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Ralph Wiggum

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About Ralph Wiggum

  • Birthday 08/06/1974

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    Warminster, PA

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  1. Exactly....seems like a very brief relaxation as high latitude ridging shifts around and the 3-wave strat event bears down on the N Hemi.
  2. I'm not so sure about that. EPS, which is a better tool to use at that range over the op, argues against any sort of sustained PAC flow imo. In the map you posted, the Euro OP *may* also be suffering from it's usual bias of hanging too much energy back in the SW US. However, the GEFS also has some reflection of energy sitting out there as well though since it is not nearly as defined it doesn't pump the heights along the SE US as much as the Euro OP. Looks like a split flow entering the W Coast with the mean trof centered near the GL. If you take a look at the EPS you can see the ridge on the West Coast and the development of the -EPO happening which continues past D10 and yields much more of a flow across the NW territories and into the N Plains eventually spilling Eastward. Couple this with the -AO showing up and any PAC airmass "flooding the US" you note would be very transient. It's not a bad look showing up in the LR for now.
  3. West-based -NAO taking shape and will help keep a trof over the Northeast for the next 5-7 days with reinforcing shots of BN every few days in the period sandwiched between normal/seasonal stuff. Nothing major on the horizon as the flow under the block is quite fast with nothing to really cause the flow to slow down and amplify significantly. Good cold shot coming second part of the weekend with some possible snow showers around Sun-Mon. Wave *could* finally amplify enough late in that period to toss more moisture into the region as blocking/ridging repositions itself from Davis Strait to SE of Greenland in the Western Atlantic. Farther into the LR the ensembles continue to show some reflection of a weak ridge in the NAO region so that teleconnection looks neutral to negative at times. Biggest takeaway I see out past 8 days on the ensembles is the development of a strong mean ridge positioned along the West Coast that extends way North into British Columbia with some nosing into the arctic circle. That leads to a mean trof in the Plains into the Eastern US downstream. Decent look if you like chances for cold and BN temps as the flow into the North central US is coming straight out of Siberia it appears. How deep the trof gets and how cold it gets in our area will be a direct function of the strength and location of the +PNA/-EPO ridge developing during the period. Might not be a coastal storm pattern brewing but certainly has a cold look. Has more of a clipper look to my eyes but we are looking 10+ days out and only pattern generalizations are evident, not specifics. General rule usually is get the cold in first, worry about moisture thereafter. Suffice it to say, Ive seen worse LR looks and I am getting eager to get December underway!
  4. He is surgical every year. The man never ages or skips a beat.
  5. Was wondering where you have been. I chalked it up to Flyer hockey letdown depression syndrome. Hackstol needs to switch the lines around. When your top line does 95% of the scoring, need to switch it up. Very depressing to watch.
  6. Thought it was ironic/funny that last night I made a post about how the LR has a nice look to it as we approach early Dec then BAM 6z GFS op spits out a potential 384 hr event on, yep, Dec 5......a date that holds alot of meaning to the veterans of wx tracking in the Mid Atl and NE. First true 384 hr digital snow threat of the season. Game mode - on :-)
  7. Didnt his first guess preliminary pre forecast discussion of his ideas in his prequel to the final outlook suggest the opposite though?
  8. GEFS are on board now. -EPO/+PNA ridging, weak -NAO reflection, plenty of cold air around. Source of cold is *almost* a CPF......getting there. But yeah, colder look for sure.
  9. Yes....and as Chuck noted, lots of shortwaves racing thru the flow under the -nao/pv configuration. I would assume the models are having *some* challenges handling this 100% correctly yet, so yeah, some uncertainly still looms.
  10. Really admiring the overall pattern as we head forward in the LR. Posted this in another subforum: https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Eamericanwx%2Ecom%2Fbb%2Findex%2Ephp%3F%2Ftopic%2F50490-December-2017-Long-Range-Disco&share_tid=50490&share_fid=13197&share_type=t December 2017 Long Range Disco
  11. I agree with your thinking. When I did my outlook in the Philly forum I noted that I felt the pattern was going to feature a return to more Alberta Clippers this year which we lacked severely the past few and this look is one way we see that come to light. Now as you said, there are a few ways both of our respective regions could see frozen out of this pattern....I am merely mentioning one as the fast N Jet via Nina coupled with a dip in the East thanks to the upstream -epo would lend credence to the clipper scenario as we head down the road. I like this look for early Dec....hope it holds.
  12. I went thru all 50 individual eps members and while I agree that there has been some better trends with the mean, there isnt a single eps member that shows this as a significant coastal storm unless you live out over the ocean, and even those couple of members have a rather stretched out slp. One thing I am seeing on most members is the speed of the kicker headed out of the N Plains. The N jet, while showing some amplification, just seems too progressive. Could one of the N vorts catch the S Jet and change the game as we get closer? Sure. If the Southern energy wasnt so far South/amplified into the GOM I would be more enthused because the -nao, even given the fast flow in the N Jet, is helping to amplify the N Jet but because the vorts are so far apart in each respective jet they dont have a chance to phase. This is actually a case of the SW Ridge being too strong imo and causing too much amplification in the S Jet. There is still alot of energy moving around around the N Jet and one of these could resolve and trend more favorably. My point is the euro suite isnt pointing toward a widespread Thanksgiving coastal storm unless you live in the SE or out in the open water.....for now.
  13. Also yielded an increase in striped bass and monster bluefish at least down my way. Best fishing in years!
  14. Euro says very La Nina like fast N Jet no coastal keeps any slp headed ENE and well OTS.
  15. Link?