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The Iceman

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About The Iceman

  • Rank
    Are you prepared for what comes next?
  • Birthday 12/17/1990

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTTN
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Levittown, PA

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  1. super humid and overcast out there. Light rain has begun. on another note there were 2 EF 0 tornados confirmed on monday's storms but none on wednesday. there were a few reports of 70MPH+ wind gusts though across the area on wednesday. We got clipped in lower bucks but the sky was very ominous to the south. pretty active week rain and storm wise. my garden, especially my zucchini, squash, and pumpkins, is loving the humid and wet weather. everything exploded with growth over the last week or so including the weeds that I had just pulled last weekend...
  2. look for the line to continue to intensify.. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rain, frequent cloud to ground lightning and increasing (potentially damaging) strong wind gusts may impact much of the Northeast urban corridor (DC to New York) by 3-5 PM EDT. DISCUSSION...Continuing insolation has warmed surface temperatures to around 90F through much of the urban corridor from Washington D.C./Baltimore through Philadelphia and New York City. This is contributing to sizable CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg, ahead of evolving upstream thunderstorm activity which continues to gradually organize and intensify. Through 20-21Z, a consolidating and strengthening cold pool associated with the evolving convective system seems likely to surge northeastward and eastward into the urban corridor, accompanied by increasingly widespread (and potentially damaging) surface gusts on its leading edge. This may be enhanced as convection encounters stronger southerly ambient low-level wind fields, as suggested by the latest Rapid Refresh, on the order of 40+ kt.
  3. I'm pretty surprised that south jersey was left out of the watch despite many areas remaining in the enhanced risk area. maybe just waiting to see how the squall line holds together before pulling the trigger. cell in York county needs a tornado warning imo. has a couplet that has been getting more organized with each frame and looks to be right moving.
  4. looking at the visible satellite it looks like some cells want to pop in s jersey/n Delaware out ahead of the main line and move along the delware river. will be interesting to see if any get their act together. the main line out to the west looks to really be ramping up. with ml cape above 1500 and approaching 2000 in spots along with the enhanced shear coming in the next few hours, it should continue to intensify. could be a nasty commute home.
  5. already incredible low level moisture in place. it's already 81 here and skies are mostly sunny. 79 degree few point as well. very good start for instability.
  6. best severe threat we be had all year. even with early initiation likely we should see multiple rounds of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. almost all the convective models have a strong squall line rip through this afternoon with broken cells after that through the evening. timing and shear are just about perfect for this area. spc with an enh risk right now but we may see a mod upgrade at noon depending on how much instability we have by then and if storms have initiated by then. the later we can hold off initiation the stronger the severe threat becomes but with a weak cap holding that off until 1pm would be a success. should be a great day of storms.
  7. marginal thunderstorm threat today and tomorrow for parts of the area. skies are completely overcast here though and dews are in the mid 50s. with no clearing expected I don't really think we 'll see a big storm threat despite the shear in place. areas to the west in our area stand the best chance with the better shear in place there and slightly better instability. tomorrow it looks like we 'll have better instability in place but much less shear. pretty much how it usually goes as a severe lover in SE Pa and NJ. i think a heavy shower with a rumble or two of thunder seems like the most likely outcome for most. no real threats on the horizon after tomorrow either. on a side note I've been loving the temps of late though. low to mid 70s is great for this time of the year and it looks to be in place for the foreseeable future. keep the heat away as long as possible I say.
  8. as soon as they posted it, the next scan came out and the couplet is pretty much gone. go figure.
  9. this cell needs a tor warning imo
  10. storm near Crowell is a beaut
  11. 50/30 tor probs
  12. i like the Waterloo area if i was chasing today. looks like they should see some clearing in the next hour so instability should be no issue. forecast soundings for later look real good in that area too. can't post it though since I'm on mobile.
  13. 27 tornado reports yesterday. definitely thought we'd see a few more but all in all a solid plains severe day in mid may. I think Thursday has the potential for a bigger outbreak. we could even see more than 27 today in Iowa with the wind fields in place there. this week may be the first real several day plains event this season where the potential actually looks to be realized.
  14. ^^^^ wow. of course we have no idea how well constructed those homes were but that looks like ef2 damage at minimum.
  15. I think there's a pretty decent chance that the next update brings a moderate risk for Iowa and if not 1300z then I definitely think by 1630z update we'll see it. today may very well end up being more active tornado wise than yesterday despite it not really being hyped by spc. parameters and shear look to be coming together and i dont think destabilization will be an issue as most of the area will be free from this yesterday's leftovers by 10 am at the latest. wind profiles definitely look better than what were in place in yesterday's mod risk area and while we won't see the high cape values like yesterday, there should be more than enough for sufficient instability. things look to get going at around 18z so it could be a busy afternoon.