ensembles are split around day 8. half want to keep the positive NAO and keep the pac garbage pretty much ending winter, and the other half tank the nao and give us a pretty decent look especially for overruninng. A slight step back from 12z yesterday where it was more of a 60/40 split. As ralph said above, anything outside 5 days is a crap shoot. Unless it's a cutter, those always end up verifying 10 days out lol