The Iceman

I'd say seasonal forecasting for winter is a straight crapshoot these days with warm and snowless becoming more or less the default state. I mean last year was pretty unanimously supposed to be an average to slightly above average winter that was well below normal. Most expected 2020-2021 to be mediocre and we ended up OK. ENSO is no longer a real good indicator for how winter is going to behave and hasn't been for like 10 years now. Pretty much just have to wait until the end of November and assess as it unfolds. If you go warm and snowless around here on a seasonal outlook, it's going to end up correct more often than not. The climo around here has always been feast or famine when it comes to snowfall and the late 2000's/early 2010's skewed the perception of how many good snow years we actually get.

Just measured a 51 mph gust on my PWS. Pretty impressive. Lots of leaves and small branches down around here. Will be interesting to see if more wind mixes down to the surface as the line pushes through. Tornado threat looking negligible at the moment save for maybe a brief spin up.

.4” overnight, 4.55” since Tuesday.

.85” after that last heavy shower, 3 day total so far this week 4.15”.

3.05" total yesterday, Looks like the majority of Debby's rains look to be in central PA. Maybe a tornado threat though Fri/Sat?

Will be interesting to see if that stuff out by Lancaster holds together, could get real bad if it does.

I angered the rain gods, 2.75” in the bucket the last hour and a half.

lol can’t make this shit up, fringed every which way

Had a cell decay to our west about an hour ago that dropped .05”. Everything else looks like it’s sliding north or decaying. Good start to the “rainy week”. Glad I told my parents to not skip their concert tonight, they were about to waste $300 dollar tickets because every weather outlet in the area was making it out to be a complete region wide washout when it was always looking like a localized event. Don’t know why they always say 80% chance with 1-2” likely when it should be 50% chance with 1-2” locally.

Never doubt king euro inside 84 hours. Dreadful performance by everyone else.

Finally got hit flush for once, 1.5” of liquid gold. Best thunderstorm of the year by far. Nothing severe but great light show and a good soaking.

I’m telling you guys the Levittown rain shield is a real thing

0 for 2 today oh well, maybe Wednesday will deliver(doubtful)

Dry thunderstorm here, heard sirens going off shortly after this boom. Probably started a fire.

Looks like I’m going to get the 7-10 split perfectly. My backyard is cursed. Maybe the stuff out west will hold together(doubtful)

Had one little 5 minute shower overnight to bring the storm total to .12. Sure looks like that will be the final total. Brings the total for the month up to .61.

Can the NWS perform a rain dance, thanks!

.07 today… I guess better than nothing. I’m doubtful on the overnight stuff. Probably well west. I don’t understand the seemingly dry slot right up and down 95 when it’s humid as all hell.

Yup that’s what it’s done all morning here. The showers get to the del river then poof. Probably have gotten a whopping .05 tops. Looking like another rain bust as the storms are setting up to train over s jersey and somehow to the west of us. We are going to have desert sand dunes in lower bucks by August at this rate.

83F/77 DP. Once the clouds break, today is going to be pure hell again. Meso models backing off on significant rain for tonight and Friday, what else is new?

La Nina is already kicking in... Hot and Dry is a staple of Nina summers. I think we just need to accept our new desert climate.

I just got back from Pawley’s Island, SC on Friday and it was less hot/humid there than it was here last week/this weekend I had cut the grass right before I left and it’s still the same height as 10 days ago.

You just can’t make this up

Nothing would be my guess

Lol I don’t get it for most of se pa and nj from Mercer and south. That Main convective line is clearly going northeast more towards maybe Quakertown but mostly Lehigh valley. There’s no way in hell the stuff out by Pittsburgh will be anything of note by the time it reaches here. I’m with you, watering the garden and lawn once the sun sets.