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The Iceman

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Everything posted by The Iceman

  1. The Iceman
    Yeah I came of age in the warmer years, it’s always been this sleet crap for me
  2. The Iceman
    Go with what Mt. Holly says, none of us in here are as qualified as those guys. Really though there is little difference practically between 5-10 and 6-12". Maybe a tenth of freezing rain at the end but I wouldn't expect serious ice problems.
  3. The Iceman
    20 years ago was VD 2007. That had a stronger primary further west but then again that's why we are going to get way more snow with this one. I need to go back and look at the surface maps, but this storm is starting to remind me of that one with the huge high overhead. Edit: found it! look familiar? Like I said not as strong with the primary as 07 but looks fairly similar set up to me.
  4. The Iceman
    I think the 2000's/early 2010's really shifted perspectives to how climo actually is in this region... Philadelphia itself has only gotten a 10" or more snowstorm 31 times since 1883. Averages out to like 1 every 5 years. It really isn't a common occurrence, never was.
  5. The Iceman
    I disagree with this wholeheartedly. Climo has always favored NW areas of this region for as long as I've been alive. Hell the Fall Line definition in MT holly has always been N and W of 95.
  6. The Iceman
    This one's 10 to 15"
  7. The Iceman
    Still sticking with this call and I don't imagine I'll change it so this is really final call. Someone in the Pocono's will probably get 20".
  8. The Iceman
    It also beats back the sleet line. 18z it's pushing into the burbs, 21z its beaten back below freezing. I think it's showing it will be rate dependent there whether you stay snow or not.
  9. The Iceman
    Damn you should have left a day early, the way this ones trending, Vermont is going to be the place to be for this one.
  10. The Iceman
    You’re not wrong, in this area most of the time the mixing is way stronger than modeled. However, most of the time we also don’t have a giant arctic high providing highs in the teens either. I totally get the “pessimism” so to speak though, I just think that this situation is a bit different than other events where we mix. We shall see though!
  11. The Iceman
    Trust the pro’s
  12. The Iceman
    Gfs isn’t alone, the NWS blend has also been showing big totals as well and pretty much all snow.
  13. The Iceman
    It has been nothing if not consistent. The blend has barely waffled the last 24 hours.
  14. The Iceman
    NAM is a crushing. This is all pre sleet https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2026012218/namconus_asnow_neus_27.png
  15. The Iceman
    In the pro's we trust!
  16. The Iceman
    @Ralph Wiggum Mt holly says conservative calls are for squares!
  17. The Iceman
    EPS still looking good...
  18. The Iceman
    Looking at some of the soundings, I just really question that would be freezing rain honestly. I don't see it. Temps are like 18-19F for most of the area and even the warmest levels are just barely above 0c,they aren't scorching. Looks more like sleet in my opinion.
  19. The Iceman
    I went to 4 different spots last night and couldn't find any. Ended up settling for pool salt at wal-mart(it does the same thing, just not as concentrated). 20 lb bag for like 9 bucks
  20. The Iceman
    I’ve personally never witnessed freezing rain with temps in the teens(may have happened in 94 i don’t know I was 3) but that’s what the euro shows. Yikes.
  21. The Iceman
    Euro is much drier, hopefully a blip. But significantly cuts back the thump by .2-.3 LE.
  22. The Iceman
    Was wondering that myself, thank you for clarifying! Unbelievable how bullish the NBM is right now. The NBM is a blend of the GFS/GFS ensembles, NAM nest, and euro/euro ensembles correct?
  23. The Iceman
    This is including the next weekend storm too... but yeah "Gigiddy".
  24. The Iceman
    It had the low end for me(TTN area) at 10" and the high end at 23". 50% chance of 18" or more... I have to think both go down next briefing but who knows. That was extremely bullish though I agree.
  25. The Iceman
    pretty impressive this is still so high.. Isn't the NBM a blend of the GFS, GFS ensembles, NAM nest, and Euro/euro ensembles?
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