The Iceman

I think saturday night has the potential to overperform. The snow maps are based at 10:1 and I would be very surprised if we only saw 10:1 ratios. JB was saying something about 30:1 ratios but even 15:1 would make this a solid advisory event for SE PA. Extreme SNJ may get a warning event out of this..

until this looks better, i'm skeptical of any lasting pattern change.. Feels like we've been seeing the tank to negative forever now. Then once it hits negative it is progressive and bounces right back to positive. Weeklies are promising, though they have been poor this year. MJO isn't as potent luckily but still looks to be moving into an unfavorable phase and by passing 1 and 2. I guess what I'm trying to say is I don't really trust anything past day 15 rn and the GFS has been pretty good at sniffing out pattern changes. I hope you are correct though. Just seems like every time we get a great pattern this year it's in place for a week then we get a hard reset. I hope that progressive pattern changes but I am skeptical at this point until we see a lasting neg nao.

For snow I classify c-2 nuisance, 2-6 is solid event, 6-12 is SECS, 12-24 is MECS, 24+ is BECS. similar to yours. I get Gritty excited for anything over 2 inches though so that's where we differ. For sleet inch or less who cares, 1-3" solid event travel definitely impacted, 3-6+" major event. Roads paralyzed in places. I would love another Vday 07, that storm was so epic even though it was 90% sleet.

LR guidance not looking great after the 3 threats incoming next 10 days or so. Pattern breaks down and we are right where we were. If we don't score in this brief period, we could be skunked through mid February possibly the rest of winter...

pretty much the 12z gfs lol

not a great start to 12z... NAM and ICON both further south giving us all only the WAA snows. would be a C-1" scenario on both with maybe a few 2-3" lollis. Let's hope the GFS comes in better... seems like everytime we need a N trend we don't get it and when we don't want it, it always occurs.

it's snowing for the first time since november yay! hopefully a prelude to the weekend...

can we lock this in...hell of a set up with the duel 1040 highs to the north... Every other global has this storm in one form or another....going to be an epic snowstorm or rainer...looks like a qpf bomb either way. This is the one to watch imo

well the good news is we haven't seen any misses south besides that one a month ago. would be cruel irony for this one to do the same thing...

95 is so close to being in the game as well. Another little tick N and it's on.

18z gefs increased the snow means yet again. Several solutions that show wsw level 4-8"+ snows especially in SNJ

EPS mean backs the OP, several bigger hits thrown in there as well. GEFS is wetter than GFS too. I may be a weenie, but I think many of us will be pleasantly surprised by this storm. Or it will bust and we can cry all next week.

it's too early still to know what ratio potential we have, but with 850's -6 - -9 for most of the area, have to imagine we'd do better than 10:1. Again there are other factors involved like snow growth but we shouldn't lose a flake even if it is light.

wide spread 3-4" with lollis up to 6" in elevation on the Euro. 72 hours out on the EURO and GFS are night/day. We'll know very soon which one is correct.

ye old EE rule FTW except now it's the EN rule

this is what we want to see: As long as we have cold in place, we will do well in this pattern. I don't see the moisture train shutting off.

Looks like we'll see several shots at clippers in the 13-18th time frame followed by another huge threat the 19-21st. This may actually finally be the one. Very good signals showing up on all of the models.

I actually like where we are ATM. Really a 50 mile shift N and we are in the game in SE PA. Very doable. I think at the very least most should see their first measurable snow since November.

Like every system this winter I expect qpf to increase as we get closer. Finally the super juiced systems may help us.

Not just with this storm but check out the LR... doesn't get much better than that. Locked in -NAO/-AO. Gentleman start your snowblowers....

2-4 with the incoming cold would be a nice start to the pattern change...

MECS for SNJ on the CMC. Sharp cut off though. 3-6 for 95. 2-4 to the ne extension. 1-3 NW of there. A bit S from last night but further N than the GFS. Perhaps models coming to some consensus after all?

GFS came way north at 12z. easily a good 100 miles further N. Only gives us a light 1-3 But really not far off from 2-4 or 3-6. Definitely a good jump, lets hope this is the beginning of a trend. So close to being something big too.

I think it all depends how the next storm shakes out. If it comes north, then we will be heading into a pattern that will likely feature storms that do the same. If it is suppressed, then we are in for suppression city cold and dry and a hope and a prayer that we score before the pattern flips again.

I think it's a red flag that the Euro is further SE than even the NAVGEM. FVGFS has been surprisingly consistent as well. Last 4 runs have all brought significant snows to 90% of us here. All is not lost yet...