Ralph Wiggum

All this hype on here and local news so I go to the mesos to take a gander and they are mostly showing a fropa with showers and hardly any convection Friday night and early Saturday. Confused.

Jan 20th pattern change didnt work, mid Feb pattern change failed, mid March epic backloader didnt work out.....so the April 20th pattern look MUST be the one!

Lol FV3 is amazing:

@ChescoPaWxman I have a spring ob....HOW BOUT THOSE PHIGHTIN PHILS?!?!

Gotta admire this model's enthusiastic approach. Has it ever been right tho? Ever?

Spring of azz

Just flipped to heavy snow here and starting to accumulate. Just kidding....heavy rain but this woulda been a hell of a deformation deathband if this was in the middle of a normal winter season.

Huh?

So long and good riddance "winter of azz". May this year be a reminder that nothing is ever a promise nor etched in stone. Congrats to those far NW burbs that did well and met their seasonal snowfall average while the rest of us nickel and dimed our way to BN futility.

Yep. Consistently incorrect was a recurring theme from this past winter.

Interesting. EPS actually improved with the overall look. Seems the GFS just wants to blow a cold front thru. Fv3 is a weaker progressive lp flying by underneath half of the region as is the CMC now. Icon is all over the place. Will give the euro and EPS points for consistency anyway tho they could be consistently incorrect as well.

The fact we are still tracking and it's the 2nd half of March is astonishing. The fact we seem to be repeating this March potential thing for several consecutive years is mind boggling to me. I remember when it was rare to even have anything to track this late. Now it seems commonplace tho I assume this is just some sort of decadal anomaly that we are seeing.

I guess that EPO ridge might be our helper to get the cold then. If that's what we need as one of the key ingredients that can be workable as we've seen numerous times in recent years the EPO ridging work to supply cold air source.

Who says you need a perfect pattern in late March to see significant snow in the Mid Atlantic? -PNA / +NAO / +AO / WAR / no 50-50 I'm not convinced this setup would work out but apparently several models believe it is workable: