The Iceman

Ensembles in this range over any OP. However, ensembles argue more for a Euro AI solution imo. I don't see this one cutting if that ridging on the 500 MB is legit over NE canada. Now with that you risk a sheared out mess or squash. Cold air is also marginal. I don't know, there's a lot going against it. Seems like blocking either eases up north and we rain or it doesn't and it's squashed south again. I'd rather it cut than be squashed tbh, there would definitely be flooding issues next weekend if something like the euro OP plays out.

I'm above normal on the entire season so I don't know what's slipping away. If you can't be happy during this winter, time to move away no offense

It’s the rebound storm. -NAO and ao are surging towards neutral around that time, like you said if the confluence holds we snow, and probably snow big. I will say the models have tended to overplay the weakening of the NAO and AO ridging in the long range all year long. This is the pattern change storm, I don’t expect any model to have a hold on it until at least mid week. I like the look on the Euro AI though and especially the ensembles in the 500 means.. we run the risk of raining but the pattern is ripe for a big juicy qpf storm which is well needed either way…

keep the trips coming!! I'm liking this

KDIX being down is really putting a damper on my weenie radar hallucinations

bro what? Euro is a textbook thump to light sleet/frz rain. Almost the same storm as two weeks ago.

The gfs is just not a serious model. Look at 00z last night to 12z today for the 11-12th… only about 1000 mile difference with the low

AI EPS still likes the 15-17th period.. if you are referring to the 11-12th, that's another northern stream clipper that changes every 6 hours... it's going to change every 6 hours..

I'm just glad to know we can still do long sustained cold in these parts... I was getting worried that transient cold was the new norm.

HRRR really weenies it up for tomorrow night

One storm at a time... like Birds mentioned yesterday, I'm excited for my coating to an inch early sat morning, it's trending better across all guidance.

The guy he punched deserved it...

Yeah but that day in the mid 40s is going to feel like 70!

That 14-16th threat has teleconnection support too... As me and Steve have been saying, many of our big ones historically come on the rebound of long duration -AO/-NAO/+PNA patterns but it still requires the right timing. I'm liking the long range threat though, definitely something to start tracking.

500 MB on the EPS and GEFS screams thump to ice/rain imo but obviously a wide range of outcomes possible at this range. With the west based NAO block showing up in that timeframe, any storm is going to have difficulty cutting to our west.

34F, legit felt nice out during my lunch walk especially in the sun.

I don't live and die with every model run...especially not the GFS. I check in once or twice a day usually after 12z in quiet periods like this. 11-14th period looks even more interesting today than it did yesterday imo. People also need to stop looking at the shitty GFS... Euro flexes the SE ridge in the day 10 like the GFS but we've seen that be overdone all year long. Euro AI at 6z was close to a decent miller b on the 10-11th followed by 2 more threats after that. Mid month looks like the precip opens up, whether or not we have the cold in place will be TBD, but it will be lurking close by. I don't think the pattern in that timeframe screams all snow, but it definitely looks wintry imo. I also would not sleep on Friday night/sat morning, would not be surprised if someone gets a quick inch or two at all.

I would also be shocked if we got totally shut out snow wise in February after such a great winter… even in our shittiest shit winters we still usually get something in February. In solid winters like this, it’s almost unheard of.. I would bet on at least another 6” total for most(average).

As much shit we give you drought guy, you've been pretty good identifying big threats this year in advance. Props where they are earned, I agree the next big qpf event will be in that period on the rebound.

I also don’t get the impatience, this winters been great. Most of 95 east is at or above average for the entire season. Relentless cold. If we get a clipper or two these next two weeks then another high qpf system on the rebound this year is a bonafide blockbuster year for most…

We had that warm up the beginning of the month that’s going to hurt the overall numbers. We had like a week of above normal irc.

13-14 or 14-15? I remember both being cold winters but I don’t think either had the intensity or longevity of this winter. I mean it’s looking likely we see - monthly departures all 3 core winter months, when was the last time that happened?!

I honestly have no opinion… seems a lot like patullo honestly. He’s either going to sink or swim. Don’t like he has no play calling experience. Gb offense has always seems meh too and love is overrated. It could work out but I think anyone that’s high or low on this move is full of it… no one knows how he’s going to do since he has no track record. Would have liked more experience

It’s seems like Mt Holly leans pretty heavily on the NBM based on the grids and afd’s, I could totally be wrong though and totally expect @MGorseto correct me if that’s the case

Looks like a parade of clippers beginning feb 3-4 but I honestly don't see a big dog until the next NAO/AO rebound(ie mid month), flow is too fast for anything serious to organize. We are either going to need another SWFE and all that entails(mixing) or deal with the 1-3/2-4" type deals the next 2 weeks. I know guidance shows a miller b threat 3-4th but I think the flow is just too fast for anything to come of it. Too many s/w's like that just screams interference for any coastals. We're better off rooting for some good clipper passes. Those can still deliver.