The Iceman

79-80 was an average winter, the rest were crap at least in the 95 area... I didn't look at the snow data for ABE. Not sure it's that 1:1 though of a correlation. None of those are good fits with ENSO. Also, there's a clear trend towards more precipitation in general for the MA/NE likely due to climate change. For here, 3 of the top 5 wettest years were have came after 2010. There's a clear trend in increase of precipitation in certain areas. More evidence of that coming this weekend, with record setting PWATS for met winter likely in place. Excessively wet years are becoming less of an anomaly and more of a norm... BTW jcweather.com is an amazing source for weather history in the philly area.

Going back and reading the threads from the March Madness snowstorms last year today...man that was a fun stretch of winter weather especially for a Nina. If we can get a similar stretch except in met winter this year, it would be historic. I am liking the huge moisture train evident this winter, obviously it has yet to pay dividends but if we can get the NAO to cooperate, we still have the potential for a very special period. Ensembles are still everywhere in regards to the pattern after the 1st. Individual members seem more helpful than the mean right now as there are really 2 distinct camps. One with a -NAO/-AO building in and locking in, the other just a brief period of blocking before jumping right back to positive leading to more of the same as december unless we get lucky. PNA looks to dip neutral but then looks to head positive for the foreseeable future which is a good sign. If we can get the atlantic on board in the next week or 2, we'll be in business. With the SSWE, all bets are off for the end of the month right now into mid january right now. All depends where the cold is displaced. There's a chance it is dumped into europe though which would mean January is would be a wash...

Still looks good for at least that much though every model besides the NAM has shifted the axis of heaviest rain from SE PA to E NJ into SNE. Think the best flooding potential is going to be there though with all time record PWATS in place for met winter, anything is still on the table. I think we'll see totals increase as we get closer. This is a pretty highly anomalous event.

GEFS looks great in the LR, as long as the Aleutian low retrogrades and doesn't drop down a trough in the west. EPS is holding the energy too long in the SW here, it doesn't make sense at all. Funny though with how poor the pattern looks up until the 1st, we still have a few chances to score something. I think this weekend definitely bares watching especially for areas N and W. 6Z GFS is really close to a secondary popping in a very nice location for this area. And with possible blocking in place, this could be one that trends in the right direction. Even if it's rain, this has the possibility to be a disruptive storm. 2-3" of rain on top of what we've had this year, could make for widespread flooding. I'm torn on whether we should root for it to cut though. Very very strong analogs in nino years with a late december torch period...

While the ensemble means haven't looked great the last few days for the next 15 days pattern in the the LR, there is a big variablity in the individual members. Some suggest a period of blocking beginning the 23rd, others suggest that period is transient and the pattern completely unravels by the new year. I bet the SSWE has something to do with that. I think until the effects of that become more clear, no one can really say with certainty the long range(Jan 1st-15th) looks good or bad. Could see our first pattern of real blocking or our first real torch. Both outcomes seem possible.

Need this to get better but if we can get the NAO to dip negative, the swing of the PNA from positive to negative with some blocking would actually be a good indicator for a storm in that time frame.

the clipper showing up on the 23rd has a much better chance to produce than the Xmas/boxing day storm imo could be a nice 2-4" event if we can swing it. Xmas storm needs a lot of work but with cold air nearby it's still a chance. Going to need good timing though in order for it to not be rain. LR ensembles still show the pattern quickly breaking down after a 5 day or so blocking period. massive trough in the west on both the GEFS and EPS towards the end of the runs, continuance from a few days ago. After Xmas period, we likely don't reload again until mid January. Those short little swings are how can score though so the xmas time deserves watching. If we can get a nice 3-6" storm in that time frame, we'll really be looking good. If we get skunked, then all of our eggs will be on the 2nd half of jan into feb which still look pretty good for now. Will still need to see some semblance of long term blocking though as we get close.

gray, cloudy, all around miserable looking. temps are in the low 40s so it feels like a heatwave with no wind lol Christmas threat is looking like our best threat for some time...GEFS also breaks down the pattern there after...and the OP looked like a freakin Nina. I am starting to like the xmas threat though. If we can get the NS to dig more and scour out the pac air, we may be in business. I think rain is a much much bigger threat than suppression.

I don't know about that because I don't see it being warm per say. I see a continuance of where we've been with a progressive flow with cold air but nothing to hold it in place when synoptic systems approach. We will have shots when the NAO dips liken in the 23rd period but are going to need to rely on good timing in order to score for philly and immediate burbs. I don't see it being all that warm though just unfavorable for big snows.

Too bad there is literally no cold air around. Still storm totals of 3-4" totals in places, way more juiced up than any of the other globals.

The GEFS at 12z is doing this same thing unless it has the same bias. We get a brief period of blocking centered around the 23-26th with an arctic outbreak but that leaves us with really only one threat to score. Better than 0 but as we just saw a pattern can look favorable but we just get unlucky. I mean how often does a storm get squashed below DC in early december? But the blocking quickly broke down and we've had no real threats again until now christmas even though it's been cold. I would definitely call the xmas storm a threat at this time, but a lot can change at this range both good and bad irt that storm. After that period though, the -NAO quickly breaks down, heads back towards positive, the SE Ridge begins to build back in. Hopefully the SSWE will give us a sustained -NAO at some point so we can get a parade of threats where we aren't relying on just one to cash in like March of last year but SSW changes could take weeks not days. We don't really know until we get closer. The NAO is going to rule the winter and if it continues to be mainly positive, we will be relying on lucky timing between cold air and precipitation. Just because the pattern doesn't indicate a torch in the LR, doesn't always mean that it's favorable for synoptic snow events as we've seen the first half of this month. I think our best bet is going to be clippers/minor events for the foreseeable future which can be fun even if minor. Hopefully there'll will be signs in the LR ensembles(not the weeklies) of a lasting pattern change, I don't think it being pushed back until mid jan is unrealistic as the euro weeklies showed. Hopefully the SSW can bring change in sooner like you mentioned though.

While the LR doesn't scream torch, all of the cold is shallow/transient. The pattern of cold cold cold warm up, rain, back to cold has no chance of changing with a sustained +NAO. Until we see that, the pattern will continue. Christmas threat has a chance but we will need the timing to be just right, I think coastal hugger/coast plain runner track or suppression will be the case. Good news for inland areas. Hard to get that perfect track without blocking for 95.

I mean, based on the OP's and ENS seemingly delaying the trough in the LR for a week now, I feel it has some merit. Was more a mention towards a pattern change occurring towards the end of the month is extremely unlikely. I know folks(including me) will be hoping for it to be here be Xmas but with each day it's looking more and more unlikely. My point with the weeklies is that it will be closer to mid possibly late january before the trough actually arrives imo. I also am worried that once it arrives, it doesn't have staying power. We get a 2-3 week period that is a great set up but where we need to score before the pattern shifts back... overall punting almost half of winter is a risky proposition. Sometimes it works out and we get crushed, but other times we rely on that 2-3 week period and get skunked like the past 2-3 weeks. I'm big on patterns establishing themselves in fall and early winter, and right now the pattern of the NAO being dominantly positive with small brief dips into negative is not a good thing imo

New eps weeklies a complete disaster. Trough holds off from coming east through Jan 15th. Of course now that they don't look good, people say they suck and should be thrown out

I think the best shot of snow will be the parade of clippers that follow this upcoming synoptic system on thursday. Currently they are too far north, but something to watch in coming days. We can do pretty decent in clippers if we get a good track.

I remember this time last month reading how great things were looking for December so I take these "great pattern is coming in 3 weeks" posts with a grain of salt. It was a good read though. NAO is raging positive, higher than what was projected to be. Ensembles not showing it going negative any time soon either. AO is positive as well and the models are all over the place after it dips slightly negative next week. No real consensus. The Pacific doesn't look too bad but until the Atlantic looks to get in line, I will be skeptical of these epic pattern calls. Yeah it looks seasonably cold but also progressive. Don't see it being much different than the period we just had. Cool and dry.. warm up before synoptic system then repeat. But with cold near by we can get lucky. Wouldnt be expecting anything more than advisory events though. Don't want to sound like a negative Nancy but I think expectations should be tempered until the Atlantic looks a hell of a lot better.

Coastal storm rides up the coast day 9-10 on the euro...freezing line up in greenland though

and if 18z fails throw it out, wait for fresh initialization at 00z...

GFS ticked North, CMC ticked south. Nothing significant though, if anything seems like we are converging on a final solution. Even though the globals waffled in the 7-10 day period...they have had this nailed down pretty well for being 5 days out besides the cmc...still a little bit of time for changes but really looks like the writing is on the wall.

here is mt holly's afd from this morning, there's a reason people consider them one of the best in the country... A+ stuff

yup...during epic patterns we score with nickle and dime events, but like you said we score big around here during pattern relaxation/changes. I mean people were tearing their hair out in january 2010 because we had an 'epic' pattern in place for weeks but it wasn't until the relaxation that we saw the 2 huge ones...

Yup people will be chasing that epic looking pattern in the LR like a junkie in Kensington... I don't buy it either.

Mt. Holly still not calling this one dead on their morning afd. It's a really good read. However we should see changes at 12z if what they are saying has any merit. Seems like they are just keeping their bases covered based on the huge errors inside 4 days we've seen over the last few on top of the heat they likely received from the November surprise storm. This one is dead though imo

EPS members definitely look better than the mean. But it's still getting to the point we need some OP's to start trending that way other than the cmc.

OP Euro was ugly with a capital U. EPS still has enough positive solutions to stay interested though time is running out on this one. The shortwave is over AK...the 00z should have even better sampling. If we don't see meaningful changes by then, we likely aren't seeing any. Stranger things have happened though and we still have the CMC, who knows, maybe those crazy canadiens know something we don't. Riding it though until it folds LOL hey steve, whats the CRAS saying??