The Iceman

RIP Winter 2020-2021 if this comes to fruition. Remember the old adage, "Snow in October, Winter is Over"

Mods feel free to move if this isn't in the right place but I'm just looking for some advice. Right now I'm in a pretty comfy job that is unfortunately very unfulfilling even though I have amazing benefits. I was a met major originally back in college but switched to environmental geography after about 40 credits because I admittedly was smoking too much pot/ doing other things and found that geography was easier and I didn't want to put in the work for meteorology. The only job I could find out of college was in a field completely unrelated to the environment or mapping. I'm actually in accounting now and it's just because it was the easiest/first job available. This has been the theme of my 20's and honestly I'm ready for a change. I was plagued by addiction until I was 25 and have been living sober for almost 5 years now. I just feel like I'm mature enough now to follow my passion this time and complete the major. My worries are how realistic would it be for a school to even take me now? And what would job prospects look like for someone just graduating with a met degree in their mid 30's? Can anyone here offer any guidance or other advice? I'm open to all suggestion even if it's against my goal.

Rest of the week looks fairly above normal. The mid 70's feels balmy this time of the year.

ECM has been straight trash this summer, hard to take it seriously at this point.

Hmmm usually we get the epic trough in late october that lingers through late november that then transitions to ridging for 3 months straight.

Ray up in the NE forum posted his preliminary preliminary winter thoughts yesterday and from what I took from it, it's looking pretty no bueno for winter again this year in these parts. He does say things can certainly change in October, but early signals are pointing to a dud again down here. Not sure how we can manage worse than last year though(1.5")....Hoping my 20 mile move to the north will help me a bit in borderline events.

Shaping up to be the first fall in what feels like a decade that isn't going to be hot as hell up through mid October. Got down to 48F last night in Hopewell.

Looks like the flash flood watches should be extended into the lehigh valley and cut further south. Pretty clear how this event is shaping up and it's n and w of 95.

I went through and counted the filtered tornado reports on the spc website and I believe there are only 51 tornado reports nation wide so far this month. Has to be on pace for some kind of record? Can anyone chime in?

did you see the wrf meso's? all have 95 frozen throughout. war of the globals vs meso's. I think this has good bust potential especially if mt holly sides with the globals.

HRRR continuing to show 95 all snow.

imo the rates shown dynamically cool the surface so even though it shows rain on the map, it's actually heavy wet snow or sleet.

we just got NAM'd for tonight into tomorrow

I had a feeling this one would sneak up even on SE PA. even the warmer models are only showing rain at 33-34. with the snowpack this morning, things could easily be a few degrees colder. good to see the mesos picking up on this.

Couldn't have said it better. Having met Ray before at the Eastern conferences and reading his posts for 10+ years now, I have zero doubt that his measurement was legit. He's as huge a weenie as any but seriously one of the best amateur mets on the entire board(along with yourself). I trust his measurement much more than any john q public report that stuck a ruler in the grass at the end of the storm and called it a day. Now if this total was coming from a certain mountain in Tolland, CT, I'd be skeptical ...

Seems like SW NH was one of the big losers yesterday. My uncle said he finished with 8" in Swanzey. Congrats to all that hit the 30" mark!

My aunt and uncle's house has some elevation in the Keene area(Swanzey) and they too look like they are going to severely underperform on this one. As of 1 PM he said they have light snow with 2.5" on the day on grassy surfaces but on everything else it's basically white rain and has been since 8 or 9 this morning. They were forecasted 12-18". Radar doesn't look promising either for them to even come close to that. They are stuck in that screw zone sandwiched in between that band in VT that looks upslope enhanced and the death band in the SE part of NH through MA that doesn't look to get west enough to hit them. It actually looks like they'll be lucky to see 6"... This same thing happened back in the mid-late 2000's(I want to say 2005 or 2006) when I was up there for an event. I'll have to remember the exact date but it had to be a late December storm because I was up there for Christmas. Forecast was 14-18" with the possibility of 2ft but the same banding structure as pretty much today evolved and we got I think 7 or 8 inches on like 20 hours of light snow. Since it is mid march this time though, light snow won't really accumulate much during the day even if it is below freezing.

Uncle in Keene, NH says theres around 2" so far and that snow has picked up in intensity in the last hour or so. Weenie band setting up reminds me of the one that ripped through SEPA and CNJ last week. Had thundersnow for 3+ hours... Hope everyone that gets nailed by it enjoys and those not in it, take the road trip if you're close enough because you won't regret it

Mt holly has been great this year and even if they don't nail the forecast in the point and click, they almost always mention the chance of their forecast being wrong and give a terrific explanation of why it could happen in the AFD. Really they are my favorite forecasters by far and have a great track record of not only forecasting but educating the general public as well. I have learned so much from them over the years and it's such a shame that the guys don't post over here much anymore. Definitely miss their input.

Receiving 5.5" is significantly different preparation than a coating to and inch which is what he forecasted 24 hours out for us. And preperation regarding plowing and number of snow removal personnel for a 1 to 3 event (which he changed us to 6 hours before the event I may add) is significantly different than a 3 to 6 event for this area. It was a pretty big bust around here. I went out to a local bar last night and everyone I talked to brought up how wrong the weather people were about this storm and how no one was prepared for it. Just because he posts here doesn't mean we all have to suck on his nuts.

Yeah I was in his 1-3 zone that was coating to an inch yesterday afternoon and got 5.5". I really respect Glenn but he did not do well at all in extreme se pa and central jersey.

DTs final call map was completely and utterly wrong in this area. Pretty sure any of us could of done better. He's horrible forecasting for this area. He should stick to South Virginia and forecasting their annual 2 inch storms with the rare 6 inches every 10 years because every time he forecasts here he busts horribly.

I completely get it with him. Boring forecasts don't sell. By hyping everything up, it gets him page views and subscriptions.

i have doubts anyone sees 2 inches let alone 3. JB is clickbait nothing more.