The Iceman

looks like it is blowing slight left of center towards the camera. this is a slight shift from 5 mins ago.

86 kt near the surface in the NW eyewall

I don't think the GFS is out to lunch with the N idea, however I really question the stall off the coast... these wound up systems tend to come in further north on the east coast...yes there is a big ass ridge but I really don't think the models are going to have a great grasp on the track until it peaks strength. fascinating to watch unfold though.

my tropical experience includes Irma, Sandy, and Joaquin for 3 days so every storm that threatens the east coast reminds me of 1 those 3.

12z gfs ensembles signifcant N and E.. 3 members show a NJ LF.. mean though is a shift north from 6z. Interested to see the euro... Edit: don't know why the 9th was posted but the new one is N and E. will try to fix.

For lawn or garden? I just planted some lettuce, radishes, and arugula seeds this weekend during a break in the rain as it was ideal conditions for them. Since it looks like our 90 degree days are done for the year, they should be ok here for a fall harvest. Cooler weather plants are becoming more and more difficult to grow around here though since it seems we jump the transition seasons and don't have enough 40-70 degree days to really good growth. I'm going to try spinach one last time after failing to get decent harvests the last 4 growing seasons but waiting to october since they can't really take temps over 70 or any frost. For lawn, I would wait another week or two before re seeding despite the rain to get the best results.

2 thoughts: 1. Still having a hard time seeing Flo completely stall but as we get closer with more and more models showing this scenario, the chances of it occurring have gone up. The question may shift to how far NW does she get before the stall occurs. I don't think the area especially southern areas are out of the woods yet. 2. despite the tight cluster in guidance at the moment, a shift of 150 miles north would bring dramatically different results for the area. I'd be surprised if the track was set in stone 5 days and strong intensity storms like Flo is projected to reach are notorious for shifting in track. So while it looks like we smoke cirrus at the moment, I wouldn't feel comfortable especially if I was on the coast up here until wednesday. My current thinking is LF in the Va Beach/Norfolk area. I think we see a N shift as we get closer due the ridge breaking down and high intensity storms tendency to move poleward. However, I am not a pro, and these are just my thoughts as a long time hobbyist.

NHC updated cone looks like they are thinking right now this will go against climo for east coast hits. Still a lot of time for change but it seems to me chances of an east coast hit have increased since yesterday.

So is it too early to start a Florence watch? 06z GFS shows the worst case scenario for the area, NE quad rides up the delaware bay,would be catastrophic flooding in the delaware river basin. obviously will change but with how strong the WAR has been, this definitely warrants some concern for flooding at least. this would certainly break the dull weather streak around here that's been in place since April...

Currently 94F with a dew point of 72F. Fall thread?

Kdox has had a rough summer...2nd time being damaged significantly this summer I believe. I don't know if the first time was related to lightning or not. I do the same thing though as it tends to do better with low topped convection.

Things starting to brown near me... intensity of this dry spell is definitely higher than the "wet" spell was down here early month. small chances of rain in the next week but nothing significant in the near future.

Another night where lehigh valley gets an inch of rain while my backyard sees less than .1. I doubt I am even above normal on the summer with rainfall. Paybacks a b**ch come winter

Totally believe you. I dont ever bother with other sources because you guys are the best around here. Just venting my frustration is all, like I said above I know it hasn't been an easy forecast because of the covective nature, it's just been a b*tch trying to plan for the weather lately because of the variability day to day.

Another "heavy rain likely" 60% pops for several days out cut down to 20-30% on the actual day... But 60% pops tomorrow... at least until tomorrow gets here. Red sky just said it best.

i'm sorry but the NWS forecasts beyond day 1 have been horrendous the last 2 weeks for my area. I understand it hasn't been easy due to the convective nature but for legit the 4th time in the last two weeks I have gone from 60-70% pops literally the day before and forecasted 60-70% for multiple days before hand go down to 20-30% when the day comes. Absolutely useless for planning purposes. Here's a note guys, in these situations call for 20-30% pops for days and then increase as necessary...

I'd take that in a minute. Beats the hell out of the dull summer we ve had so far.

another pretty uneventful day yesterday. a few heavy 5 min showers but everything is to the west. Maybe today...

Looks like the moisture should be shifting east this afternoon and especially tonight if you believe guidance. Personally I don't since it has been indicating that for days now and it's been nothing but light showers mostly so I'll believe it when I see it at this point..

Pretty meh thus far and radar doesn't look overly impressive at the moment at least for my area...

Wpc 7 day total forecast... We may need an ark.

So looking locked in now for a fairly sizeable heavy rain event tomorrow. Pretty much a noreaster in mid July. Not something you see every day. Thinking flooding may become an issue towards the end of the week outside of flash flooding. Looking like a lot of moisture for all in the next ten days.

picked up 1.6" of rain in 45 mins yesterday.

raining buckets here in Trenton. Little bit of wind in the beginning but now just deluge of rain.... you can see on radar where the area of heaviest rain is going to set up.

going to be a long afternoon for 295 west to the northeast extension. Looking like the front is slowing down and those heavy thunderstorms are going to train over the same areas until the instability runs out or the front rolls through. there may be some prolific totals in spots... there are already reports of 2-3" in places in an hour or less.