Ralph Wiggum

This wouldnt be a terrible look at all in D-J-F but we all know that we wont see this again until next May

GFS is at it again in the LR. Was showing a long 10-day stretch of sustained negative temp anomalies run after run after run. Slowly backed off of that idea and now looking like avg to AN temps with only a few BN brief appearances. The HL blocking and West-based -NAO has been a nice treat but why always in the summer anymore and never during winter? Has little impact in the summer other than helping us avoid 100F.

Marble sized hail in Warminster earlier.

Missed my house by about a half mile. Isolated/localized damage.

So more of a line of storms tonight as opposed to the individual supercells from yesterday? We tend to always get shafted here with lines of storms for some reason. Strongest embedded cells always seem to go just S or N of my location. Plants look great tho this year so far. Nice wet spring and no super heat yet.

Bullseye

This afternoon looks slightly more volatile to me than yesterday, perhaps not as widespread but higher risk possibility. I have noticed in situations like this for whatever reason when there are similar patterns or flows for a couple of days with severe wx those that miss out on day one 9 out of 10 times will get hit on day 2 or 3. Hoping for some non-destructive boomers here. Last time I was able to photo a supercell to my east that went over me with the setting sun lighting up the towering cumulonimbus associated with the sc was about 25 years ago.

Spring of azz. We missed out too in Warminster. Literally had a cell right over us around 830pm had one flash of lightning and a low rumble of thunder and it was over. Maybe this afternoon.

All this hype on here and local news so I go to the mesos to take a gander and they are mostly showing a fropa with showers and hardly any convection Friday night and early Saturday. Confused.

Jan 20th pattern change didnt work, mid Feb pattern change failed, mid March epic backloader didnt work out.....so the April 20th pattern look MUST be the one!

Lol FV3 is amazing:

@ChescoPaWxman I have a spring ob....HOW BOUT THOSE PHIGHTIN PHILS?!?!

Gotta admire this model's enthusiastic approach. Has it ever been right tho? Ever?