The Iceman

Tt looks the same? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2026022212&fh=1 I always use the 10:1 maps especially with these systems. You’re using the snow depth maps which again haven’t changed from 6z for those areas.

Huh? https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022212&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= shaved totals for berks and Lehigh valley, 95 corridor and NJ look just about the same as 6z

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 256 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY... .A major winter storm is expected to develop today, impacting the region with very heavy, crippling snowfall and areas of blizzard conditions. Precipitation will develop today, changing to all snow this afternoon and evening. The most severe conditions and heaviest snowfall will occur tonight, with snow gradually tapering off during the daytime Monday. Record breaking snowfall totals are possible. PAZ070-071-104>106-222100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.W.0002.260222T1200Z-260223T2300Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.260222T1500Z-260223T2300Z/ Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Chalfont, Doylestown, Lansdale, Philadelphia, Morrisville, Media, Perkasie, and Norristown 256 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 16 and 22 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Delaware, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks, Philadelphia, and Upper Bucks Counties. * WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches and result in isolated power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per hour. Locally higher snowfall amounts and significant drifting of snow possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. &&

I made sure to screenshot that, the current mt holly map is a thing of beauty

Sweet 90% for an inch but 10% for 29”. Anything’s possible

Yeah all forecasts and models show tomorrow’s snow as not accumulating or mixing with rain for most of the daylight hours. Doesn’t really start until late afternoon tomorrow.

Insanity… when was the last 2” qpf storm in Philly? Has to be since the summer. Even 1” qpf has been hard to come by of late. That fact makes me nervous.

Fun little contest for shits and giggles… which town in the mt holly CWA reports the highest total? Winner gets a pat on the back and a beer if you come pick it up. I’m going to go Wall Township, NJ at 31”.

Picked up 3 Floyds Arctic Panzer Wolf Imperial IPA, felt fitting. I’m pumped for tomorrow night. Could be hours of thunder snow.

Jealous as hell, I think I’d trade going to the gold medal hockey game for this storm. Root team USA on to victory!!

I’ve got an indica that rivals any of that

First and only call: shore points: 16-24”+ maybe a jackpot of 30” though I think 24” will be the lollipops. Potential for 30” is there though. I 95/295/195/476 corridor 10-16” I think there will be lollipops of 20” wherever the 2nd deformation band away from the shore sets up in here. Unfortunately closer to 10” or possibly even a “bust” of 7-8” whoever gets caught in between the 2 deformation bands. Lehigh Valley: 6-12” also depends on how far that deformation band makes it nw but I think at minimum 6” is looking like a good bet. Mickeytims house: 0” … we can only hope. i think this will be a region wide win. Some will just win more than others lol I expect tomorrow during the day will mostly be snow tv, possibly an inch or two on grassy surfaces but once the sun sets and intensity picks up it’s off to the races.

Looks like a deform band through the heart of bucks/montco/chester/Delaware counties and another by the shore. In between there will likely be a subsidence(sp) zone that sees less accumulations. You can see that hinted here. Massive move towards the gfs though, game on!

Don’t play dumb, you posted a snow map earlier for a storm that is synoptically different but it was a coastal scraper so you insisted it makes it an analog. I asked for the 500 mb comparison and you went silent so that right there tells me you know what you’re doing, you know just enough to be dangerous, but it doesn’t change the fact you are always on the side of less snow no matter what.

Where has anyone posted that 8-14” for Philly/burbs being unreasonable? Don’t be salty because you got called out on your debbing

I literally hope everyone except you sees snow.

Lol lmao even. You posted this on Feb.11 “If the detail about the cold source being minimal is true, especially after the cold streak that just happened, then the winter is just about over. The beginning of March is going to really torch, and by the time we get below average temperatures again (if we even do), it will be too late for snow.“

Sweet show the 500 mb set up, I can show a million fucking coastal storms, doesn’t mean they are anything similar.

Looks nothing like it

I think mt holly is spot on, 10 to 16” in SE PA seems right. 16-24” in Jersey with largest totals towards the coast.

Winter storm warning for 10-16” in my backyard, can’t wait to see the map in the morning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 PAZ070-071-101>106-212100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0002.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.260222T1200Z-260223T2300Z/ Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Doylestown, Morrisville, Kennett Square, Pottstown, West Chester, Oxford, Norristown, Media, Philadelphia, Collegeville, Chalfont, Perkasie, Lansdale, and Honey Brook 327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...A portion of southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 7 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per hour. Locally higher snowfall amounts possible. Blowing and drifting of snow, and whiteout conditions possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$

6z nam seems ok to me but I also just woke up to pee Image

Go to bed Ralph lol

That’s awesome, no sun angle to worry about, should get max ratios. Every good weenie has a snow light in their yard.

I’m out, I can handle a standard 4-8” storm, it’d be disappointing but still a win. A complete whiff like 01 though, I’d be done with this hobby for awhile…