The Iceman

Hmmm usually we get the epic trough in late october that lingers through late november that then transitions to ridging for 3 months straight.

Ray up in the NE forum posted his preliminary preliminary winter thoughts yesterday and from what I took from it, it's looking pretty no bueno for winter again this year in these parts. He does say things can certainly change in October, but early signals are pointing to a dud again down here. Not sure how we can manage worse than last year though(1.5")....Hoping my 20 mile move to the north will help me a bit in borderline events.

Shaping up to be the first fall in what feels like a decade that isn't going to be hot as hell up through mid October. Got down to 48F last night in Hopewell.

Looks like the flash flood watches should be extended into the lehigh valley and cut further south. Pretty clear how this event is shaping up and it's n and w of 95.

We got a squall near the end that brought the heaviest wind, I wish I saved the radar grab. It was like a severe thunderstorm for 20 mins. Then it passed and we got the backside winds but they weren't nearly as strong as that last squall. I want to say it remained in the 30-40 MPH range after the rain ended. It was a really tense 20 mins or so though and it really tore my area up.

My cousin went down to his place in Cape May and took this video at the height of the storm: https://www.instagram.com/p/CDgZyfSJN4q/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Finished with 3.14" of rain in Hopewell. The real story though ended up being the wind. Multiple large trees down on my street. Power not expected back until August 9. Trenton recorded a 58 mph gust but I'd estimate we saw a bit higher than that. Looked more in the 70 mph range but I don't have my weather station set up yet at the new house so it will remain a mystery. Really great little storm that exceeded my expectations.

Mt Holly thinking the winds could overperform inland

12z Euro is the ideal track for heavy rain. Low tracks right through NJ, albeit as a tropical storm. Deluges the entire area though. Pretty evident ticks west continue across all guidance.

Very pleasant evening... perfect for the fire pit. Currently 70F with a dew point of 48F.

Thinking today will be the first 90 in many locations.

6z 3k NAM for later this evening... Round 3?

Very surprised the derecho was uneventful for you. Lots of damage across lower bucks county.

Can't wait to check my weather station when I get home to see what kind of wind gusts were recorded. 64 MPH reported about 5 miles to my south in Bristol.

The HRRR brings a round 2 complex through SE PA in the 23z-00z time frame. Doesn't look nearly as potent as what just came through though. Other meso's are more potent this evening but none of them had this morning's complex as organized as it became. I'm a bit skeptical that the atmosphere can recover in time for another round of severe. However, another round of heavy showers with a rumble or 2 doesn't seem out of the question this evening.

Peco reporting almost 250K outages already based out their outage map. Edit: Up to 320K+ on the last update.

Here at work in Trenton, sky got pitch black and we got some pretty decent wind gust. I would estimate in the 50 MPH range, will be interesting to see what the airport reports. All in all not too bad of a boomer and we still have power at the office. 95% chance it's out at my house lol

I've done the same thing; albeit it may of been from tailgating too hard before hand...

I watch every Flyers and Eagles game even if I have to watch it on DVR. I watch about 25% of Sixers games mostly at the end of the season/playoffs(I'm bandwagon for them won't lie) and probably 50% of the Phillies games the majority coming after hockey/basketball are done. But as far as NBCSP goes, the Flyers are by far my most viewed team on that channel even though it probably evens out to the same amount of games as the phillies due to the length of the season. I just can't commit myself to watching all 162 without fail.

I went through and counted the filtered tornado reports on the spc website and I believe there are only 51 tornado reports nation wide so far this month. Has to be on pace for some kind of record? Can anyone chime in?

Looks like we possibly begin to warm up next week. Taking a run at 80 by Tuesday possibly and maybe taking a run at our first 90 by next Friday if long term guidance is to be believed. Time to dust off/install those air conditioners this weekend as it's looking like memorial day is going to usher in summer. Would be cool if we finally see some convection. This year's severe season has been severely(pun intended) lacking.

Currently 13.49" on the year at PHL. Ranked #102 out of the last 136 years at this point of the year. This is a cool little website for PHL climo if you've never seen it: http://jcweather.com/100rainytd.php

Looks more like Sunday night late afternoon at least. Euro is pretty amped with it. Show's another round of widespread 1"+ rains. That could cause problems if tomorrow doesn't. At the very least creeks/rivers will be running high after tomorrow. Not sure they'll be much lower come sunday night. I will say that there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel. Looks to be a pattern change after that system.

12z Euro, backed off a bit on the higher totals but still pretty robust especially across 95 and the pocono's. UKMET still VERY robust GFS is not as gung ho around 95 but still showing the higher amounts in the higher elevations 3km NAM shows the heaviest amounts just NW of 95 Overall looking like a good bet for widespread 1-2" rain mostly falling in a 6 hour period. Some places in the LV/Pocono's could see 3-4" lollipops imo. Should be a fun little storm with the wind and rain.

Updated Day 1-3 QPF map from WPC No local creeks/rivers forecasts to get above action stage for now, but will be interesting to see their rise on Thursday into Friday.