Ralph Wiggum

Again, it's an eternity out there in time but I would take my chances and roll the dice with this type of signal:

Same here in Warminster off and on.

Quick post regarding the threat during Dec 24-26 give or take a day which I mentioned last week. Wont go into crazy detail as anything at this range is just speculation. However there have been decent signals showing up still for 'something' during this period centered around Christmas Day. General look is for an active NS with a trof near the GL and energy waves zipping thru and stj energy moving along (less of a trof settling in the SW look). Will come down to timing but a couple of scenarios look possible. Southern wave coming up the coast (eps, euro control, and gfs op) followed behind with a clipper or a gradient pattern with overrunning. Precip type obviously very much up in the air at this point. Suffice it to say this is our next threat window still and the looks have improved with overnight runs. Eta: Emergence of ridging in the Carribbean could be a blessing...some positives taken away. Could go either way keep in mind at this range.

We take

Dude seriously chill out. What are you attacking me for? And yes it is officially met winter it began Dec 1. You really need to check yourself man this is a weather hobby group dont be so angry lol.

Be careful or the trolls will say you cancelled winter because you told it like it is lol.

I think after this approx 2 week period of N to AN temps and cutter storms we shift gears finally around the 21st and I am seeing signals on some LR stuff that tells me the period Dec 22-26 give or take a day bears watching. Whether or not the better looking pattern will hold or becomes transient tbd.

Here comes our Christmas Eve/Christmas Day snowstorm moving thru the Rockies on the 23rd. It's gonna happen:

Models continue to squash and shred the lp and the swath of snow continues to shrink even for them. I'm not impressed with where we are at nor where we are headed thru at least calendar winter.

A good example of how a handful of us had this period circled since just after Thanksgiving because of the pattern looks on the LR ens. Globals currently portray basically what we were looking at....+pna, nao ridge, 50/50 low, stj energy passing below us. But this is a prime example of how a meso feature or 2 embedded within those good looks can screw the whole thing up. You noted these features very well in your post.

We almost always pay for those early starts. Certainly not looking like a winter of yore thus far.

Is that another suppressed S VA, Carolinas hit at day 9-10 on the Euro? That's where we want it at this range right? Eta: nm....too warm everywhere

I have my fork ready. 18z runs are the most important model runs since, well, um, 12z

In a nutshell, until I see actual changes in the pattern and not just what weeklies, monthlies, or otherwise show, I like sticking with current patterns. Im not necessarily a member of the "atmosphere doesn't forget" club, but there is some validity to that as you can attest to, ie, patterns.....they are patterns because the tend to repeat. But even with the Ninos we have seen since 2000, it has been hard to get a -NAO to really stick like the old climo suggests. Climatology averages change over time as you are aware. So based on the decadal pattern we have been in (which could change so I dont sound contradictory....but "when"?) I think the NAO ridging will be transient again. My discussion was also not about the NAO necessarily breaking down but more about how the weeklies and monthlies have this feature trying to lock-in and how epic patterns on progs such as this usually in terms of real weather require a breakdown or relax to get a big storm. I completely agree that to have an AN snowfall year we dont NEED a HECS......heck (no pun intended) we dont even need a MECS or a SECS. Alot of us along I95 can nickel and dime our way to N or even AN. As far as the WAR, it was a feature most of the summer which isnt abnormal BUT I noticed this feature held on longer than usual and when I gathered ideas back in Oct to form an outlook we were still dealing with this off and on. Maybe I have a bad taste still from 14-15(?) where that feature was a common theme....forgive me if I am referencing the wrong season btw. They tend to blend together in my middle age And yeah, I could totally see a squashed pattern as well especially if the Atl remains flat and somewhat progressive tho other factors like a raging EPO ridge among others could overwhelm us with too much cold at times IF the LR stuff has any merit.

Didnt start reading yet, I will after I grab another cup of coffee but I was ready for the counter point as i know you are on the debate team iirc. Always admire a fellow PSU person :-)