The Iceman

Looks like barring redevelopment snow should be pretty much over soon? Looks between 1.5- 2” here all on grassy/cold surfaces. Side roads have a layer of slush beginning to build but mostly just wet. Looks like the heaviest rates set up well n and w of 95 as some meso guidance was hinting last night.

Had a sleet shower move through a little bit ago, waiting on the next batch. Temp down to 40 which is actually colder than the HRRR has us.

HRRR just keeps getting better and better every hour.. bulk of the accumulation falls between the early morning hours until around 9 am but it keeps light snow in SE PA well into the afternoon…

Temp down to 45 here but feels colder.

Temps won’t matter if this thump comes to fruition. Bulk of the heaviest stuff falls overnight into early morning, I’m actually feeling pretty good about this one.

Nam never fails inside 24 hours, lock it in.

Flower show will be cancelled this year due to the massive Haboob’s blowing in from the Lehigh valley. The wildfires up there block out the sun for a time. Delaware river runs dry by June. Tough times ahead.

There is a jet streak right over the area providing extra lift as the precip develops. Agreed it isn’t that juicy of a system but that should enhance rates for a time.

2-4” for most on the latest HREF mean: 4-6 on the ensemble max: I think mt holly will issue advisories on the afternoon update unless they really think it’s going to have trouble sticking due to the recent high temps.

Well it is the Herp a Derp and it’s cousin the HURRR so I wouldn’t count my chickens just yet but if I see 2” out of this system I’m counting it as an epic win.

Mt holly seems to think paved surfaces should retain most of their warmth from today hence why there are no winter weather advisory’s. I think 1-3” on grassy surfaces seems to be a good bet though. Hope the HRRR and other meso guidance ends up being correct and some areas see lollis of 4”. Should be nice to wake up to snow for possibly the last time this winter.

18z were pretty juiced for tomorrow nights event. Walt up in the nyc thread said it’s likely in response to the jet streak over head and the models are picking up on more precip due to that. Looking more likely that most of us in SE PA and especially NJ will see more like 1-2” with possible lollis up to 3-4” in spots as opposed to C-1” white rain. Should at least be a nice wintry day on super bowl Sunday. Let’s keep the trend going at 00z and get this baby to 2-4”/solid advisory level. Keep hope alive!

I’ve skied this time of the year in a driving rain storm on that mountain. It isn’t ideal but as long as they have a good base up there, the skiing should still be okay. Glades will probably be closed but their main trails usually stand up pretty good in the rain. I haven’t checked their conditions in awhile recently though, not sure if they are having as rough of a winter as we are.

I'm hugging the NAM idgaf

Euro is better than 00z, at least most of the area sees some snowflakes. Just need a 50 mile jog north and most of us would have a solid advisory event, it's doable right?

Yep writing was on the wall last week, but it was far enough out in guidance time that it could have reversed... not the case unfortunately as all guidance now progresses the MJO through 4-6 and by the time we get to 7, winter is over and there will be no cold air left to recover. I'm going to actually LOL though if we get a great coastal track in this time period that is all rain because the cold air has left the continent. Kind of like what the GFS shows long range.. Just one final shot in the nuts as Winter 21-22 progresses into spring. This winter definitely could have been worse down our way though. Not too many 2nd year mod-strong nina's even have 1 warning level event so we at least lucked out there unlike further N. And the SNJ/DE folks actually had a good winter snow wise when they are usually on the short end of things typically. Hope you are right wrt it being a Modoki Nino next year. I'll take active SS with seasonable cold and take our chances. Seems like we are well overdue for a winter of sustained Atlantic blocking as well and not just a couple weeks followed by endless +AO/+NAO.

12z ICON is a 15-18 hour storm, snows all day on Sunday into sunday night, haven't seen the snow total maps but it's got to be 6-10" from upper bucks/montco S and E. Only problem is that it's the ICON showing this...blind squirrel has got to find a nut once in awhile right??

At the very least, I think most of the forum will see a period of light snow this weekend even if it likely won't amount to much or anything. Enjoy it, because it very well could be the last snow we see until next winter. GEFS and CFS weeklies are ugly with a strong PV until around mid march. By mid march, you really need a potent system and a lot of luck to produce a decent snowstorm.

What's crazy is that it honestly looked closer to the CMC than GFS through 84 or so imo but the northern vort pushes the SS out to sea instead of phasing it. Just a real delicate set up. Nightmare to forecast. I wouldn't be confident on any solution until we are 48 hours in or we see some kind of consensus between the globals. I mean really, every single global model has a different solution. Yes some are the same outcome wise, but how the storm develops is different on all 5 globals. With so many vorts zooming around with no blocking, I just don't see the models having a good grasp on this storm until we get much closer. I think because of the lack of blocking and lack of spacing, a sheared out E solution is favored at this time though but as the CMC and even GFS has shown at 12z, small changes at H5 are going to have a big effect on the final outcome. We could certainly still get lucky. Seasonal trend definitely favors a Euro/UKMET like solution though at this time.

Spread-shot so far at 12z that really shows how delicate this threat is. The UKMET is well east, CMC is an inland runner, GFS kind of splits the goalposts with a lean east. Pretty big spread on the ensembles still... We are no closer to getting clarity on this event than we were 12 hours ago. I think the CMC solution is the most unlikely though and would be shocked if things went down like that... it also moved like 200-300 miles northwest in one cycle. UKMET gave most of us 8-10" at 00z then this run has us only getting in on the northern vort 1-2" and being well offshore. GFS is the only kind of model with any sense of consistency so far but even that has been bouncing around 50-100 miles each way the last 3 runs. Hopefully the Euro brings a little bit of clarity. If it sticks with the 12z UKMET like solution, I have to think the eastern solutions would be favored at this time. But still lots of room for things to change as subtle changes at H5 are having big implications due to the spacing and timing of the vorts.

12z GFS is a bit more progressive with the SS wave and as a result it's a bit further east with the coastal. SNJ wins again However, still far from a finished product here. Such a delicate set up, I expect we see pretty decent shifts in all directions these next 24-36 hours. I would be happy with 3.5" though, can't say the Lehigh Valley folks would be happy though lol

12z NWS blend of models is more bullish than it was at 6z or 00z on snowfall totals.

doesn't look too far off to me at hour 90, some slight timing differences and as you said less vort interaction but nothing jumps out as massively different. With how fast the flow is right now, I doubt either model has a great read on this event yet. Next 24 hours are going to be crucial as by then all pieces should be well sampled. Euro GFS

last night's UK is also on team GFS/ICON Still so much time left though and I'm not confident until we see multiple runs of the same thing but it was good that 06z GFS improved upon 00z.

I'm not giving up on Sun night/Monday yet. ICON is a shitty model yes, but it shows how we can potentially win with this system. You look at 500 MB and the globals are all over the place with timing of both the NS and SS energy. This could be one that sneaks up inside 4 days as data is better sampled. Need that NS system to dig more like the ICON and the CMC to an extent. And need the SS to not hang back like the ICON. It's a fragile set up as Ralph would say because there is no blocking but there is still room for a snowy outcome. At the very least, may be able to score 1-2" on the N stream energy alone.