The Iceman

As much shit we give you drought guy, you've been pretty good identifying big threats this year in advance. Props where they are earned, I agree the next big qpf event will be in that period on the rebound.

I also don’t get the impatience, this winters been great. Most of 95 east is at or above average for the entire season. Relentless cold. If we get a clipper or two these next two weeks then another high qpf system on the rebound this year is a bonafide blockbuster year for most…

We had that warm up the beginning of the month that’s going to hurt the overall numbers. We had like a week of above normal irc.

13-14 or 14-15? I remember both being cold winters but I don’t think either had the intensity or longevity of this winter. I mean it’s looking likely we see - monthly departures all 3 core winter months, when was the last time that happened?!

I honestly have no opinion… seems a lot like patullo honestly. He’s either going to sink or swim. Don’t like he has no play calling experience. Gb offense has always seems meh too and love is overrated. It could work out but I think anyone that’s high or low on this move is full of it… no one knows how he’s going to do since he has no track record. Would have liked more experience

It’s seems like Mt Holly leans pretty heavily on the NBM based on the grids and afd’s, I could totally be wrong though and totally expect @MGorseto correct me if that’s the case

Looks like a parade of clippers beginning feb 3-4 but I honestly don't see a big dog until the next NAO/AO rebound(ie mid month), flow is too fast for anything serious to organize. We are either going to need another SWFE and all that entails(mixing) or deal with the 1-3/2-4" type deals the next 2 weeks. I know guidance shows a miller b threat 3-4th but I think the flow is just too fast for anything to come of it. Too many s/w's like that just screams interference for any coastals. We're better off rooting for some good clipper passes. Those can still deliver.

You threw in the towel 3 days ago what do you mean

The off hour euro has been doing this the last two days. Ticks NW off hour before going back east at 00z or 12z. Encouraging but would love to see 2 consecutive runs.

Not too cold for Boston apparently lol

EPS says don't throw in the towel for a pack refresher

BTW OP runs from what I saw, not what we wanted to see at 12z. I'm going down with the ship though, WPC as well as the local NWS have harped on 72 hours out being the period where many of these storms drift NW. It's so friggin close. I don't know how anyone from 95 E, can throw in the towel, even if it's only a few inches. Also some winters it just wants to snow... I still think this comes back some.... at least I know if we were bullseyed right now it would 100% drift NW

Another side note, but crossing the Delaware into Trenton this morning I noticed it's almost completely frozen all the way across. I have to imagine by the end of this weekend it will be completely frozen. That doesn't happen often. Will have to watch for Ice jams by the falls whenever the thaw comes.

Euro brings snow into our area now 06z 00z

CMC near miss, weird weird surface reflection though. Has like a triple barrel low at hour 96. Convective feedback?

Crazy gradient. But just that tick, I went from 1 inch at 18z to 5” at 00z. Most of south jersey gets pummeled. I can’t stay up for the euro tn but encouraging that the gfs keeps improving…

Hm I have no idea, my dad’s records only go back to 1977, he started keeping track as a science project in high school and just kept with it… not really a weather nerd like me but he loves snow lol. In our combined tally of snow totals, 95-1996 was our snowiest winter at 75.6”. Do you happen to know what the tally for 57-58 was?

I was thinking this in Trenton today…absolute nightmare still! But other areas are really stacked high too. Another foot even and it’ll be really dangerous driving around. I saw dump trucks full of snow going somewhere, I know there’s a snow dump off Perry street in Trenton. Do they still dump it in the Delaware river? I think I remember that being a thing before.

My 30 year average in Levittown was 22.3”. I would say 30” for DYL is not far off.

besides the possible storm, anyone else excited to potentially go below zero Thursday and Friday night? I can’t remember the last time my area went below zero let alone twice in a row… serious cold. Cold of yore.

Absolutely i can easily at the very least see this being a little 1-3/2-4” refresher as we get grazed like how the gfs is right now….

I’ll take a hold, several encouraging things from that run. Tilts negative earlier, just need the confluence to lighten up a little and that run is a mauling.

SNJ gets blasted especially the shore.

New WPC discussion is a fantastic read

FYI that was a positive bun what are the key differences between the GFS and EURO, because it doesn't look far off at all at 500 MB.