The Iceman

I just looked at the 12z guidance and timing really couldn’t be better for our area but especially for Lancaster and Lehigh valley I think we see the wind probs expanded NE next update. One of the better looking march severe threats I can remember and yes totally agree discrete supercells are not out of the picture. Also I think some places will end as snow as well. Monday afternoon and evening should be exciting. Gear up the generators especially with the wet conditions of late. edit: holy shit at the euro… it argues for a discrete threat ahead of the qlcs in the early afternoon. Ominous look.

We have no mods, party it up! I remember you from way back, welcome to Philly!

Said it a few days ago, but blocking signal for April is pretty strong at least the first half imo Problem is that late it really doesn’t matter at the coast. I think SNE or NNE is going to get smoked late month or early April though. Should make for a cool dreary first half of April for us.

Only Redsky can complain about seeing snow a day after it was 80… dude could live in Kamchatka and he’d find a way to complain about only seeing 10 feet while the town next to him got 11 feet.

Buddy I love winter more than 99% of this board but in my opinion she largely dead for our areas at this junction… I always do appreciate your optimism though, let’s do an April snow this year if it’s going to be dreary anyway.

Dude confidently in our subforum posted 10 days before our coldest January in a decade that it’d be above average by the end of the month… Then proceeded to cancel winter before our largest snow of the year… Oh yeah and said it’d be 70 by march 1st(it was in the 40s). After all that you kind of just know it’s safe to say you don’t have to take him serious and you’d think he’d learn not to make definitive statements… he’s going to be on the warm/snowless side of things no matter what. It’s a shame because he does actually have some knowledge… good luck to you guys today!

06z guidance backed way the hell off as I guess it finally realized A. It was 80 yesterday and b. This wraparound/anafront shit is largely a mirage like always… I'm with @MacChump , it’s porch weather season now

long range forecast based on the GEFS/EPS, cool down next week then I see another warm up towards the end of the month before a cool and dreary april. Heights start to build over Scandy late month and retro towards greenland by the end of March. April is at least going to start blocky imo.

the wrf-arw and arw2 both show it too... me personally I think it's cracked out. we'll see though. Would be pretty cool just to see flakes after it being 80 today.

timing is bad for most of the area imo, area's out west might get some wind damage though

The didn’t hit 80 in feb 2018? I think it was 2018. One of the feb in the late 2010’s tha completely torched. I swear they hit 80.

We finally hit 70! High of 72 here, nice day of false spring. Going to be hilarious when it gets cold again next weekend. Soak in the next 3 days because spring is looking toast after that for a bit.

Clouds breaking, sun is shining now and quickly up 65F. I think we make a run at 70 today

You realize that’s perfectly possible with a back door cold front right? ENE wind off the ocean. Somehow I doubt Vermont is seeing a heavy marine influence

Glad I didn’t book a tee time tomorrow last Monday. Would have been a cold one

I just heard thunder! It’s officially spring!

No snow in October or November, it got above freezing on Christmas, 0 polar bear sightings and we didn’t even get a lake effect event. Final Grade C -, maybe next winter will deliver

C winter at best. We didn’t get 80” of snow, it got above 50 that one day in January, and it rained today. It wasn’t the winter Jay’s Peak, VT experiences so it’s trash honestly.

GFS is hilarious, we get back door cold fronted this entire weekend now. First truly warm day isn't until Tuesday then we get backdoored again on Wednesday. Watch us not even hit 70 on this stretch now lol

I believe you said 70 by March 1st. It was in the 40's that day FYI. I'm skeptical we hit 70 even this weekend but we shall see, you may end up being right that it gets warmer in spring, gutsy call and all.. no one said 2 snow events you again are putting words in peoples mouths. Heisy is highlighting a period of possible interest not saying there's going to be 2 snowstorms. It snows on average 1/4 March's here, deal with it.

Nope it has never snowed here in late March, never happens

Next two weeks are looking more wet than anything else. Drought is going to be busted by mid month. You can tell the pacific and gulf moisture feed aimed at our area on the ensembles. I’d expect 2-3 1”+ qpf events in the next 2 weeks.

Damn I missed the snow or sleet to start. Or it was just rain the entire time

Shocker with the water temps. I know people want the warmth, I’m among them, but it’s going to be a struggle to see serious sustained warmth.

Probably the last night or two with partial snow cover. Remarkable that we’ve had cover since 1/16. 45 days. Highly unlikely we make 50 with the rain and temps the next few days but still a month and a half straight of snow cover here. Another rarity around here.