this year's population, if we can get cold enough. Both the Emarald Ash Borer (EAB) and Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (HWA) populations are susceptible to anomalous cold events, especially as temps approach -20F. "...researchers from the U. S. Forest Service and Minnesota Department of Agriculture found that the supercooling temperature for the Minnesota EAB population was about -13°F. Based on these results, a model was created that predicts that about five percent of EAB larvae should die when temperatures reach 0°F, 34 percent at -10°F, 79 percent at -20°F, and an impressive 98 percent should die at -30°F. (Venette, R.C. & Abrahamson, M. (2010) Cold hardiness of emerald ash borer PDF , Agrilus planipennis: a new perspective.) Studies on the HWA show similar results. Also their mortality is higher when the cold occurs after a period of relatively milder conditions, as the insects gradually adapt their supercooling ability in sustained cold periods, so this event holds promise for a (temporary) setback for these insects in 2023 in NE. I'm cheering for -20F here overnight Friday for that reason alone. Seems like an ideal setup to hamper those invasives for a season anyway, while not prolonging the severe conditions for people and wildlife. Bring it!

Yup... "beware the Ides of March"

Interesting to track as we head closer. 00Z run verified 2F too warm, had 13F at 2Z, actual was 11F. Not significant but kinda bored watching models right now lol

2nd cleanup was about 5in of fluff from the mid-aftn band. Great over-achiever, might have guessed from the panic around the feeders this am - it's like they think they'll never find food again ; )

30.2/30F closing in on 13" for the storm, still S+ but heaviest looks about ready to move east Snow stake shows about 16" settled

27.5/27.3 that margin has been consistent for 12+ hours... S+ last 40 mins, 8.5 new 10am today:

27.3/27.1 with snow picking up again and better growth. Heard sleet against the windows around 5am, power blinked about 5:30a just as wind kicked up suddenly from the N NE, eyeballing 5.5in new since yesterday at the snow stick

27.1/26.9, calm wind, -SN and fresh coating

26.6/26.4 few tiny flakes in the air

7 in as of 6pm today, not bad for this winter, cold air/better ratios seem hard to come by - keeps the slate of near-32 degree snow events intact for this winter, this one was between 28F and 31F throughout. Right on the modeled line here for good snows this upcoming week.

36.5/28.7 Anticipating 6 - 8 but secretly hoping for a 9 or 10 surprise... used to feeling a bit cooler in advance of a decent SWFE so we'll see

36.7/28.9 Sky has that SWFE look but usually feels a bit cooler in advance of the good ones

At least 4x, once in Feb, twice in March, and once in April. This year will be one of those, "as the days grow longer, the cold gets stronger". April will be the cruelest month this year.

...from your kbd to God's ears (papal destructive intercession notwithstanding)...

You're a MEAN one, Mr. Grinch...