The Iceman

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Everything posted by The Iceman

  1. If I remember correctly, Jan 16 was like this, I don't think the models started printing out insane totals, like 20" plus, until we got inside 96 hours. I could be misremembering though.
  2. Very true. PdII had like 6 hours of sleet if I remember correctly and I still ended up with around 20". We may have had a hour or two of pingers in Jan 16, I don't remember tbh
  3. Nuked. Verbatim probably some mixing issues but I can deal with it and also not much room for error. Can't hug the coast too much closer or we see a lot of mixing and rain. The clown map sure is pretty though with that foot maximum over Ralph and I's houses.
  4. That's a red flag! Navgem leads the way in these set ups. Throw up your buns!
  5. Ukie is similar to last nights euro imo just a bit further N. strung out transfer so we don't really get a WAA thump and the coastal doesn't really get going until well offshore so it's just 24 hours of light snow lol not a great solution but shows the way we can fail as lvblizz explained above.
  6. One thing is that the ukie is way slower than the other models. Precip doesn't get going here until 00z monday. Other models have us starting 18z Sunday at the latest.
  7. While that could be the case, I believe it's too early to know the dynamics in play. I think there very well could be a nice CCB when the coastal forms that the models just aren't picking up on yet...Not to mention warmer than slightly normal waters in the atlantic, I think the coastal has a good chance of amping up quicker than progged especially if it stalls..
  8. Oh man the CMC is a textbook hit for these parts. Storm stalls just off the cape may coast and drifts ENE. No real precip type issues for anyone. Widespread 8-12". Add it to the scattershot of solutions but this is a great look. And I think it's a bit underdone on the precip...
  9. Totally agree, I think we will likely mix up here, almost every big storm does at a point. It will be how much we mix that determines if this is one to remember or not. But I also like where we sit at the moment for a winter storm warning level event.
  10. Live look in at the mid atlantic forum after the 12z gfs:
  11. With how south the Euro is currently, I actually don't mind where we sit on the GFS. If it trends just 50-75 miles south towards the euro, this area gets absolutely pummeled. I'd still take this as is for sure though even with the mixing issues.
  12. Coastal actually comes together.. but pretty messy transfer. 95 and immidiate suburbs go from thump to mix to rain back over to snow. Actually a pretty crazy long duration storm. Starts a little after 12z Sunday and by 06z Tuesday snow is finally beginning to taper off. Honestly not that bad of a run for us... Nothing 'historic' but that still looks like a fun storm. Overall I give that a "not bad". A 50-75 mile shift towards the euro and many of us are sitting pretty. As Ralph says, we take.
  13. This is completely anecdotal, but I find the icon to actually be a decent model when it comes to storm track and intensity but it doesn't pick up well on CAD at all and frequently scorches the boundary layer way too early or shows obvious mixing(sleet/frz) as plain rain. Again just something I've noticed model watching since it's been released but I don't have any data to back it up.
  14. Icon is a pretty good result but it doesn't stall the storm out for days... Thump to mix to dry slot verbatim. Winter storm warning level event. 4-8" for all. I would definitely take.
  15. It's a great model when it shows snow. Piece of shit otherwise though...
  16. Yep big jump on the eps last night. Im way more worried about rain/mixing then I am suppression. Regardless things look great for some snow at least. Details tbd.
  17. Take a blend of the euro and gfs and we are in the jackpot. I don't think it shakes out like that, but I like where we stand at the moment. Not sold on the HECS yet but biggest snow of the season could certainly be in the cards.
  18. Definitely way icier than I expected back home in Hopewell. Thin layer of sleet coating the ground that's frozen solid with the freezing drizzle. Untreated surfaces also getting a bit slick. We only got slightly above freezing, high of 32.8 according to my station. Now down to 29.6F. I bet it's going to be a slick night with a bunch of black ice.
  19. They've moved on to celebrating on the mid field logo down in the mid atlantic thread... Show some class!
  20. Hell of a mean on the eps... Unbelievable signal at that range...however notice there is clearly a cluster that favors SNE.
  21. Don't post this in the mid atlantic thread ...they've spiked the football and are doing a full team celebration in the end zone already
  22. Only 10 more runs of the euro until verification. What can go wrong!
  23. This entire forum needs this storm. All out blizzard from southern virginia up through maine. Textbook east coast noreaster wow.
  24. Holy shit, euro crawls up the coast slamming us in hours 168 and 174. Edit: Still ripping at 180 here. Edit 2: finally tapering off at hour 186. .. Can't wait to see the clown maps..