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The Iceman

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About The Iceman

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    Are you prepared for what comes next?
  • Birthday 12/17/1990

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  • Location:
    Levittown, PA

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  1. Really liking tomorrow's severe weather threat. Timing is just about perfect for our area to maximize potential instability. Soundings look like they are signaling a tornado threat but it is largely based on how much instability builds before the front comes through. regardless, there will be multiple rounds of squall lines it looks like with the potential for low topped supercells. I can really see several tornado reports tomorrow if we can get that little bit of instability.
  2. if the 12z gfs comes true for next tuesday, it could be a very interesting severe weather day. set up screams low topped squall line and has absolutely perfect timing with the front coming through. Great shear in place, far enough from the low to stay out of the rain too so there should be enough instability. Could be a decent wind event. Of course the euro is a good 100-150 west with the low placement and would be much different timing wise. Still something to at least watch. The long range on both models continue to look promising as well with a ton of cold air up in canada and the first real cold shot coming through in the Halloween time period. Could be the first freeze potential. height anomalies continue to indicate a -NAO and +PNA during this period. Hoping to write up my winter forecast on Sunday.
  3. Long range on the euro ens and GFS ens are showing signs for a cooler than average pattern emerging in the beginning of November. Looks good for troughing in the east with a big ridge in the west. Things continuing to look good for an early and fast start to winter.
  4. I don't think that forecasters anticipated all of the cloud cover on both days. The clouds stuck around both days and kept temps in check... Can really feel the front came through this morning. Feeling pretty brisk outside and definitely cooler than 6-7 am. Tonight could be the first frost for N and W areas and definitely at least the coolest night of the season for everywhere else. Looks like the temps moderate again though by mid week and we are back to low 70's and high 50's lows until another weak front comes through and knocks temps down to average for a day before moderating again, rinse and repeat... Deep in the long range, the GFS has been showing a very strong cold front/low pressure system towards the end of the month with a shift in the pattern to cooler temps and seems to trend away from this transient pattern. Good to see some actual cold air beginning to show up along with some hints of a pattern change. Will be interesting to keep an eye on over the next few days, could be a decent severe set up as well with the above average temps.
  5. winter really isn't looking good on the euro monthly's and CFS. Looks like December has average temps which for here is hard to get snow until later in the month, then Jan is AN, with February very AN. The AO looks strongly positive through the entire winter as well. Leaning towards a BN snowfall winter at the moment especially since I don't think we will see a huge storm that drops all of our average snow at once like in 2015. If we strike out in December then it's almost certainly going to be an awful winter and I don't typically like most storm chances in December around here as there is usually a lack of cold air. The only thing it has going for it is that october is going to finish well above normal which for analog forecasting typically means a above normal snow and normal or below normal temps in winter but if the SE ridge fails to break down in time in December, this winter could be well below normal. I'm waiting another week or so before releasing my final call because there are still other things I want to look at but I think an average winter for the area would be great at this point.
  6. Anyone else planning to attend the SKYWARN session tonight in Burlington to become a spotter? If you go and see a younger guy with a shaved head come say hi.
  7. My grass went from one looking the best it has in years in early September to almost completely burned out with the next cut likely being the last until the leaves are a down. Looks like maybe early next week we may get a soaking rain but this week should be another one that is completely dry.
  8. crazy, got up to 91 down here. Will probably hit 90 again today. Really hope cooler weather is coming soon...I'm over this 90 degree stuff..
  9. I'm contemplating going to the shore tomorrow to see if I can experience tropical storm conditions for a period. Does anyone have any thoughts on where may be a good place to go? i'm thinking the Barnegat area at the moment. i know theres a chance that nowhere on the shore sees ts winds but I have 3 'admin' days I need to burn before the year is up so im figuring its a good excuse to take a day off.
  10. Yeah after today and tomorrow with just possible showers, the rest of the month looks very dull barring a miraculous Jose hit. Really just looks like seasonable temps and dry. Hopefully October will be the strong cold fronts coming through and possibly a Noreaster. This stretch of weather has been great for doing things but absolutely dull weather wise. I don't know how people in California put up with weather like this all the time. I like having some variety in my weather.
  11. Save for some irma showers on Wednesday, this week looks possibly the nicest all year. Highs in the upper 70's/low 80's with lows in the upper 50s/low 60s through next weekend and low humidity save for Wednesday as well. Really a nice pattern setting up for us the next 10 days. Will have to keep an eye on Jose though possibly throwing a wrench into this stretch of perfect weather.
  12. if Jose avoids getting picked up by the trough it'll be an ACE monster. It'll just sit in a decently favorable area for days. upwelling should prevent it from strengthening(plus who knows regarding shear) as shown by the nws intensity but it should have no problem maintaining hurricane strength. will be interesting to watch the next few days just to see if it misses the trough to take it out to sea. if that occurs then potential landfalls can be taken more seriously.
  13. wikipedia says this: "it is believed that if a Woolly Bear caterpillar's brown stripe is thick, the winter weather will be mild and if the brown stripe is narrow, the winter will be severe." no stripe to me means winter 17-18 will likely be a combination of the precip of 09-10 and 95-96 with the temps of 93-94. better stock up now for the impending snowmagaddon.
  14. I agree but much like the poster that was declaring miami clear and out of danger earlier and a guarantee to hit cuba based off of a west wobble it's a good idea to wait a few hours before declaring it it is definitively moving in that direction.