The Iceman

HRRR really weenies it up for tomorrow night

One storm at a time... like Birds mentioned yesterday, I'm excited for my coating to an inch early sat morning, it's trending better across all guidance.

The guy he punched deserved it...

Yeah but that day in the mid 40s is going to feel like 70!

That 14-16th threat has teleconnection support too... As me and Steve have been saying, many of our big ones historically come on the rebound of long duration -AO/-NAO/+PNA patterns but it still requires the right timing. I'm liking the long range threat though, definitely something to start tracking.

500 MB on the EPS and GEFS screams thump to ice/rain imo but obviously a wide range of outcomes possible at this range. With the west based NAO block showing up in that timeframe, any storm is going to have difficulty cutting to our west.

34F, legit felt nice out during my lunch walk especially in the sun.

I don't live and die with every model run...especially not the GFS. I check in once or twice a day usually after 12z in quiet periods like this. 11-14th period looks even more interesting today than it did yesterday imo. People also need to stop looking at the shitty GFS... Euro flexes the SE ridge in the day 10 like the GFS but we've seen that be overdone all year long. Euro AI at 6z was close to a decent miller b on the 10-11th followed by 2 more threats after that. Mid month looks like the precip opens up, whether or not we have the cold in place will be TBD, but it will be lurking close by. I don't think the pattern in that timeframe screams all snow, but it definitely looks wintry imo. I also would not sleep on Friday night/sat morning, would not be surprised if someone gets a quick inch or two at all.

I would also be shocked if we got totally shut out snow wise in February after such a great winter… even in our shittiest shit winters we still usually get something in February. In solid winters like this, it’s almost unheard of.. I would bet on at least another 6” total for most(average).

As much shit we give you drought guy, you've been pretty good identifying big threats this year in advance. Props where they are earned, I agree the next big qpf event will be in that period on the rebound.

I also don’t get the impatience, this winters been great. Most of 95 east is at or above average for the entire season. Relentless cold. If we get a clipper or two these next two weeks then another high qpf system on the rebound this year is a bonafide blockbuster year for most…

We had that warm up the beginning of the month that’s going to hurt the overall numbers. We had like a week of above normal irc.

13-14 or 14-15? I remember both being cold winters but I don’t think either had the intensity or longevity of this winter. I mean it’s looking likely we see - monthly departures all 3 core winter months, when was the last time that happened?!

I honestly have no opinion… seems a lot like patullo honestly. He’s either going to sink or swim. Don’t like he has no play calling experience. Gb offense has always seems meh too and love is overrated. It could work out but I think anyone that’s high or low on this move is full of it… no one knows how he’s going to do since he has no track record. Would have liked more experience

It’s seems like Mt Holly leans pretty heavily on the NBM based on the grids and afd’s, I could totally be wrong though and totally expect @MGorseto correct me if that’s the case

Looks like a parade of clippers beginning feb 3-4 but I honestly don't see a big dog until the next NAO/AO rebound(ie mid month), flow is too fast for anything serious to organize. We are either going to need another SWFE and all that entails(mixing) or deal with the 1-3/2-4" type deals the next 2 weeks. I know guidance shows a miller b threat 3-4th but I think the flow is just too fast for anything to come of it. Too many s/w's like that just screams interference for any coastals. We're better off rooting for some good clipper passes. Those can still deliver.

You threw in the towel 3 days ago what do you mean

The off hour euro has been doing this the last two days. Ticks NW off hour before going back east at 00z or 12z. Encouraging but would love to see 2 consecutive runs.

Not too cold for Boston apparently lol

EPS says don't throw in the towel for a pack refresher

BTW OP runs from what I saw, not what we wanted to see at 12z. I'm going down with the ship though, WPC as well as the local NWS have harped on 72 hours out being the period where many of these storms drift NW. It's so friggin close. I don't know how anyone from 95 E, can throw in the towel, even if it's only a few inches. Also some winters it just wants to snow... I still think this comes back some.... at least I know if we were bullseyed right now it would 100% drift NW

Another side note, but crossing the Delaware into Trenton this morning I noticed it's almost completely frozen all the way across. I have to imagine by the end of this weekend it will be completely frozen. That doesn't happen often. Will have to watch for Ice jams by the falls whenever the thaw comes.

Euro brings snow into our area now 06z 00z

CMC near miss, weird weird surface reflection though. Has like a triple barrel low at hour 96. Convective feedback?

Crazy gradient. But just that tick, I went from 1 inch at 18z to 5” at 00z. Most of south jersey gets pummeled. I can’t stay up for the euro tn but encouraging that the gfs keeps improving…