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The event of the season - 2 days of hell!
wokeupthisam replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Two invasive insect species of concern in NE could have significant mortality of this year's population, if we can get cold enough. Both the Emarald Ash Borer (EAB) and Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (HWA) populations are susceptible to anomalous cold events, especially as temps approach -20F. "...researchers from the U. S. Forest Service and Minnesota Department of Agriculture found that the supercooling temperature for the Minnesota EAB population was about -13°F. Based on these results, a model was created that predicts that about five percent of EAB larvae should die when temperatures reach 0°F, 34 percent at -10°F, 79 percent at -20°F, and an impressive 98 percent should die at -30°F. (Venette, R.C. & Abrahamson, M. (2010) Cold hardiness of emerald ash borer PDF , Agrilus planipennis: a new perspective.) Studies on the HWA show similar results. Also their mortality is higher when the cold occurs after a period of relatively milder conditions, as the insects gradually adapt their supercooling ability in sustained cold periods, so this event holds promise for a (temporary) setback for these insects in 2023 in NE. I'm cheering for -20F here overnight Friday for that reason alone. Seems like an ideal setup to hamper those invasives for a season anyway, while not prolonging the severe conditions for people and wildlife. Bring it! -
Yup... "beware the Ides of March"
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The event of the season - 2 days of hell!
wokeupthisam replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Interesting to track as we head closer. 00Z run verified 2F too warm, had 13F at 2Z, actual was 11F. Not significant but kinda bored watching models right now lol -
7 in as of 6pm today, not bad for this winter, cold air/better ratios seem hard to come by - keeps the slate of near-32 degree snow events intact for this winter, this one was between 28F and 31F throughout. Right on the modeled line here for good snows this upcoming week.
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36.5/28.7 Anticipating 6 - 8 but secretly hoping for a 9 or 10 surprise... used to feeling a bit cooler in advance of a decent SWFE so we'll see
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At least 4x, once in Feb, twice in March, and once in April. This year will be one of those, "as the days grow longer, the cold gets stronger". April will be the cruelest month this year.
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...from your kbd to God's ears (papal destructive intercession notwithstanding)...