The Iceman

.4” overnight and into this morning. 2.5” on the storm. Still light rain/misting this morning.

2.1” on the storm 7.2” on the month

.6” this morning looks like a lull in precipitation/spotty showers mostly this afternoon before maybe another slug of moisture overnight? Winds have also died down.

Maybe it’s just because there’s still so many leaves but it sounds like the wind is overperforming out there… wish I had an anemometer. Trenton airport has gusted over 40 several times overnight though which is pretty impressive this far inland especially since it’s not the peak. Saw some impressive gusts at the shore too think the highest I saw was 77 mph.

CMC and GFS took a step towards the EE solution but it's crazy how far off they remain from the euro/icon/NAM. Euro leading the way would be quite the coup, no other model was even close at day 4.

The old EE rule in effect now... would be crazy tidal flooding I would think with the prolonged NE fetch.

It is actually insane the amount of model spread we have 48 hours out. Euro/euro AI continues to give most of the area a legit northeaster, GFS/CMC continue to be a glancing blow. ICON/`NAM have moved in the EURO camp. The RGEM is in the GFS/CMC camp. If this was snow, people would be losing their minds lol

Trash model

.4” overnight/this morning 5.5” for September

All he does is win, same with Sirianni. I don’t care what it looks like, anyone you replace them with is just not going to replicate that success. It’s the golden era of eagles football. That was one of Hurts best passing games imo, first pick was bad but I see the intent, he was trying to put into a tight space and got burned… second pick wasn’t his fault at all, that’s a TD if the o line can block. He made some big time throws yesterday though and that should only improve as he gets more comfortable in the system.

1.3” yesterday. 5.1” on the month. Pleasant day today and should remain so the rest of the week. I turned off the AC a day too early on Saturday and needed it for the humidity yesterday but back off for the foreseeable future, hopefully until 2027!

Next week looking wet... I don't have my official total nearby for the month but I believe we are already at 5" or so. Could we get back to back months of double digit(10"+) rainfall? The drought has been beaten back big time this summer, crazy this was the drought map just 3 months ago! to now:

I'm pretty sure it's a GFS long range bias... It's been spitting out fantasy range hurricanes in that region for like the past month it feels like. Goes away a few days then pops up again in that same time frame.

2.7” this morning, seems like every major precipitation event significantly overperforms of late

Great point especially when you consider our last super nino in 2015-2016. That winter would have completely sucked but we got that HECS that brought 20-30” to everyone and that was an above normal winter across the board for everyone despite it being torchy overall. I think this winter will be similar. Lots of warm periods but lots of precipitation and that comes with a larger than normal chance of a big storm. If we get a big storm(12+”) it will be an above normal winter here and if not it’ll be below normal. I like looking at the last 3 supers around here(15-16, 97-98, 82-83), 83 and 2016 had the HECS so they finished above normal, 97-98 we couldn’t catch a break and finished below normal). It’s going to depend on the big dog, we won’t nickle and dime to normal or above normal this year imo. Appreciate the convo you started with GaWx! Will be watching the PDO as we enter fall.

The HRRR has that MCS is central PA dying before it gets to the CWA, after that today looks mostly dry on the models. The mesos brings more overnight convection in though tonight. More scattered convection possible on friday as well before a beautiful weekend kicks off. Seriously should be one of the nicest labor day weekends in recent memory.

.6” overnight. 1.5” to start September

HRRR showing an overnight threat as 2 separate MCS impact the area. One in the 06z time frame that takes the just about the same line as earlier and another towards daybreak through SE PA and NJ. RGEM also shows overnight convection.

The issue is going to be that MCS in central PA, that's going to completely work over the atmosphere. The clouds should burn off by late morning, but that complex will arrive sometime between 1 and 2 on its current trajectory. Maybe a couple severe warnings but that's going to limit the severe for everyone. Even SPC isn't sure though as the best forcing doesn't arrive until way later. This day was always going to be about how the next MCS forms out west.

Awesome lightning show, had several really close strikes but I had to have been out back watching it for like a hour before hand. Picked up .7” in like 10-15 mins.

I’m even further north(20 miles NE of Philly) and have had 2 seasons with 1.5” or less since 2019-2020. (2019-20 and 22-23)

Another casual 1.3” overnight. 12.9” for August now

3.25” storm total assuming no more. Round 2 this evening was pretty intense lots of street flooding around the area during the height of it. 11.60” in August now

There's got to be prolific flash flooding ongoing right now in S Jersey and DE. Storms training over the same area, already 5" in spots on radar. Going to be a long afternoon down there. We had just shy of an inch back at home in Levittown(.9") through 2 different storms. Here in Trenton, we had several periods of heavy showers but nothing too long lasting.

December preview