The Iceman

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Everything posted by The Iceman

  1. Dryness continues at PHL. Currently ranked 127th out the last 136 years. Only 5.61" of rain on the year. Something to watch as we roll into spring/summer.
  2. just started clearing up here after a bit of light rain. Temp up to 65. Don't see us hitting the forecasted high of 79 barring some serious warming the next few hours.
  3. the meso's don't really show much of anything in the way of convection for most of the area. Pretty meh threat.
  4. 00z euro... inside 5 days... figures right after the first day of spring lol
  5. AV and Fletcher made a trade with God last fall: Philly's 19-20 winter and a winter to be named later in exchange for a Cup in the spring. It's tough in the short term but the long term should play out nicely.
  6. Yeah nice as in nice light rain with maybe a mangled flurry thrown in the mix. SFC is scorching tomorrow afternoon.
  7. Flyers baby! 7 in a row, 1 point out of first... could this be the year? They're getting hot at the right time...
  8. I'll be in florida so this one is legit. I'd start preparing now
  9. Had a gust to 48 MPH at my house, not too shabby. Picked up .4" of rain. We get the whiff this weekend that will bring some light rain/possibly snow tv showers. Next system after that looks to in the March 12th time frame. Since I'll be in Florida at that time, I'm predicting this is the one we finally get nailed with snow. Probably a MECS like the 6z GFS. lol
  10. Marginal risk today for severe thunderstorms in the area: ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A northern stream shortwave trough will translate from the MS Valley to the OH Valley today, and reach the Mid-Atlantic and New England tonight. An associated surface cyclone will deepen from the lower Great Lakes into New England, while a trailing cold front moves eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. In the wake of weakening morning convection and a remnant MCV near southern WV, a few cloud breaks and some low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak buoyancy in advance of the cold front from WV into parts of PA/VA this afternoon/evening. Broken bands of storms will be possible this afternoon along the front, and the convection will spread east-northeastward toward NJ by late evening. Assuming sufficient near-surface destabilization, wind profiles will favor organized bowing segments and supercells with some threat for isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two.
  11. same in Levittown. I thought a wicked cold front was moving through...
  12. give me this set up in late april/may... Would likely be a severe threat in March, but that would be an epic look with better instability like we'd see in April or May.
  13. Yeah hopefully we get another 02-03 winter after suffering though 01-02 all over again. Then again we could always get another 12-13 which was only a little bit better(still horrible) than 11-12. 4th straight year though now with 0 events >6" during met winter at PHL. Largest snowfall in that span being 4.1". Largest event including March is only 6.7" and we've only hit the 6" mark twice in those 4 years both being in March 2018. 2016 we had the HECS but by and large it was a dud winter that we got lucky by nailing our 1 window of opportunity. So really we're going on 5 straight met winter's that were absolutely brutal. You'd think something has to give next year...unless this is our new normal..
  14. Yeah S jersey has done better than PHL and N and W. PHL is at 4.51" on the year so far. Currently ranked 109th out of 136 years. Average to date is around 5.6" so about an inch below normal so far. A few active weeks should erase that though.
  15. Seems like a lot of the rain events of late have been under performing. Looks like more of the same tn. Was looking like a 1"+ of rain a few days ago, now looking like a half inch or less. Fairly below normal which isn't a surprise due to the lack of snowpack across the region. Next few weeks look active though so we may be able to put a dent in this. Still fires like the one on Tammany the other night may start becoming more frequent if we don't get some more soaking rains soon.
  16. I'm crossing my fingers we can get a similar system to tomorrow to occur a month from now. Would be a very interesting severe set up if that was the case. I think we're in for a decent severe spring with no signs of the pattern changing. That would be cool.
  17. Our NE PA friends may see some snow on the backside tomorrow. Perhaps even down to Allentown may see some flakes at the end. NAM gives Scranton 1-3".
  18. Take this winter out back and old yeller it. I want it to get warm. No more of these crappy days in the 30's and 40's. If it isn't going to snow, might as well torch so we can enjoy spring. '
  19. Selling hard on the day 8/9 threat showing up on the models. +NAO with no blocking in sight. That storm is cutting up the apps as we get closer. We needed it to be 300 miles OTS at this juncture...
  20. That is not a neg NAO. That's a neutral NAO look that will likely trend positive as we get closer as it has most of the winter based on the graph above. Check out the GEFS today, it's about as positive as it gets in the LR. No blocking at all. This threat has apps runner written all over it. Would like to be wrong though.
  21. Fits the March pattern shift that last's til mid May. Hey at least we'd get our pity storm...
  22. Looks like a storm day 10 with some potential on the GFS. Been there a few runs now. Should be fun to watch this one go from an OTS miss to cutting over Chicago over the next 5 days. Or this will be the time the GFS nails it and the Carolina's/Southern VA sees a MECS which would actually fit with the theme of "snowing everywhere but here" of this winter.
  23. Had that fluke in Jan 2016 not occurred, we would be going on 6 straight met winters with 0 snow events >6". 7 out 10 met winters this decade featured no snow events > 6". PHL is now in their 4th straight met winter with zero snow events >6" with the largest snowfall being 4.1". A similar met winter drought came in the late 80's/early 90's. The winter's of 87-88, 88-89, 89-90, 90-91, 91-92, 92-93, 93-94 all did not record a single snowfall > 6" during met winter. Hopefully we are not in a repeat of that cycle...
  24. Yep, if we had even a little blocking or EPO help, this period would have produced at least one storm. Had we had a perfect look, it would have been comparable to 2010. But alas, we have literally everything going against snow at the moment and it doesn't look to change thru the end of the Month. Expect more of same. 1-2 days of seasonable cold, warm up 1-2 days, rain, and repeat.