The Iceman

06z GFS was a weenie run and a half. i give it . 24-26th period definitely bears watching as our next threat. It will be interesting to see how this ends up as a coating - 1".

Yup, Euro and NAM only printing out .3" of QPF.... cut in half from 24 hours ago. Kind of expected though with the low drifting further and further NW. The best dynamics with the WAA are shifted with it and the dry air eats away at the rest. Plus it's a really fast moving system, precip arrives around noon saturday and it's basically out of here by 00z. Really limits the potential for how much can actually fall. I just hope the qpf bleeding stops today and we can at least squeeze out an inch considering I've yet to hit an inch on the season. But really any more cut's to qpf and this becomes a near non event.

Yeah you're in a good spot for a decent event. Should definitely be all frozen up there. Still may get a lot of sleet though.

If we get a look like this: That results in this: I think I'll be throwing in the towel for 2020 and rooting for futility.

GFS and NAM take basically an identical track with nearly identical timing, the difference being the GFS is 4 MB deeper with the low. Huge difference though with temperatures. The NAM(and ICON) at 18z saturday has the 95 area in the mid-20's with the LV in the low 20's-upper teens while the GFS at the same time is near freezing already in the 95 area with the LV in the mid-upper 20's. Is it a result of the GFS being more amped than the NAM/ICON thus bringing more warm air? Or are the NAM/ICON just handling the CAD better than the GFS? Will be interesting to see what the euro says.

NAM actually is a decent event for N and W of 95. Pretty much all frozen. Even 95 itself is mostly frozen for most of the storm and only ends as 33-34 degree light rain. Nothing spectacular total wise due to all of the sleet but it would at least be wintry. Something Mt Holly brought up in the AFD is the fact that the storm's later arrival means that Friday night now will be mostly cloud free and could have good radiational cooling conditions. Should help to bottom out temps across the area. Can't hurt. Edit: The ICON is more amped and further NW than the NAM but still has a similar temp profile. It's basically a sleet fest for 75% of the storm ending as a 33-34F light rain for 95. N and W of 95 it's pretty much frozen the entire storm. By the time it gets above freezing, the precip is basically out of here.

6z GFS has the big dog...only 276 hours to go.

Looking more and more like a N and W of 95 event now imo.

Mt Holly's early thoughts: I like where we are at for being at day 5. Seems like a classic 2-4/3-6" snow before turning to sleet/frz rain and ending as light rain/drizzle. Finally a real winter storm to track this week!

Next weekend has the wiggum rule going for it. I think it's looking like a solid thump to ice to light rain/drizzle scenario. Finally a legit winter threat.

My car thermometer read 71 at 2 pm. Was in langhorne pa. Are other areas breaking 70 in the area or is my car thermometer just running hot?

wow some area's may make a run at 70F this weekend particularly sunday if the Euro/CMC are correct. Especially SNJ/DE but even up towards philly and the immediate burbs. Looks like those places are forecasted to be in the 67-68F range already. Pretty impressive considering there will be cloud cover.

Yeah there are encouraging signs across the ensembles, however there is still a lot of variability between members so I wouldn't be surprised if the pattern change gets pushed back(especially if we don't get a -NAO to beat back the SE ridge). Still at least we have the 18-20th time period to watch based on the Wiggum Rule ™ alone..

I'm at .5" on the season. Beginning to wonder if I'll crack 5"...

I hope this post can be bump trolled but it looks like January is a complete punt at this point. Nothing at all worth tracking except cutters and AN temps. Have to hope things start to improve in the LR in the next week...

Im in new Hampshire where they've had 25" in December before I arrived only for it to rain and erase their entire snowpack in the 4 days that Ive been here. Supposed to snow and sleet 5-8" the day after I leave too lol

The descent towards "March will be rocking" has begun.

funny enough, if you look at the AO, NAO, and PNA forecasts on the NCEP page, you'd think we're heading in the right direction.

Last 24 hours have been a complete disaster in the long range. No end in sight of the PAC trough on the GEFS and it's gotten worse every run since 12z yesterday matching the EPS. I had a feeling the GEFS was being too quick in breaking down the PAC, just have to hope the idea comes back in the coming days so that we are back in the game by mid January. I think this ratter pattern would sting a lot less if Dec.1-2nd didn't bust horribly around here. But man, just not a whole lot of positives to talk about for at minimum the next 2(and likely 3) weeks.

^^ probably the best shot of snow for the rest of the month. Looking like we punt the next 2 weeks at least. Long range ensembles show the pac improving as we head into early January but you have to wonder if that is too quick of a breakdown. I'm skeptical right now that the west coast trough will be as transient as currently depicted. One positive is that the ensembles are showing blocking in the AO and NAO area's through the end of the run so we have that going at least. Overall though think we see much of the same, warm/wet and cool/dry until the PAC gets in better shape. I'm thinking it won't be until mid January until we get the pattern where we want it. Let's see where we are in 2 weeks before hitting the panic button.

Yeah looking like the WAA thump on Tuesday is our best shot of anything frozen in the next 2 weeks. Figures that as soon as we get the Atlantic to cooperate with a -NAO and -AO, the pacific decides to go to garbage muting all of the atlantic's positives. Frustrating start. Have to hope that PAC air invasion is transient... Otherwise another winter of azz is on tap.

Keeping an eye on what I'm already dubbing The Iceman's Birthday Storm. Fun fact, in the 28(about to be 29) years I've been alive, it has never snowed on Dec. 17th > 1inch in my backyard. Can this year break the streak? 12z Euro gives us a really nice thump to ice to rain back to snow which would be a good hit for this time of the year. We really aren't going to get a good read on this storm until this weekend because this weekend's storm sets the table for this event. Expect a bunch of changes in the coming days. Definitely best looking threat we've had this year though.

Just saw this haha but I'm really loving the team this year as well. We are dominating possession most games and are winning despite many of our vets being snakebitten scoring wise. I also think bringing up Frost and Farabee was a great move. They make their share of mistakes but I think they've been improving every game even if the scoring isn't quite there yet. I can see frost being a 30+ goal scorer eventually with his wicked wrist shot and Farabee reminds me of the winger version of Coots when he was that age with his smart 2 way play. Hart is finally playing consistent and has really made himself the clear #1 this past month. The defense is the best we've had in years, the Niskenan trade was an absolute steal. Him and Provorov are a legit first pair which is something we have lacked in years past. As long as Hagg stays away from the line up and we don't do something stupid like trade Ghost, the defense should continue to be solid and only improve as the year goes on as guys like Sanheim and Myers gain even more experience. I really like offensively that we are getting scoring all up and down the line up. No one is putting up big numbers(save for TK) but the depth scoring is there to balance it out. And all of this is in spite of playing in an entirely new system from years past. I still think they haven't adjusted fully to it but once they do, watch out. Overall this team really reminds me of the Blues last year with their depth and if Hart continues his strong play and gives us the ability to steal games with his goaltending, we could be serious contenders this spring.

Yeah the models in general are only good for showing there is potential for a synoptic event in that time frame. Relying on details is futile since there are usually changes in events that are in the day 4-7 range that can make significant changes to the outcome of the next storm. Especially with how fast the flow is right now due to no blocking. I don't trust the models at all past day 4- 5 right now since small errors in timing can have big consequences for an event. Even in the day 4-5 range, we've already seen some drastic changes this season. Just look at this past Monday's storm,; the models were changing with every run right up to the storm beginning, and they were pretty significant changes.

Imagine if this comes to fruition lol