The Iceman

I'm still not giving up on the 12th yet. Will it most likely fail? yes but still some uncertainty there. I'm going to go a bit weenie to show why I'm still interested but here it goes. The closest model that brings a storm so far is the 12z CMC. It ends up phasing the N stream but just a bit too late. However, take a look at the NAM and RGEM and that piece of energy that phases too late on the CMC is further SE at 84H. Also the GFS doesn't even have that piece of energy Will need some really lucky timing for this one to work out but I don't think the threat is dead, yet. I'll give it until Saturday 00z probably before throwing in the towel. If it does end up sliding harmlessly out to see this would be back to back threats the models sniffed out 8 days in advance and didn't budge.

Still a decent signal for the 12th at least so all is not lost there

Well all the models at 12z backed off on the 12th threat but still a lot of time and with the amount of s/w's on the field, any solution is far from locked outside 2-3 days. Though it's pretty remarkable that the 8th storm locked as a suppression storm from like 7 days out we won't see that consistency the rest of winter...

Thanks for sharing. I still love going through your winter storm archive. One of my favorite winter weather sites. Any chance you'll find the time to update it again? If it's something you're interested in at all, I wouldn't mind helping either since I know it's got to be a lot of work putting all the maps together. It's an awesome resource to relive the past winter storms .

I think it's a combination of futility, the Dec. 17th storm going from 95 MECS to SECS last minute, and the fact the pattern has been somewhat of a tease I think are all leading to frustration but I agree that things are looking rocking for the 2nd half of Jan. Seem's like the clipper train opens up and possibly we can get in on some miller B action. Should be fun times ahead and the build up of cold air in the long range combined with the continuation of arctic blocking is very promising. I still think the 12th bears watching too still. Just have to get through this week and we should be tracking threats for the forseeable future imo get some rest...

I think the 12th is our first real threat of this pattern.

32 and sleet

Where do you get upset from that post? Just my own thoughts. We are still threading the needle with every threat with the marginal cold air in place. Do you see high ku potential within 7 days? I don't with that airmass in place unless we get a perfect track.

Its funny how often we talk of needing to thread the needle without a -nao but you still need do the same thing even with it in place. I personally won't feel warm and fuzzy or hyped about this pattern until something interesting shows up on guidance within 7 days. Right now, looks mostly like cold rains or sheared out messes to the south.

Hope you're correct. The lack of cold air continent wide has me concerned though. Combine that with ocean temps in the atl still above normal and things look pretty bleak snow wise for 95 through at least mid month imo.

Woke up to a dusting outside. Anyone else? Nice surprise.

January looks pretty bleak as long as those series of lows continue to rip into AK. We even get good storm tracks but the entire continent is flooded with pac air. I see talks in other sub forums of SSWE have begun. Winter must really be on the brink...

Just lost power in Hopewell. Merry effin Christmas....

Don't rule out 1-3" Sunday evening se pa and NJ. 3km nam picking up on the low level cold.

Still snowing lightly out there here in Hopewell. Anyone else? Pretty picturesque with the 6 inches or so on the ground.

Yep, I'm thinking that's about it here. I'll be shocked if we see anything on the backside. Fun little event even if a little disappointing. Think we have around 5 inches out there.

Over to IP now in Hopewell.

2.5" in Hopewell snowing heavily.

Man I just drove from Hopewell to Hamilton nj to pick up my girlfriend from work. Just arrived and it is ripping! Easy inch an hour rates. Roads completely caved including 295/195. Going to be a fun ride home! Overall that giant heavy band looks to mean business and mix line is still down in delaware/s nj. Could be a fun 2-4 next hours.

? SE DC is still snowing and I'm almost positive that wasn't supposed to still be the case

I know it's nowcast time and models aren't as useful this close but the nam straight up just sucks for 95 later. Only a hour or two of snow then over to sleet..even a little n and w of 95 goes over to sleet fairly quickly. Hopefully the HRRR is more on point with the WAA snows and the nam is overdone on the warmth.

25F/17DP and overcast. Radar blossoming to the south now.

WAA is going to be the key for 95. HRRR has a nice thump of 6-8" of snow before any changeover. Feeling comfortable at 8-12" up here. Think 95 may end up closer to 4-8" though if the WAA is a fierce as progged.

Made it down to 21F last night. Dew point is 12F currently.

Nice! Good luck to you too! Looking forward to my first storm in the Sourlands! Hopefully the CAD holds up and we stay heavy snow as long as possible. I think we are in pretty good shape for 8-12".