The Iceman

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About The Iceman

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    Give it up for mindless dribble
  • Birthday 12/17/1990

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Levittown, PA

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  1. Take this winter out back and old yeller it. I want it to get warm. No more of these crappy days in the 30's and 40's. If it isn't going to snow, might as well torch so we can enjoy spring. '
  2. Selling hard on the day 8/9 threat showing up on the models. +NAO with no blocking in sight. That storm is cutting up the apps as we get closer. We needed it to be 300 miles OTS at this juncture...
  3. That is not a neg NAO. That's a neutral NAO look that will likely trend positive as we get closer as it has most of the winter based on the graph above. Check out the GEFS today, it's about as positive as it gets in the LR. No blocking at all. This threat has apps runner written all over it. Would like to be wrong though.
  4. Fits the March pattern shift that last's til mid May. Hey at least we'd get our pity storm...
  5. Looks like a storm day 10 with some potential on the GFS. Been there a few runs now. Should be fun to watch this one go from an OTS miss to cutting over Chicago over the next 5 days. Or this will be the time the GFS nails it and the Carolina's/Southern VA sees a MECS which would actually fit with the theme of "snowing everywhere but here" of this winter.
  6. Had that fluke in Jan 2016 not occurred, we would be going on 6 straight met winters with 0 snow events >6". 7 out 10 met winters this decade featured no snow events > 6". PHL is now in their 4th straight met winter with zero snow events >6" with the largest snowfall being 4.1". A similar met winter drought came in the late 80's/early 90's. The winter's of 87-88, 88-89, 89-90, 90-91, 91-92, 92-93, 93-94 all did not record a single snowfall > 6" during met winter. Hopefully we are not in a repeat of that cycle...
  7. Yep, if we had even a little blocking or EPO help, this period would have produced at least one storm. Had we had a perfect look, it would have been comparable to 2010. But alas, we have literally everything going against snow at the moment and it doesn't look to change thru the end of the Month. Expect more of same. 1-2 days of seasonable cold, warm up 1-2 days, rain, and repeat.
  8. Bored this morning so here are some more PHL stats. Since 1884 there have been 21 winters with < 10" of snow at PHL. The average of the following winter was 24.6". The median was 21.8". 5 of the 21 were followed by another year of <10". 11 of 21 were above normal including 2 of the top 3 snowiest winters of all time. So statistically, next year should be decent.
  9. If we don't get a pattern shift in March, it should lead to a helluva severe season in March - April - May. These storm tracks with even a little bit of instability would be severe threat after severe threat. But as I said a few weeks ago, we'll probably punt the entire month of Feb, get a little hope in March that probably fails because it's March, then 8 weeks of cold, rain, and mud. I would be honestly happy if we slide right into spring come March after this winter, but let's be real, mother nature is going to stretch this monstrosity of a winter out as long as possible... Side note: It's growing more and more likely that I set my all time futility record with every day that passes with no end to the pattern in sight. Still an inch below the dreaded 97-98 winter that finished with 2.4 inches. This winter will be the 6th winter in my lifetime(most likely) with < 10" of snow. 01-02 we had 5 inches, 11-12 we had 5.5 inches, 91-92 we had 6 inches, 07-08 we had 6.5 inches. So about 1 in every 5 years of my life so far has been a complete ratter winter. But some good news, in those 29 winters, we've never had back to back winters of < 10 inches. The average of the winters that came after those 5 < 10" winters was 23.8" with a median of 14". So next year should almost certainly be better even if it could be "bad" overall.
  10. Awesome information, thank you! We are planning to hit one away game(against the Yankees), so I will keep this all in mind. I don't really care about autograph's, but I do think it's cool chatting with the players/maybe getting a photo and definitely would like to try and do that. Really looking forward to the experience!
  11. Lot's of moving parts but there is a chance of a fluke next week. It will likely fail but there is a chance we thread the needle. I mean we're due right?
  12. .9" of rain so far with this event. Pretty far off from the 2-3" totals being printed on the models even 48 hours out from the event.
  13. 5 miles south of there and I have half of that. Gradient winter
  14. Looks like it's going to fail this time. Weekend shortwave went poof overnight. Story of the winter.
  15. Southern Texas down to the Mexico border is going to have double the snow in the next 24 hours than most of us have had all season. At this rate, Cuba will see a WSW level event before we do...