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About Amped

  • Rank
    Still showing a big hit FWIW
  • Birthday April 5

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Frederick, MD
  • Interests
    Snowstorms that rank #11 of all time.

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  1. Invest 90L

    Pretty good agreement from EC GFS CMC. Landfall north central gulf coast Monday as a TS or CAT1.
  2. Invest 90L

    Appears to be a center located onshore north of Belize. HWRF gets it to 968mb 65kts at landfall. All models appear to be wrapping convection around to the western side of the storm prior to landfall. This means shear has relaxed enough to make Cat1 a possibility.
  3. Invest 90L

    12z GFS finally caves in. All models have been too fast with the storm over the past several days.
  4. Not good news. Hopefully it gets worked out. https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/scientists-investigate-goes-17-advanced-baseline-imager-performance-issue
  5. Lots of thunder. Surprised the storm isn't warned.
  6. 'Tis the season, but no one wants it

    GFS tries to sneak a weak low up the east coast next weekend. Euro stalls it near New Orleans. CMC is in the FL panhandle, and the UKMET has nothing. I consider the GFS the outlier cause it has the Bermuda high further east and weaker. Euro would dump a lot of rain over LA AL MS and FL. EDIT: 12z Euro hugs the LA coast for at least 4 days. Has support from the FV3
  7. excessive rainfall event—May 16-18, 2018

    16.32 Braddock heights 13.8 Monocacy village, pretty close to downtown 11.32 NW Ballenger Creek 9.52 S Ballenger Creek 7.93 Walmart Looks like your area near ft Detrick was hit the worst. Pretty big differences going from NW to SE.
  8. excessive rainfall event—May 16-18, 2018

    Also hit Srn VA and NC pretty bad in spots. Frederick was the worst in our region. Most convective flood setups end up further SE in the higher CAPE areas. I remember the 2016 WVA flood was supposed to hit us also, it missed by a couple hundred miles. And the 2015 Frederick flood was supposed to hit Pittsburgh.
  9. May Discobs Thread

    NAM cut back again on precip. Can't figure out what is causing it.
  10. May Discobs Thread

    Stephen City floodmaggedon is 3hrs of drizzle.
  11. excessive rainfall event—May 16-18, 2018

    The line north of Richmond is the only thing that looks impressive, and it doesn't appear to be moving north. Edit: HRRR going nuts with that, 10" NW of Richmond
  12. Now this is almost like a storm moving up the Gulf of California.
  13. May Mid/Long Range & Disco

    00z Euro is the last thing we need. Luckily it's day10, but it's not the only model showing a subslopical storm along the NE Gulf coast. 12z GFS likes the idea. GGEM takes it OTS, which hopefully is what verifies.
  14. excessive rainfall event—May 16-18, 2018

    The station that's about 1.5 miles from me has 10.1" since May 13th. Other stations near FT Detrick and Braddock heights have over 12".
  15. May Discobs Thread

    Potomac forecast calls for a crest only in the minor to moderate range. Gotta watch out for for whatever falls Friday though. That could change the forecast. https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lwx&gage=brkm2 https://www.weather.gov/marfc/