The Iceman

Poconos get rocked on the 12z euro. Almost everyone sees some flakes though. This is pretty much the best case scenario for this week imo. That 50/50 high isn't going to allow it to escape much further off the coast.

Yep, I took a break over the holidays from model watching, hoping the good looks we saw last week advanced in time and showed signs of lasting... nope. Instead it looks like we get a brief period of -ao/-nao/+pna with a longshot opportunity around the 9-10th(and we still don't have a real cold source for that) then we slide into typical Nina climo. It's what I was worried about when people were calling for a front loaded winter. We'd strike out because even above average looks can be hard to materialize in December. Then we'd waste our prime climo on the typical nina pac puke look. Hopefully that nina look is just as transient as our favorable period and we flip flop throughout winter, but I have my doubts. I can totally see the pattern changing again the 3rd week of Dec and not looking back..

Given my expectations are zero, I'd say that's a good bet All I really want is a warning level event(6"), and this winter would be cool in my book.

Recorded my first "trace" this morning with some flurry action on the way to work.

Reading around the winter forecasts released so far, it seems like the general agreement is our best shot to score is going to come in the first half of winter. Almost everyone is in agreement that Feb will be a blowtorch which is usually our biggest snow month based on climo so that alone means we're likely heading for below normal. Honestly if we finish between 10-20" on the year with most of that coming in the Dec-Jan timeframe, I'd call this year a win. Expectations are set super low this year. After last years blanking, any snow will be a win. The thought of back to back winters with single digit snow totals is depressing...

@Ralph Wiggum you doing a winter forecast this year? Always enjoy reading your thoughts.

1.07" at home in Hopewell so far. Round 1 looks like it'll be out of here before 6 or so.

For shit's and giggles I dug through every time in snowed in PHL in October since 1884 and the corresponding winter totals. Outside of the 2 duds(72-73 and 11-12), it's actually fairly encouraging albeit a very small sample size. So it has snowed(T or more) 15 times in October in PHL since 1884. However it has only snowed in October 4 times in the last 50 years(1970) and it just so happened 2 of the worst winters ever in these parts corresponded with October snow. Most snowfall in a following winter was 41.8" in 1957-1958 Least was Trace(0) in 1972-1973. Median of those 15 years was 20.9", right around average. Mean of those 15 years was 22.3", a little above average. So even the small sample size doesn't really even point in the direction of October Snow = Winter Cancel. I'm sure someone else can dig through the record for NYC but I bet they'd be similar.

For shit's and giggles I dug through every time in snowed at PHL in October since 1884 and the corresponding winter totals. Outside of the 2 duds(72-73 and 11-12), it's actually fairly encouraging albeit a very small sample size. So it has snowed(T or more) 15 times in October at PHL since 1884. Most snowfall in a following winter was 41.8" in 1957-1958 Least was Trace(0) in 1972-1973. Median of those 15 years was 20.9", right around average. Mean of those 15 years was 22.3", a little above average.

RIP Winter 2020-2021 if this comes to fruition. Remember the old adage, "Snow in October, Winter is Over"

Mods feel free to move if this isn't in the right place but I'm just looking for some advice. Right now I'm in a pretty comfy job that is unfortunately very unfulfilling even though I have amazing benefits. I was a met major originally back in college but switched to environmental geography after about 40 credits because I admittedly was smoking too much pot/ doing other things and found that geography was easier and I didn't want to put in the work for meteorology. The only job I could find out of college was in a field completely unrelated to the environment or mapping. I'm actually in accounting now and it's just because it was the easiest/first job available. This has been the theme of my 20's and honestly I'm ready for a change. I was plagued by addiction until I was 25 and have been living sober for almost 5 years now. I just feel like I'm mature enough now to follow my passion this time and complete the major. My worries are how realistic would it be for a school to even take me now? And what would job prospects look like for someone just graduating with a met degree in their mid 30's? Can anyone here offer any guidance or other advice? I'm open to all suggestion even if it's against my goal.

Rest of the week looks fairly above normal. The mid 70's feels balmy this time of the year.

ECM has been straight trash this summer, hard to take it seriously at this point.

Hmmm usually we get the epic trough in late october that lingers through late november that then transitions to ridging for 3 months straight.

Ray up in the NE forum posted his preliminary preliminary winter thoughts yesterday and from what I took from it, it's looking pretty no bueno for winter again this year in these parts. He does say things can certainly change in October, but early signals are pointing to a dud again down here. Not sure how we can manage worse than last year though(1.5")....Hoping my 20 mile move to the north will help me a bit in borderline events.

Shaping up to be the first fall in what feels like a decade that isn't going to be hot as hell up through mid October. Got down to 48F last night in Hopewell.

Looks like the flash flood watches should be extended into the lehigh valley and cut further south. Pretty clear how this event is shaping up and it's n and w of 95.

We got a squall near the end that brought the heaviest wind, I wish I saved the radar grab. It was like a severe thunderstorm for 20 mins. Then it passed and we got the backside winds but they weren't nearly as strong as that last squall. I want to say it remained in the 30-40 MPH range after the rain ended. It was a really tense 20 mins or so though and it really tore my area up.

My cousin went down to his place in Cape May and took this video at the height of the storm: https://www.instagram.com/p/CDgZyfSJN4q/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Finished with 3.14" of rain in Hopewell. The real story though ended up being the wind. Multiple large trees down on my street. Power not expected back until August 9. Trenton recorded a 58 mph gust but I'd estimate we saw a bit higher than that. Looked more in the 70 mph range but I don't have my weather station set up yet at the new house so it will remain a mystery. Really great little storm that exceeded my expectations.

Mt Holly thinking the winds could overperform inland

12z Euro is the ideal track for heavy rain. Low tracks right through NJ, albeit as a tropical storm. Deluges the entire area though. Pretty evident ticks west continue across all guidance.

Very pleasant evening... perfect for the fire pit. Currently 70F with a dew point of 48F.

Thinking today will be the first 90 in many locations.

6z 3k NAM for later this evening... Round 3?