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The Iceman

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About The Iceman

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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    Levittown, PA

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  1. E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

    considering from 1/16 on to the end og the month there will likely be only 1 or 2 slightly bn days, that is impressive imo
  2. E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

    Yeah we are at the point now where it would take a massive torch the rest of the month to hit above normal.
  3. during bigger threat there definitely could be some janitors to clean up OT talk or move it to the correct thread. Seems every big threat there is alot of banter(even I am responsible of doing it sometimes) which eventually becomes addressed internally, but derails the threads at times. I don't think the forum needs heavy moderation, just a person or two to clean up threads during busy times. Just my opinion. It stinks having to go to other regions mods to move OT talk to another thread when they are already busy enough in their own sub during storm threats.
  4. E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

    Yep, pretty much the opposite of what typically happens in most nina years. Almost always the warmth/SE ridge is underdone and long lasting while the cold shots are overdone and transient. But this winter the cold has been verifying pretty well in the long range while the warmth always seems to fade to a slightly above normal 24 or 48 hours. Even when we hit 60 last week, I believe we still came out of the week below normal for this time of the year or at least normal despite massive AN departures that day. It just seems that this year, the cold and troughiness in the east seems to be the dominant pattern while the warmth always seems to be transient in nature and only serving to set up another long lasting cold period. Now the next 2 weeks may be above normal but I see it being much like mid to late December. Not a torch at all but overall no real threats as we get on the warm side of the storm track due to the lack of western ridging and a +NAO. But with cold air being reinforced and reloaded in canada and coming down behind those storms, it seems to me that the pattern will still be cold. Not below normal because when we go AN ahead of a storm, we will go well AN. But I think there is a very good chance we have more BN days, even if they are slightly BN or average, than AN days. Those AN days and departures will outweigh the BN departures. So while this period may finish +2 to +4, 9 or 10 of the 15 days may be normal or below normal. I don't think these next 2 weeks are completely dead and torch. We could easily just get lucky with timing, or a decent thump/ice storm with the right track and amount of cold air available in Canada even if it isn't centered over us. We may get shut out but with how the winter is going I could easily see another 1-3" storm or 2 in this period. Obviously as with any period that is transient, N and W has a better chance of squeezing something out in a borderline situation than the philly metro area and immediate burbs. No big dogs but a fluke like yesterday I would say there's a fair chance as all winter thus far, we have managed to get snow even in not so great set ups or patterns. I mean look at christmas eve and christmas... we got a trace on both days but easily could have gotten a 1-3" fluke out of it. I'm looking forward to the pattern completely reloading in February and my warm call in my winter forecast for february looks toast right now but I don't think we can count out the next 2 weeks as being a total dud. Unfavorable, yes but with there being cold air around, no real signal indicating a torch last more than 2 days, the opportunity to score on the heels of a front or something of that effect will be there. In other words, I wouldn't write off snow but any snow we do get will be a nickle and dime and not from a large scale synoptic event. Any system that amplifies is going to cut well west of us but if that happens it may set up a -NAO or 50/50 low down the line so it is a dual edge sword. Still an interesting period ahead despite the relaxation of the current pattern.
  5. My mod nominations would be Ralph, chescopawxman, and hazwoper. All 3 are old heads and I would trust to make the right decisions towards moderating this forum and keeping it on topic in busy times when we get many more casuals. Edit: Totally forgot Voyager too... I think he'd be good and he's another OG.
  6. January 16th-17th Observations

    I'm not sure if MT holly is counting yesterday in their storm total report this morning, but there were 2 reports of 5.5" in Lehighton area this morning at 7 am on the NWS reports sheet. I bet they got another inch or 2 after that report too.
  7. January 16th-17th Observations

    Finally tapering off here. Finished with 1.2". We take as we inch closer to average. I must say I did not see the snow lasting this long into the morning nor it accumulating as much as it did after the warm day yesterday and start as rain. Another event that over performed to my expectations. Now just about exactly 3 inches away from normal IMBY and well above normal YTD. Fingers crossed I make it to the season average....
  8. January 16th-17th Observations

    commute this morning was pretty difficult. Seems like the municipalities weren't expecting really anything at all either... lots of roads with snow on them even some major roads around here had slush. far more impactful here than the ice storm last week. I'm pretty surprised we are sticking to pavement despite the borderline temps and start as rain. This really should have warranted a WWA down here with the timing even though I don't fault mt holly at all with not going with it.
  9. January 16th-17th Observations

    Looks like 1/2" -1" outside and still snowing . Pretty surprised.
  10. January 16th-17th Observations

    down to 38 here. nice to see you guys n and w doing pretty well so far. a lot of storm left for you guys. 6" definitely in play imo
  11. January 16th-17th Observations

    I have my own office but the downside is that it doesn't have windows. From when I've gone to take a look though it seems we've had sun poking through pretty much all afternoon.
  12. January 16th-17th Observations

    Up to a scorching 43 degrees. I'm thinking my dusting call may bust too high down here...
  13. January 16-18 Threat

    my expectations are set at a dusting in lower bucks after the 12z suite. An inch would be a pleasant surprise, 2 inches would be a miracle. I think this will be an overperformer N and W into the LV. Allentown and Reading may start warm but temps will crash quick up there and there should be plenty of precip left for a good thump. Hope you N and W guys get an over performer like us down here have gotten all year long.
  14. January 16th-17th Observations

    We will be writing alot about rain tonight also. NAM really pushes waa into all of Lehigh County and Northampton now and I dont think the warm push is finished yet. We will see snow on the backside but doesnt look like alot. Not as much as advertised say 18 hours ago. yep I fully agree with you. I was talking more about "no accumulation" than pixie dust falling as what will likely be posted a lot. If trends continue, we may not even see a coating down here...it will end as snow but that may only last 15 minutes. I think you mentioned last march's storm above or in the other thread but I totally get the same vibe. There is nothing preventing warm air from surging inland and the meso's will likely have a better grasp on that. This may be the first event that trends away from us as opposed to trending better like every other event this year.