Ralph Wiggum

⬆️⬆️ this is what I am getting concerned about. Second time recently LR showed an excellent stormy regime in the East only to be replaced by a redeveloping WAR and trof out West. Like groundhog day....hopefully just leftovers from last winter and the trends/tendencies over NA progress into something else over the next several weeks.

1st image is euro ens....2nd image gfs ens....3rd image cmc ens. Warmish ridge in the east, any stormy regime out West or confined deep South. Maybe this will change, maybe not. Point isnt to troll DT or LC but LR forecasting is humbling as most of us saw last year:

Dear God if this were January and we were expecting a coastal with a track somewhat similar to what most guidance was showing yet we woke up to cloudless skies like today, I cant even imagine the mass cliff jumping. Btw, DT's epic monster Noreaster pattern for Oct 19th or whatever suddenly doesnt look so epic. We're not going to do this "let me be the first to spot a storm 3 weeks out" again this year I hope?

WAR keeps redeveloping on ens and has been an off and on feature all summer. Really hoping that feature isnt a recurring theme and a repeat of last year. Not saying it will be...just have a bad taste still from last winter so obviously watching for trends. Winter outlook is being worked on....will release by early Nov as always.

I see David is hunting unicorns earlier than normal this year lol.

December to remember incoming

Autumn of azz

Fishing patterns have been scorching hot past few days and will only get better. No boredom here

How was Spongebob's home flattened by storm surge? The absorbent in yellow and porous bastard lives in a pineapple UNDER THE SEA ffs

Not sure if it has been covered but since the 3k NAM was one of the few that showed the extreme RI late yesterday and last night, has anyone seen the 18z 3k that deepens rapidly again down to 905mb as it goes from the stall/drift N into the NW turn back towards the N FL coast? That is the last thing we need is a Cat 5 going into another RI as it veers back to the NW/US Coastline. What an absolute jawdropping system to watch/track.

Serious question as I am a bit perplexed. People making posts regarding track based on the HMON and HWRF which are hurricane models. Then follow up replies say don't use the hurricane models for tracking hurricanes. So if the actual hurricane models aren't good for tracking storms they were intended for, which is the best family of guidance for using to track?

I know many say the ICON is irrelevant but has anyone seen 12z? Might want to gander a look for kicks (not giggles) at the very least. Still doesnt buy the quick N bump.

That would be a nightmare track for Free Port. Ouch... Freeport is a poor area too not the best built homes. That is a humanitarian crisis in the making if that were to verify.

I did notice as well the icon has been consistent asf with the far south FL hit (northern keys to fort Lauderdale roughly).