The Iceman

I'd give DJF a solid C in my area. I didn't have much hope for this year and really thought we'd struggle to get to double digit snowfall so 17" was more than I anticipated. December sucked, I give that a F. I'd give Jan a solid B maybe even B+ with it being above average snowfall wise(one warning level event and one high end advisory event) and below average temps. February largely sucked outside of the advisory level super bowl Sunday storm which brought it up to a D. If we missed that storm though, I'd give it a F. Overall though I thought this winter could have gone a lot worse along 95. I can totally understand those of you in the N and W for thinking it's a D/F winter. This was a really weird season, not too many times you see SNJ get 30+" and the Lehigh valley sees around 10".

I still think the 9-10th time period bares watching. Secondary wave riding the boundary, high pressure is a good spot this time, but it's far from a slam dunk look. If it amplifies too much we flip to rain and if it doesn't amplify enough it slides harmlessly SE. Thread the needle set up, what else is new? Would be somewhat rare though to not get a single threat or even just flakes flying in March and overall cold air is still on the continent.

Crazy the difference 5-10 miles makes in these storms. Was pretty much just a cold rain storm down here in lower bucks. No real accretion despite temps hanging between 30-32 all night.

Next and possibly final period to watch this winter is going to be in the 3/8-3/13 time period. Similar set up as this storm that just passed but with better ridging in Greenland and in the AO region. If we are going to score this month, it's going to be from a follow up wave from one of these cutters that times with the cold air. First week of March looks like snoozeville though, doesn't look all that warm though save for a day or two.

Temp is down to 29.8 but the rain is too heavy and it’s just running off of everything. Warm temps leading in, definitely a factor. Don’t think we will see much accretion down here even though we are colder than progged. Areas n and w will probably see some issues on vegetation but I’m still pretty skeptical roads will have problems save for maybe far NW areas. Rain is going to be too heavy for that glaze to form on the roadways. Areas that start as snow/sleet and get a little sleet accumulation down may see some issues though.

Wow mostly sleet, not much freezing rain for anyone. That’d be good news.

30F/18 DP. A bit colder than the forecasted low of 33.

Currently 66F, some 70 degree readings popping up in S Jersey.

Already up to 60F. Cloud cover though may be the only thing preventing us from hitting 70 today. If the sun pops out, I think some area's especially around the city top 70 today.

Just my opinion, but I think this will be mainly rain for the 95 corridor. Don't think it will accrete too much even if the temp hovers around 31-32. Temps going to be 70 today and we don't fall below freezing until the event really starts and even then it's going to be 30-32F. Add in the heavy precip rates, and I just don't see much ice accretion on anything but especially pavement. Lehigh Valley/Pocono's is a different story, I'd be concerned if I lived up there.

Temp went to 42 down to 31 and easily had a 50 mph gust with that squall. Whitened the ground too. Neat little event.

Very true, gfs is likely overdoing the cold air push, however I still think this system will be more frozen than liquid. CAD should hold up well with that strong high to the N. Leaning towards more sleet than anything though right now for the 95 area and suburbs. Still an eternity out in time but right now, 1-3” snow thump to sleet to light rain/drizzle seems like a fair guess. Looks like a Lehigh valley special at this moment though they also likely change to sleet too, just think they will very likely be all frozen unless the models are way off with that high strength or position.

Flizzard conditions going on outside right now. Wiggum rule strikes again.

Trending towards the typical thump to mix ending as drizzle even with the track as west as it is. The majority of precip is looking frozen and should remain that way as long as that high stays in that position. NW of the fall line will do better but pretty classic CAD signature showing up at this time frame is encouraging, that typically gets stronger and more pronounced with time. Could be a solid event from 95 N and W. Potential for Lehigh valley to see their biggest event of the year.

68F out, can we hit 70?

upcoming pattern late month into early March is kinda similar to March 15... heights are more focused in the Alaska domain though which should provide more cold air... we made out like bandits during that time period

It's going to be a warm one today, already sitting at 58F at 9 am. Something tells me we are going to go above the projected high of 66F today and make a run at 70F.

Looking ahead, the 2nd half of the month warm up looks to be short lived. If we can head into the beginning of march with this look below, winter almost certainly hasn't shown it's last hand. We'd have a cold air source to work with even though we still don't have blocking. -NAO becomes less important in March with shorter wavelengths, most important thing is to have cold air in place which would be the case with the -EPO.

I love the dedication!

Bottomed out at 15F last night. After yesterday I'm up to 17.25" on the year, about 6 inches below normal seasonal snowfall. Next 2 weeks look pretty bleak but if we can get one or two minor-moderate events in March, we could certainly hit normal snowfall in these parts; something that has never happened in a 2nd year moderate-strong nina.

Somehow still snowing here in lower bucks. Roads are starting to get slick. Be careful everyone coming home from their super bowl parties.

Down to light snow now but we managed to squeeze out .2” over the last two hours to settle at 3” even on the grass in Levittown. Not expecting any more accumulation as heavier echoes have moved east. Great little storm!

Slowly but surely still accumulating in Levittown faster than melting. Just under 3” on the event, 2.8” officially. Still snowing light-moderate at times. Hope we can hit 3”. Beautiful day outside regardless.

Fwiw the HRRR doesn’t taper things off in SE PA until 5 or 6 pm this evening adding up possibly another inch. But we are kind of just plateau’d right now at 2.2” despite being under a decent band because of the temps and sun melting things as fast as it falls. Still a very nice winter day and expectations have been smashed down this way especially with how warm it has been the last few days. Wiggum rule ftw…

Back to mod snow over the last hour. Up to 2.2” here in Levittown.