The Iceman
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Everything posted by The Iceman
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https://x.com/thehurricanenet/status/1844064618856976796?s=46&t=HjhTZpQDb4qolHVJRtuc7w I forget how to embed tweets but this is pretty nuts…
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Follow the NWS forecast for your area... not crappy weather.com.
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105 TJ
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Red October more like dead October amirite??
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One of my good friends has a condo in Indian rocks beach and every time I go down there, I think to myself how screwed that area is if a major hurricane ever landfalls there. Lots of homes and businesses without pilings and I’m pretty sure Helene washed out all of the dunes. That area will be unrecognizable if it landfalls in say Clearwater.
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The visible sat loop this morning is mesmerizing. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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No blizzards this winter only haboobs.
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My aunt and uncle live in Live Oak, FL and got hit really hard for the 2nd time this year. They had crazy flooding and some tree damage from Debby now tons of tree damage from Helene. This was just around their house.
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3 straight days with rain wow! .43" on the week. .53" on the month.
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Anyone in the Greenville-Simpsonville, SC area? My parents are supposed to drive from Philly to Roanoke, VA this afternoon to go to Simpsonville tomorrow to see my grandparents. My grandparents don't drive so I can't rely on them to tell me how bad it actually is down there. Is it even going to be possible for my parents to get into Simpsonville tomorrow or are there many roads closed in the area? I've been on the phone all morning trying to convince my Dad not to leave until Sunday but not really getting far, I don't think he realizes how hard they got hit.
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I know, sorry I should have used a sarcasm emoji
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Nope, stuck on .1" for the month. Had a trace yesterday and a trace on saturday, nothing major. Is this a good signal for winter 2024-25?
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Driest September on record going back to 1900 for the Trenton area is .19” in 1941 and they currently have .03”, could be in jeopardy of falling.
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Looking like king GFS completely schooled the euro on this one. Had a few sprinkles on my way into work this morning though they honestly could have just been bugs hitting the windshield. Absolute shutout here. Dry streak rolls on.
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I have .1” on the month so far. Driest September on record could be in reach if this is a complete whiff like the GFS CMC ICON and NAM now show. Nothing really on the horizon after this either.
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I'd say seasonal forecasting for winter is a straight crapshoot these days with warm and snowless becoming more or less the default state. I mean last year was pretty unanimously supposed to be an average to slightly above average winter that was well below normal. Most expected 2020-2021 to be mediocre and we ended up OK. ENSO is no longer a real good indicator for how winter is going to behave and hasn't been for like 10 years now. Pretty much just have to wait until the end of November and assess as it unfolds. If you go warm and snowless around here on a seasonal outlook, it's going to end up correct more often than not. The climo around here has always been feast or famine when it comes to snowfall and the late 2000's/early 2010's skewed the perception of how many good snow years we actually get.
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Just measured a 51 mph gust on my PWS. Pretty impressive. Lots of leaves and small branches down around here. Will be interesting to see if more wind mixes down to the surface as the line pushes through. Tornado threat looking negligible at the moment save for maybe a brief spin up.
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.4” overnight, 4.55” since Tuesday.
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.85” after that last heavy shower, 3 day total so far this week 4.15”.
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3.05" total yesterday, Looks like the majority of Debby's rains look to be in central PA. Maybe a tornado threat though Fri/Sat?
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Will be interesting to see if that stuff out by Lancaster holds together, could get real bad if it does.
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I angered the rain gods, 2.75” in the bucket the last hour and a half.
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lol can’t make this shit up, fringed every which way
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Had a cell decay to our west about an hour ago that dropped .05”. Everything else looks like it’s sliding north or decaying. Good start to the “rainy week”. Glad I told my parents to not skip their concert tonight, they were about to waste $300 dollar tickets because every weather outlet in the area was making it out to be a complete region wide washout when it was always looking like a localized event. Don’t know why they always say 80% chance with 1-2” likely when it should be 50% chance with 1-2” locally.
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Never doubt king euro inside 84 hours. Dreadful performance by everyone else.
